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Wednesday, August 31, 2011

America's Bankrupt Banks(inside the meltdown)

Part I


Part II


Part III


Part IV


Part V


http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/28/magazines/fortune/boyd_bear.fortune/


Taken from Wikipedia

 
The Bear Stearns Companies, Inc. (former NYSE ticker symbol BSC) based in New York City, was a global investment bank and securities trading and brokerage, until its collapse and fire sale to JPMorgan Chase in 2008. The main business areas, based on 2006 net revenue distributions, were capital markets (equities, fixed income, investment banking; just under 80%), wealth management (under 10%), and global clearing services (12%).

Bear Stearns was involved in securitization and issued huge amounts of asset-backed securities, which in the case of mortgages were pioneered by Lewis S. Ranieri, "the father of mortgage securities".[1] As investor losses mounted in those markets in 2006 and 2007, the company actually increased its exposure, especially the mortgage-backed assets that were central to the subprime mortgage crisis. In March 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York provided an emergency loan to try to avert a sudden collapse of the company. The company could not be saved, however, and was sold to JP Morgan Chase for $10 per share, a price far below the 52-week high of $133.20 per share, traded before the crisis, although not as low as the two dollars per share originally agreed upon by Bear Stearns and JP Morgan Chase.

The collapse of the company was a prelude to the risk management meltdown of the Wall Street investment bank industry in September 2008, and the subsequent global financial crisis and recession. In January 2010, JPMorgan discontinued use of the Bear Stearns name.

TEH : Most watch movies, I watched these good collections of video clips ... nothing could beat the suspense of collapse of Bear Stearns, LehMan Brothers and much more.

TEH

Get Rich Stock : DVM II



DVM I : Click here

During my DVM-I, it dived during 0.25 to 0.17 in a day!! It was 4th Aug and I think I was Friday as I was having my first class for my cohort-1, where I joked that I have just written about DVM moments ago. Haha... let see how I should continue with my DVM-II ... I need to imagine myself in a kopi-tiam with many KLSE-kaki gathered for stock-chat ... and DVM is their fav's pick! Hmm ...




DVM - II : It is at 0.100 now ... time to bet on it another round? Sai-lang ... time to get rich with potential at least 50% profits in days!!

TEH

Kuantan vs Penang

Venue : McD, Teluk Cempedak. Kuantan


MERDEKA ... MERDEKA ... MERDEKA .... err ... got freedom in Malaysia meh? Even stock market also controlled and manipulated la. Happy Merdeka to my country, anyway. Got freedom of speech meh?

Kuantan vs Penang vs Kota Kinabalu

Good morning ... woke up 5am, it is cold here, walking on the beach. I am thinking if I may want to retire here instead of going back to Sabah. Yes, I do still have a beach apartment(Melinsung) in Sabah which I bought for retirement purposes. It is currently vacant and has been vacant for 3 years now, collecting dust. Haha. I like Kuantan and this is my second trip here this year itself. Besides Kuantan, I do like Penang(born there, speaking my dialect, food, beach and modernised lifestyle).

I love nature very much ... I could be in peace at the beach, listening to waves. I do like river too ... and moutains, with waterfalls, of coz. My word WATERFALLS(instead of knives) being used as it came natural to me. Kota Kinabalu provides me all the above(and more). Now I discovered that Kuantan could provide me the similar environment too .... in smaller scale, that is.From Kuantan here, I could always drive up to Trengganu or down to Mersing/Desaru. So, Kuantan is a good alternative for retirement.

How about Penang? I will be driving up tmr to Penang and that will be my fourth trip to Penang in less than 2 years back to KL here. To my new readers, I was born in Penang-la .. so, I do speak Penang hokkien at home with mom/aunties. But, I was in KL since 4 years old(just like my son, born in Sabah but in KL when he was 4 last year!!). So, I do like Penang ... and the food, of coz. I am not a glutton, actually. So, I do not mind much about food. A simple chicken rice or char-kuey-tiaw will be very nice.  Penang is flat ... no moutains ... no river for me to explore.

Back to my trading plan ... can I find students to teach trading/investment in Kuantan? Or in Kota Kinabalu? I am not sure if there is a market here, I mean ... the number of traders in 'small' places should be lesser and their appetite for KNOWLEDGE is much lesser. The relax tak-apa-attitude in Sabah making me move to KL, to continue my learning and goal of teaching. KL is the happening place where people shown urgency to learn, to improve and upgrade themselves. Perhaps we could see that in big city like Penang, JB or Ipoh too. But ...Kuantan? Hmm ...

I might retire from my current teaching Math job by 55-58 yrs old. But, I wish to continue to teach and prefer to teach trading/investing. By then, I will have been in market for 15 years. I should be much more expereince and I dont know if this blog is still available. Haha ... I dont even know if I am still 'around'? We could only plan at the moment.
If I could afford, I might get a small apartment here in Kuantan, flying back to KK once a while ... and in the mean while stay put in KL(my bro/sis still here). Once a while too, I could drive up to Ipoh/Penang to teach some newbies about trading!! That will be ideal ...

JB? I never consider JB ... hmm ... I dont like Singapore. I dont like the kiasu and kiasi mentality of Singaporeans. Not all are such but many are. I was reading about property bubble in Spore and the spill-over to JB. Besides, the cost of living in JB is much higher!! I wont mind driving down to JB to have a 'public-talk' and meet some of my readers then. Not staying in JB, please.

What do I need now is to re-plan my retirement plan of staying in KK ... isolating myself at a small place in Papar(small town in Sabah).

Few more things in mind ... a library, a bowling alley, a stadium. I like those in Sabah ... I could go to Donggongon(small town) or Papar's library, sit there for hours. I do have bowling alleys in KK to play my game and yes, a stadium to watch games like football, badminton and such -'live'. Of coz we have all these in KL and most update and in bigger scale. To me, big doesnt mean good or the best to suit a simple me?

Well, it is those days that I am not thinking of markets or stocks. Haha .... relaxing to think of what's next?

I shall be in Penang tmr, so anyone want to lim-teh ... we can make arrangement to meet, ok? We could talk about stocks and experience in tradings but not questioning me about your stocks, please. Haha.

It is almost 7am ... time to go back to hotel as kids/wife should be up soon.

off
TEH

p/s : I will 'transfer' this post to m personal blog later. I forgot that this blog is mainly for trading? Or must it be?

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

Happy Holiday

SELAMAT HARI RAYA to all my muslim-readers.

Sesiapa ada open-house, jemput-la saya ... hehe

Maaf zahir dan batin.

3.15 pm : At Temerloh's Secret Recipe as I am meeting a student here, and a 2-hours class, I will drive to Kuantan for a night there. As wife wants to go to Cameron, on the way back, I will be teaching him another 2-hours tmr before heading to Cameron. A night at Cameron, I shall be driving to Penang ...

anyone want to bring me for bowling ...?? Kuantan or Penang?

TEH

Monday, August 29, 2011

My Learning Adventure

There are many books, magazines, websites, blogs, broker reports and analysis, newletters and such for my reading purposes. So, I m overloaded with so-called resources, lacking in time to keep up with. Nevertheless, I have enjoyed my journey in reading about these financial markets related news and issues. So, I hv no complain ... the only thing I might 'complain' will be I am only given 24 hours per day. With full-time job, part time classes, analysing charts, readings and family to juggle ... 24-hours is certainly very short. I have to be specific on things I want to spend my time on, which will ENHANCE my knowledge, which will help(directly or indirectly) me in my future learning ...

Don't Stop, Don't Give Up!



Bookfest by Popular at KLCC

Books : I have invested in many many books since I was out from Uni. I only started to read few books when I was 26 and as my English is not good, I could not comprehend many things I read. Reading was alien to me. Majority of Malaysians DO NOT read ... those reading are for their exams. Since young, we are used to study-hard only when exams is nearing. I am an exception(not proud of it, tho) as I do not study much of textbooks and such. In fact, I do not study for exams. I studied for interests!!

How do I started my reading habit(forcefully) is personal and I will write that in my personal blogs. What I will want to point out here is to INSPIRE and ENCOURAGE those young ones to develop/cultivate the habit of reading!! It could be a book or a magz, it could be from e-book or net, doesnt matter. It is the joy of reading that is important.

Having said that, what we read is equally(if not, much more) important. Reading is like ... nurturing our brain. Serious!! We are what we read(or watch or eat ...). I read motivational books at my early years of reading. I was 26 then, struggling with a book "Magic of thinking big". It took me two years plus to complete reading it. I do not have a habit to finish a book unless it is those interesting books, with lots of jokes, comical acts and such. Haha ...

Back to trading books ... hmm ... I prefer to buy books by local writers/authors. I do ask all my turtles to buy Pauline's book "Fear and Greed", which I will share with them someday. That is a good book to understand why stocks fluctuate and such. I m not a promoter and do not side any books --- but I m a Malaysian in heart, I prefer support local authors. I do have a good collectiion of local books written on 'money', 'financial', stock markets ... tradings and investments related books.Plenty!!

Why bought so many books? Isnt a few is enough?

YES .. a do believe buying a few good books to read and apply are sufficiently enough. You see, I am in different path. I PLANNED to be a trainer(in trading and investment) ... or a cikgu, teaching trading one day. I said one day ... as I planned that 5 years ago, even before I know what market is!! Haha. Plain dreamer, right? Or am I?

You see, I AM teaching 16 of them now and more to come next month. Teaching is MY PASSION. If I learn bowling, I want to coach. Since I am good and love Maths, I teach Maths. Simple as that!! At the moment, I m into trading ... so, my 5-year goal to start teaching succeed. Whether I could extend my teachings in tradings or not, it is up to the performances of my turtles. Haha. Actually, they are my 1st batch of trading. My actual cohort-0 do not learn technical, do not learn TA ... but full 7 classes of FA!!

One of them asking me what books I could recommend for TA. Again, I do not want to point out one particular book as I am NOT a promoter. I want to remain neutral. I will personally tell them. Yes, my turtles will have direct access to me .. things I do, things I read and things I analyse.

Books ... please grab some for your readings. Motivational and self-help books is essential as MAJORITY of us fail due to our MINDSET and ATTITUTES. Read more good books, reduce those dramatic, fiction books. Input your brain with good POSTIVE words in daily basis ... seriously, you cant be good in your trading if you dont even understand YOUSELF and how your brain works!

Good time to indulge myself with my books(overbought - RSI above 70. haha). And the sight-seeing will open up another new windows to my sight!

TEH

p/s : I am compling on books that I have(some not read) and for those novices/newbies who really want to know what books I will recommend, please write to me personally at cpteh@yahoo.com I will just send you my book-list but it is up to you if you want to buy any.

Balik Kampung

Morning ... market half day today. KLCI up 3 points.

MEGB : Dropping 9% further today to new low at 1.39 now.
Just watching those falling as after Raya, many will be back from 'balik kampung'.

9.15 am : MEGB is diving ... at 1.36 now, touched new low at 1.34. There is no way we could know how low it could go ... still giving good dividends? Still defensive? Hmm ... buy?

Axiata : No activities much, at 4.70. Topping up on her as she is in RED.

CIMB : Grabbed her done today too.

4.20 pm : Just came back from KLCC to shop for boookss ... yes, we buy things during cheap-sales and many books I grabbed discounted from 20% to 70%. Oopss ... over-spending on one item. Shouldnt I diversify? INVEST in ourselves FIRST before thinking of investing in stock-markets.

KLCI up 2+ points and HSI up almost 300 points now.

Axiata : Done more at 4.65-4.68 today. Closed at 4.72 to form a doji today. Will check on Friday to slowly clear her as I m holding too much on one counter! Focus vs Diversify?

YTLLand : Rebounded to 1.01 now, one of my turtle just e-mail me to say he bought her at 0.990. Will check with him on Friday.

Supermax : Closed at 2.80, reversal signs and time to grab back.

MEGB : Closed at 1.32, touched 1.31. It downed almost 14% today, ok? Time to consider ...

Public Speaking : It is scary!!

Public-talk : Someone gave me this suggestion ... instead of a class, I should give a public talk on certain topics I have written in my blog. Err ... hhmm ... it is not really a 'bad' idea but due to my SHALLOW knowledge(oopsss ..), I might get some rotten-eggs thrown to my face, some flying shoes and perhaps some dirty underwears too. I dont need that public humilations!! Haha.

Ok ok ... I will consider talking about simple strategy ... I will call it EXTREMIST - a do or die. Haha ... serious, I was thinking about his suggestion(of the talk) and this topic came to my mind. I dont even mind writing an e-book to be sold cheaply for sharing purposes. One more thing, I m a joker-la and NOT your normal conventional traders who follow many strict rules blah blah. YOu might get disgusted, offended, blurred, insulted ... gosh ... help me to think of more NEGATIVE normal brain will channel to when they PAID money to hear some B-S which against their beliefs!! That is my main phobia ... fear ... as our Malaysians brain are NOT opened. They only want to read or listen to things THEY WANT TO HEAR. That will be difficult ... as I want to have the freedom to ... speak? That is public speaking to me, ok??

TEH

Sunday, August 28, 2011

Trading Ideas : Oversold stocks

There are many oversold stocks as KLSE dives. Going for counter-trend trading ...

To consider : Tenaga, CIMB, GenM, Puncak, YTLLand, WCT, Armada, MEGB, Jaks, Parkson, Affin, Mas, AirAsia, Sunway, Supermax ...

Note : Not in order of preference.

For less riskier trading, go for bigger-caps stocks which oversold.

These are some trading ideas in my mind and different stocks should be traded differently. As for my turtles/students ... one day, I hope they could know what homework to be done with the given list above. That is my 'job' ... to teach them how to see good trades but as we are TIP, decisions are ultimately theirs.

Those who really which to know what homework should be done, could be done and trade(not random and blindly), you may want to join my CHEAP trading class next month. For those who have their names in KIV, I will send all of you more details. Thanks.

MU 2 - Arsenal 0 and it is not even half time yet.
TEH

Trading Class


Quote :" Knowledge shared is knowledge gained.
Once knowledge is gained,
it is always yours"
taken from Laura Maya's book
Cohort-2 : Trading Classes - Basics of technical analysis

Date : 9th Sept and 23rd Sept

Time : 7.30pm to 10pm

Fees : RM150 per hour(shared by no of people)

Venue : Subang Jaya

Contact  : cpteh@yahoo.com

Selamat Hari Raya and Happy Holiday

TEH

Saturday, August 27, 2011

Waterfall Watch

Quotation : We can become more successful by putting our EGOs down,
sharing knowledge AND listening
to each other.
by : tsem tulku rinpoche


CIMB : Actively traded. Sharp dive with whatever support breaking. But ... the good news could be the selling might be over soon and technically, it might rebound. RSI at 13, it is ridiculous. Najib might be busy preparing for Raya and perhaps I should visit him during the open day and to ask him personally if he is having a fight with his brother. How could you let CIMB to bleed, brother?

CIMB shares dip on foreign investors' selling
Published: 2011/08/27

The recent decline in CIMB Group Holdings Bhd's share price was due to selling by foreign shareholders amid concerns of slower growth, says its chief executive, Datuk Seri Nazir Razak.

"I had expressed some caution over the environment and CIMB's intention to move cautiously and maybe, some foreign investors, interpreted that as slower growth. "If they valued CIMB for high growth, then maybe, they would want to reduce their holdings in it," Nazir told reporters after distributing 5,000 special CIMB Touch 'n Go Cards to motorists at the Gombak Toll Plaza, here today.

CIMB has a foreign ownership of 38.4 per cent.

"The share price is determined by investors. What we do is to manage the company over the long-term and also be as transparent as possible in terms of our strategy," he said.

CIMB's share price dropped a staggering 11.2 per cent over the week to close at RM7.04 on Friday and also marked a new one-year low.

Asked about a possible threat to growth in Asia due to the US position of instituting no new measures to boost the economy, Nazir said the probability of a double-dip recession is reasonably high.

He said a double-dip recession this time would affect the world and no economy would be able to offset the pressure as in the 2008 crisis.

"The bottom line is in Malaysia, we are fortunate that the banking system is robust and the economy is well-balanced. So, I think that even a double-dip won't be so severe in the country," he added.

Nazir said that people have to handle such an environment sensibly in terms of balancing their own finances and reducing debt. -- Bernama




RHBCap : The slling is not over. RSI 22 with everything pointing downwards. Watching at RM7.85, breaking this will be better. The volume is not really high(as of 23rd and 24th June) and we do need to wait for the dust to be cleared. At RM10, Maybank and CIMB were 'forced' to accept her but claimed it is too expensive. At RM8 now, will Maybank or CIMB be interested again? Perhaps RM7 should be cheap enough?


Tenaga :  Showing some signs of rebound in few days time. Checking at RM5.20 or below and and early signs of reversal, I will like to have her. Hopefully, by then Axiata taken profit at RM4.90-RM5 and to keep Tenaga.


YTLLand : Yes, I was waiting for a huge volume selling and yesterday, YTLLand came alive being no 13th most actively traded stocks. It has been looong time you dont see her at top-20. The selling might not be over yet, so we shall check her at 0.90 level. With RSI 13 at 0.94, at 0.90 RSI will be going to 10 level. FEAR factor? Game over?

Google-ad : I am glad that google has sent me an e-mail to let me know that my first cheque is on the way!! Yeah ... Thanks google and thanks to those click-click on my advertisements.

So there could be around 800 readers now visiting here. Out of the 800, by giving away 50% discount(haha ... like how some analysts pegging the fair values of some stocks - discounted values!), I could have around 400 regular readers now. Out of the 400 readers, 80% of them here only interested to read about THEIR stocks(rather than sharing and learning), that will be only ... hmm ... 80 readers!! Wow ... from 80 of them, I have the chance to 'coach' 8 of them personally. So that is only 10%. Hence, next month ... targetting another 10% for my SEPT trading class, that 80-20 concept which I used could be applied.

80-20 concepts works well in many situation. Only 20% of those attended courses will learn to use the system(s) well. Only 20% of the readers here are regular and appreciative. Haha.

6.30 pm : Just came back from a lunch appointment with my hard-working new turtle, BL who drove all the way from Kepong to Subang Jaya to have lunch(on him, of coz! haha) with me ... and I do have classes from 1.30pm to 5.30pm after that, ok? I am tired ... phew! talking about 'busy' and tired'.

So, what is the motivation for me to share it here? I am disappointed with some who 'demand' me to analyse some of THEIR stocks, demand updating some certain sector news, blah blah ... READ ME. This is a 'free' personal blog. Nothing to do with YOUR stocks la. Wrong channel, wrong place ... move on, ok?

But, I will still share my knowledge here, especially to those novices ...HOPING that could help them to LEARN and UNDERSTAND markets a little better. I was novice then, hoping someone could write about LEARNING CORNER ... and I feel so appreciative with such good humans, good souls which help me along the way in my learning. I do know how novices/newbies feel ... but do readers care how we bloggers feel, especially an Ah Pek like me ...

Please stop asking around what to do with your Salcon, Naim, Jaks, Scomi, Saag, LionDiv, YTLLand, E&O, KNM, AirAsia, MAS, DVM, KBunai and such ... no one could help you. If u still dont see me as helpful and do not even appreciate my TIME writing here, answering some questions(it needs TIME and KNOWLEDGE, ok?) ... what else can I do? I repeat ... I do not have qualifications to answer you. I do not have financial, economics, accounting, business, investments or trading background to answer anyone. Please understand that I am NOT selfish, ok?

Pausing from blogging ... off for holiday.

Happy Holiday ... I will take a break from market and blogging too. I will be going to Temerlor to teach a person and might be going to Kuantan again(any readers from Kuantan to meet up with? haha) ... and to drive up to Trengganu ... that is the holiday plan so far. By the way, I love Malaysia so much that I will certainly prefer to travel in Malaysia and will wish to travel all around Malaysia. My dream of travelling around the nation with a bike is still there  ... my Malaysia is 54-years old now, still a very young country ... so, HAPPY MERDEKA too.

Proud Malaysian,

TEH

p/s : I am going east and south next week. Those sincere readers and wish to meet up(for yam-char) or ... willing to pay me to learn some simple trading-ideas, please contact me. I will drive to your town/city as I am travelling, anyway. Hehe.

Friday, August 26, 2011

Waterfalls Watch

Top Losers lunch --- close

1. KLK - 36 cents --- 12 cents
2. HLBank -32 cents --- 42 cents
3. HLG - 26 cents --- 46 cents
4. Armada - 24cents --- 27cents
5. RHBCap - 21 cents --- 22 cents
6. CIMB -21 cents --- 21 cents
7. PPB - 20cents --- 20 cents
8. TWS -18cents --- 26 cents
9. Genting - 18cents --- 32 cents
10. AirAsia - 18 cents --- 13 cents
11. IOICorp - 17cents --- 17cents
12. Parkson -14 cents --- 13 cents
13. KPJ -13 cents --- 7 cents
14. GenP -14 cents --- 4 cents
15. AFG - 13cents --- 16 cents
16. PChem -12 cents --- 27 cents
17. AMMB - 12 cents --- 8 cents
18. Axiata - minus 11cents --- positive 9 cents!!
19. Sunway -10cents --- 12cents
20. CyPark - 10cents --- 15 cents

dived after lunch

1. LMCement - 32 cents
2. APM - 22 cents
3. Carlsberg - 22 cents
4. Media - 16 cents
5. YTLCement - 15 cents
6. MISC - 15 cents
7. IJM - 14 cents
8. Esso - 12 cents
9. MudaJaya - 12 cents
10. Allianz - 11 cents
11. Notion - 11 cents
12. Supermax - 11 cents
13. PMetal - 11 cents
14. CIHolding - 11 cents
15. Latexx - 10 cents
16. MRCB - 10 cents
17. YTLLand - 9.5 cents
18. GenM - 9 cents
19. Kencana - 9 cents
20. Proton - 9 cents
21. Bursa 8 cents
22. Tenaga - 8 cents

Many of the companies above just reported very good or at least decnt earnings BUT they still dropping. This is the reality of a markets.

Now, the next level I will do is to place their RSI in the list above and from a glance, I will short-list about 10 to analyse. If I need to take half an hour for a counter, I do need 5 hours to go to my third level ... to read news related to the counters short-listed and will check on NA(news analysis). Once that is done, if I still have the Tenaga, I will start to plot on the plans for each counters!! Time consuming and dumb? Hmm ... I am so used to it, actually. Haha

I am tired ... night.

TEH

Dubai : Bubble burst









TEH

China's stories

China offers to buy Greek debt



China : I am still following CHINA's news now and then since 4 years ago. Perhaps I am a Chinese(I am not, I am a Malaysian) ... perhaps I am interested to see how China taking over as world econ-super power. I will also hope I will still be around to see how China over-taking US. Hope there will be no war between them. We read about currency war as China is being accused of supressing their yuan. The anti-dumping cases have created a tense situation between the two giants. One a debtor ... another a creditor. Will China continues to buy US's debt? We shall see ...

Property bubble in China



China's Ghost Cities and Malls



I do not watch TV, do not read much about newspaper as I spent many hours listening to these VERY interesting 'news' to my interest!!


TEH

Selldown : Bear in KLSE

DOW down 170 points with gold and silver recovering after two days sell-off. Gold at 1770 level with silver at 41. GLD went down to 166 before closed higher at 172 and SLV at 40 level now.

Axiata : Yes, Remnant ... technically Axiata might rebound at RM4.60 now. Will it rebound to RM5, that no one could tell at the moment. If the foreigners valued her at RM5.03, they will not want to see their investments is losing values. So, I do think so Axiata will stablise at RM5 level too. If I look into a longer time frame, I hope I will collect more of her at RM4.40 level. Will see how ...

Affin : Broken RM3 level and closed at 2.96 now. Banking and financial stocks are infected by some diseases at the moment. But, I am surprised that AMMB holding above its strong support at RM6 very well.

MEGB : AT its low-support of 1.60 again. I read that she gives good dividends and it is recommended as a defensive stock.

9.50 am : Hmm .. KLCI down more than 10 points and CIMB and Axiata continue their dives ... CIMB went below RM7 while Axiata went to touch 4.43.

GenM : Broken 3.40, touched 3.32 ... a level I hv not seen for months now. BEARISH.

YTLLand : When is the last time you see her as a penny-stock? Hmm ... today it is going below RM1. How do you advise a person on this one if he bought at 1.75, and he asked you when it was at 1.20 level? SELL and cut-loss? I did not answer the e-mail but writing it here, YTLLand ... still like her but MRT-related news fizzle-out ...

Gold at 1760 and Silver above 40 now.

11.10 am : What is going on? No QE3 now? Hmm ... KLSE continue to sell-down as we are at 1445 level. Many are selling ahead of long break with Raya and Merdeka next week.

Axiata : Holding at 4.50 now, will check on her at 4.40 or low now.

RHBCap going to RM8 soon, GenM to 3.30 and Gamuda at RM3. Tenaga touched 5.22 ...

The selldown is overdone but not over yet. Well, many going into cheaper prices now to collect.

CIMB Group Holdings Bhd, Malaysia’s second-biggest banking group, fell for a third day in Kuala Lumpur trading to its lowest in more than a year on concern a slowing economy will hurt earnings.

The stock dropped 3.5 percent to RM7 at 10:25 a.m. local time, set for its lowest close since July 7, 2010.

RHB Capital Bhd. and other lenders dropped.

“Investors are lightening up on cyclical stocks and banks are the target,” said Lye Thim Loong, who helps manage about US$770 million at Avenue Invest Bhd.

CIMB’s “high” foreign ownership also helped contribute to the stock’s sell-off, he said. -- Bloomberg

TEH : If you think CIMB have high foreign ownership, what is the RISK of AirAsia sell-off would be? If they want to exit, they have to exit. So, is foreign funds good for the stocks?

Call-warrants : I have exited all 3 weeks ago or so. The last one being a short-fling with MSM-ca(I think) which registered some losses too. So, many punters will be losing lots of money in buying call-warrants and if they are still holding to hope. CWs are used to PUNT, not even trade.

Warrants : Yes,after losses in HapSeng-wa and Sunway-wa in this few days, I m giving up warrants too. Ouch.

Hence, playing defensive means ... we hide under some good stocks while staying in cash positions.

Coastal-wa : Dropping 11% now ... it is game over for many warrants players?

QL-wa : At 0.68 now ... do you think it will go up to RM1 again? THINK again ...

PMetal-wc : Welcoming another new warrant into our market ...

KSL-wa : Welcoming her too ...

What needs to be pointed out is call-warrants are meant for very short punt(day trading, scalp, contra AND duirng bullish markets). Warrants are for trading good fundamental stocks(leverage play) which are in UP-trend and using some technical analysis indicators to enter or exit. Not to buy-n-hold.

Stocks ... if good stocks like Tenaga and such could be in sell-down situation, pulling the KLCI much lower now(check the peak at almost 1700) ... what do u think of smaller stocks, especially those goreng kau-kau stocks? Will they ever recover?

12.40 pm : I was very busy this morning, actually.

Top Losers

1. KLK - 36 cents(
2. HLBank -32 cents
3. HLG - 26 cents
4. Armada - 24cents(over-valued IPO)
5. RHBCap - 21 cents
6. CIMB -21 cents
7. PPB - 20cents
8. TWS -18cents
9. Genting - 18cents
10. AirAsia - 18 cents (more to come)
11. IOICorp - 17cents
12. Parkson -14 cents (luckily I ran off)
13. KPJ -13 cents (defensive? time to consider)
14. GenP -14 cents
15. AFG - 13cents
16. PChem -12 cents
17. AMMB - 12 cents(yes, dropping as expected)
18. Axiata - 11cents (expected too but too eager to grab her)
19. Sunway -10cents(still adjusting since re-listing)
20. CyPark - 10cents (I grabbed 1.80 before but I wont grab her now. Situation changed, so we need to adapt).

yes, we read that the foreign funds exiting in volumes over the board. Now, which counter having a huge foreign funds? That is the highest RISK, ok?

Foreign selling weighs on KLCI
Written by Joseph Chin of theedgemalaysia.com
Friday, 26 August 2011 15:29

KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia’s stock market continued to be battered by fund selling of bank stocks on Friday, Aug 26 but more worrying was the selling was extending to other fundamentally strong and smaller capitalised stocks also.

Analysts said the selling was from foreign funds on concerns about the economy slowing, worsened further by the US and European economies. As for the recent corporate results, they said the earnings were not that impressive also.

At 3.21pm, the FBM KLCI was down 22.22 points to 1,442.52. Turnover was 602.32 million shares valued at RM1.39 billion. Losers battered gainers 661 to 99.

It was HL Bank and HLFG’s turn to come under selling, down 42 sen each to RM12.36 and RM11.72. CIMB was the most active, falling 23 sen to RM7.02.

Other big capitalised stocks fell, with GENTING BHD [] down 33 sen to RM9.45 and KLK 24 sen to RM21.24 while Bumi Armada shed 26 sen to RM3.54 after its disappointing results.

Petronas Chemicals lost 22 sen to RM6.08, Airasia 16 sen to RM3.341 and MRCB nine sen to RM1.96

2.45 pm : I have to go for a function now. KLCI dropping 21 points!!

Determination : An ingredient to success
3.30 pm : Award ceremony ... went to see some of my bright students. We have more than half of the students getting 4As and above!! Imagine 'Further Maths" ... a difficult subject? Nah ... 58% of the students sat for the exams recently got A(with many A* too). It breaks all the records. I am impressed(and proud too)

Imagine a student .. doing biology stream, came to me at the beginning of the year(Jan) and said ... Sir, I want to take tuition Further Math from you. Could you find the time for me, please?".  I was like ... what the heck, she is taking 6 subjects!! You need only 3 subjects to enter a Uni, ok? Perhaps 4A* or so for a good top Uni in the world!! 6 subjects? Nuts? Well ... she got an A for further Maths learning 5 months under me. Gosh ... it is NOT me that is good(I know I am but not THAT brilliant-la) ... she is not that brilliant students too BUT she is VERY determined, very hard-working and yes ... very humble.She slogged ... and obtained 6A - to become our top students!! Fantastic ... I think it ts her determination that pull her apart from the 'normal' much brighter students than her. Congrats.

Ok .. back to KLSE. Nothing much as it is still bleeding. KLCI still 21 points down. HSI dropping 200 points.

What is holding well? HapSeng maintained at 1.30 level. Masteel staying about RM1. KimLun at 1.44. These are few stocks doing OK. Anything didnt drop more than 2% is considered OK ... haha.

Axiata : At 4.58 now. Incredible .. someone is supporting her. Hammer might be formed later, check after market closes then.. Axiata at 4.63 now!! Buy-buy-buy ... buying is coming back. Someone is buying!!

4pm : Axiata at 4.70, rebounds from 4.43 this morning, so should form a nice hammer today! Will check later.

UOADev : Might be forming a hammer too in her. Check later.

4.50 pm : KLCI down 20 points.
TEH

Thursday, August 25, 2011

Inflation Adjusted : Silver is undervalued



This is to convince myself to buy gold and silver.

Please do not buy SilverBird which traded in KLSE. That is not a silver company. Go supermarket, buy some cakes ... check the label to see if got SilverBird word there. Or else, go to Pingiran USJ here, nearing Shah Alam ... see if you could find a SilverBird factory. They do not produce Silver, ok? Just in case someone wondering SILVER is traded in KLSE?



TEH

The dropping of heavyweights

DOW is going to go up for third day now ... but not the same could be said about KLCI, which heavy-weights are weighing it down. So, I shall look at few of these heavy-weights : Axiata, CIMB, Tenaga,

Gold and Silver wiill continue to retrace as it has been overbought and the extreme only triggering profit-takings. Gold at 1710 level, dropping USD200 from its recent peak. Silver is below USD40 now. Watching how GLD and SLV will be traded later on.


Axiata : Huge selling volume seen(second most actively traded counters behind CIMB) ... though I grabbed at 4.60, it is not a good sign as it might drop to 4.40 level. So, I shall see if any technical rebound to exit. Buying should be tmr or few days later. I do like the SHARP drop today, actually. We shall see tmr ... RSI at 17.4

Earnings(taken from BT) : KUALA LUMPUR: Regional handphone operator Axiata Group Bhd posted a RM663.1 million second-quarter profit ended June 2011, 15 per cent more than the RM576.8 million a year ago.

TEH : So, Axiata profits higher ... and investors selling her. Anything missing here? The most recent issue of  The Edge talking about Axiata ... do read.




CIMB : The most actively traded counter in KLSE today. Congrats, you won the first place!! RSI at 15. WOW ... time to consider to buy her, ya. Hanging at strong support 7.25. See if it will dive further tmr and I will certainly support Najib ... yeah!! Najib Boleh, CIMB pun Boleh.

Earnings(taken from BM) : The Group’s 2Q11 revenues of RM2.96 billion were 7.6% higher than 1Q11, translatingto a 5.8% Q-o-Q net profit growth to RM970 million.

Taken from The Edge : Moody’s upgrades CIMB Bank’s bank financial strength rating


TEH : Yet another good profit recorded but stocks diving now. Upgraded somemore. Anything amiss here?



RHBCap : The BIGGEST KLCI loser today. No one interested with her now. Anyone chased her up above RM10? Perhaps Maybank will be interested if she drops to RM7? Technically bearish ... looking at RM7.80 level to consider.


Tenaga : A real laggard as she registered new low!! RSI at 21, so I shall prefer CIMB. Wont look at her till RM5.10 level.

Taken from BT : Tenaga may not maintain dividend payouts

Yes, being cautious ... I will play-safe and go for these stocks. They do give dividends and if get stuck, we could be looong term investors! heehe.

10.40 pm : DOW turn red and at minus 120 points now. GLD down at 169(touched 166) but SLV flat(38-39).
TEH

p/s : Droppings ... haha ... heavyweights = elephants. Haha ... so the droppings of heavyweights? Haha.

Stock Talk : UOADev


IPO around RM2.60, today at RM1.50 ... losing more than 40% here if one is to subscribe and hold till today. It is clearly this is a huge downtrending waterfall and it is not over just yet. The slowdown in propety market is expected in 2H11 and many broker houses will come out to downgrade the sector and this particular stock. The last time I read was the target-price still above RM2 plus.

TEH

Correction in Gold

DOW up 144 points as gold and silver dived. So, guess we are seeing QE3 to push the stocks higher from here ... time to buy back our stocks again? GLD down 3.4% and SLV lost 4.4%. Time to exit SLV-c1 with a loss today due to my bet that market will go down and silver to go up. When should I buy back GLD or SLV?



By
It was an ugly day for precious metals (NYSE:DBP). On Tuesday, gold (NYSE:GLD) and silver (NYSE:SLV) both fell as the Dow (NYSE:DIA) gained the most points in two weeks. Gold dropped the most in a year after reaching a new nominal high of $1917.90 per ounce. Silver also declined and reached a session low of $41.50 before rebounding back above $42. Since gold and silver often play off each other, let’s take a closer look at gold as it provides a clear reason for the pullback.

As silver bugs will recall, back in April and May, silver margins were hiked 5 times in less than two weeks. The margin hikes sent silver tumbling from $50 an ounce. Since then, silver has struggled to sustain a move above $40. The strong precious metals rally last week powered silver to a new short-term high of $44.28 on August 22. On the same day, gold reached a high of $1917.90. However, gold and silver both saw sharp selloffs yesterday. As the chart below shows, gold has seen this type of move before.

The prior sharp selloff was seen on August 11. This is significant because the CME increased gold margins by 22%, effective after the close of business on August 11. The same beat down method seen in silver months earlier, was seen in gold. However, gold recovered quite well until yesterday’s sharp selloff. So what caused this familiar selloff in gold and silver? Another margin hike! Late Tuesday, it was announced that The Shanghai Gold Exchange increased gold margins for forward contracts, the second time this month. Li Ning, an analyst at Shanghai CIFO Futures said, “Gold prices on the global market have been rallying strongly and at an increasingly faster pace. The margin hike is a pre-emptive move in case prices crashed and caused great volatility in the market. The Shanghai Futures Exchange could raise margins on its gold futures contract soon too.”

For our premium newsletter subscribers, I warned about this exact situation on Monday. I said, “Gold will meet resistance near $1900-$1950. As gold approaches the higher end of this range, be cautious of another margin hike in gold.” Many investors may be wondering where gold goes from here? The prior CME margin hike sent gold down 5%. If you apply the same 5% pullback to the recent high of $1917 in gold, you get a gold price of about $1821. Yesterday, gold for December delivery reached a low of $1826. Yesterday’s low also coincides with our warning to premium newsletter subscribers. On Monday, I also said, “Margin hikes worked extremely well a few months ago to dampen silver bugs, but investors should see this as another buying opportunity. Gold will find short-term support at $1825, and even more support at $1800.”

Investors looking to hold precious metals in their portfolio may want to consider gold plays such as AngloGold (NYSE:AU), Newmont Mining (NYSE:NEM), or Market Vectors Jr Gold Miners ETF (NYSE:GDXJ). Silver plays include First Majestic Silver (NYSE:AG),Endeavour Silver (AMEX:EXK), and Global X Silver Miners ETF (NYSE:SIL).




Flash Gold posts biggest drop since 1980 on Fed fears
Written by Reuters
Thursday, 25 August 2011 07:05


NEW YORK: Gold futures fell more than $100 on Wednesday, Aug 24 one of the steepest falls ever, as strong U.S. economic data and expectations of more Federal Reserve stimulus accelerated profit taking from the safe-haven record high of a day ago.

Selling spiraled out of control as money managers competed to liquidate positions in COMEX futures, which experienced their biggest single-day dollar loss since 1980. Volume looked like a record.

The price of gold bullion is now more than $150 below Tuesday's all time high of $1,911.46 an ounce, downed by intense speculation about whether the Fed will announce new plans to ease monetary policy at a meeting late this week.

Analysts said it was time for gold investors to take money off the table after the rally extended too far, too fast in recent weeks. Bullion rose as much as $400 since July.

"You have a commodity that retail investors, hedge funds and everybody were long, and the technical indicators showed it was overbought. It was just a matter of time before the market starts cracking," said Mihir Dange, COMEX gold options floor trader for Arbitrage LLC.

Spot gold was down 4.1 percent to $1,754.59 an ounce by 3:37 p.m. EDT, off its session low of $1,749.39.

Before gold began recoiling Tuesday from above $1,900, it had risen nearly 9 percent over six sessions.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled down $104 at $1,757.30 an ounce. Reuters data showed that is the biggest price drop of the continuous, front-month contract since January 22, 1980, when it tumbled almost $150. On a percentage basis, it was the steepest fall since December 2008, during the financial crisis.

COMEX futures volume topped 430,000 lots, on pace to surpass a record from August 9, preliminary Reuters data showed.

Silver dropped 5.9 percent to $39.34 an ounce.

Gold came under pressure after steadying overnight, after a report showing new orders for U.S. durable goods orders rose 4 percent in July, more than expected and offering hope the ailing economy could dodge a second recession.

Analysts warned of a sharp correction from this month's rally was possible, especially if Friday's central bank meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming does not result in a Fed announcement of a third round of government bond buying, or quantitative easing, also known as QE3.

"The correction really should be taking place now, because of all the (bets) on the table," said Ashok Shah, chief investment officer at London & Capital.

"But the journey is not complete until Jackson Hole is done," Shah said. The Fed conference starts on Thursday.

CALL-PUT SPREAD NARROWS, MARGINS EYED

On the options front, the spread between the 25-day implied volatility of COMEX gold and that of put options has narrowed since Monday, a sign that gold option investors were turning bearish.

The CBOE gold volatility index .GVX is near at its highest since April 2009.

The CME Group (CME.O) said late Wednesday it would raise maintenance margins for trading COMEX 100-ounce gold futures by 27 percent, after the close of business on Aug 25. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and Hong Kong Mercantile Exchange had raised margins on some of gold contracts this month.

Holdings of the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell by nearly 25 tonnes on Tuesday, their biggest one-day outflow since January 25.

Spot platinum dropped 2.8 percent to $1,805.49 an ounce, and palladium was down 1.5 percent at $745.28 an ounce. - Reuters

Supermax : I will be interested on her again .... but it is sharply diving at the moment.

9.10 am : KLCI up slightly.

SLV-c1 : At 0.63, will see if I want to add some positions later.

Sunway-wa : Welcome back ... grabbed at 0.60 level as many profit-taking will be seen today. Done.

CIMB : Going below 7.40 now ... why? She is dragging KLCI down. DOW up two days, KLCI down two days? Any correlation?

Sunway-wa : Ouch ... 0.58 and 0.60 done so far. 0.56 not done.

Genting : Well, moving up above 9.60 again ... up, down, up ... without a certain direction. Could technical-analysis being used here?

Sunway-wa : Coming back down, 0.56 done.

11.40 pm : Nothing much around, just watching my Sunway-wa taking making some losses.

KLCI is in red zone - CIMB and Axiata pulling the index down. Tenaga going below 5.40 now.

Sunway-wa : At 0.55 now. ouch.

12.50 pm : GOLD at 1740 level now, still retracing, as DOW expected to move higher, everyone is talking about QE3 now. Yeah for stocks ... down for gold.

2.55 pm : Axiata done at RM4.60 moments ago.

3.45 pm : Wow ... Axiata done at 4.58 too. 4.56 not done, otherwise I will be collecting too much of her. This morning I e-mailed a new turtle of mine that I am looking at her at 4.62 strong support level. So, as it dives, I queued for her lower. Done? Axiata is cheap? Hmm ... the last time I spoke about her with my ex-colleague in Sabah, it was at RM3 and I told her I prefer Axiata rather than TM.

But, today is nice ... TM and Axiata is actively traded with TM up, Axiata down.

Tenaga : AT 5.30 now. Hmm ... collect at RM5.10 level?

CIMB : Going below 7.30 now. PT, who bought at RM8 some time go decided to buy-n-hold. I dont know about it. It shot up to RM9 ... and still holding. Recently, he joined my cohort-1 and CIMB already at RM8 again. We had teh-tarik and I told him about the RISK of CIMB. He told me days ago he cut CIMB for small loss around 7.90 level. Luckily I got it right and CIMB at 7.30 now ... hmm ... cheaper now, right?

5.05 pm : Losses in Sunway-wa and SLV-c1 today. Ouch ... a lesson which gamblers seldom learn.

Supermax : At 2.82, still watching to grab her bcak. Now, I just read a broker report, valuing her at 25% discount to TopGloves's PE. This is another rough estimate for the so-called target price. And Hartalega is preferred. So, we have Kossan and Harta as the better bet than Supermax and TopGlove in this sector. What about the abandoned Adventa and Latexx? Abandoned as ... if you read about the news of investors buying them but fall-out?





TEH

Peter Schiff



I read his book ... he can really talk and write. So, I will listen.

TEH

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

Stock Talk : AirAsia and Mas

Question : Hi, can anyone advise me on the next course of action for MAS? Sell or hold? It seems some of the research houses have putting SELL call for MAS today after its poor quarterly results.

One of the answers : I am buying MAS; managed to get in at almost the lowest price of the day.

Reasons:

1. Much cheaper than Airasia
2. 52weeks High is RM2.40, means more room to grow
3. Awaiting better business plan or restructuring plan to be announced

Taken from RHBInvest's forum.



MAS : As far as technical is concern, MAS is a sell at 1.85 level. I wont give more details as I am using her as a homework for my turtles!! Haha. Yes, see how they(novices) analyse the MAS chart technically. Will it be similar to my point of views?

To answer the question - first of all, we dont know at what price she has bought MAS and dont even know why she bought MAS in the first place? When she bought MAS? No information, how to advise? IMPOSSIBLE to get good answers as she is NOT specific. I am pointing it out as I received many such questions ... running here and there asking for answers which is NOT possble to answer. The possibilities are too many and even you want to help, you cant.

Technically, due to AirAsia link, someone USED that news to push her up. Many retailers chasing her(sound familiar?). Of coz these SHARKS knew many will rush in like hell before they distribute and take profits. Next ... the quarter report is bad? Why many bought in in the first place? Oh ... you mean you dont know MAS is a losing money parasite-glc-company? Investing in MAS? Are you sure you are investing or speculating? Since when MAS give good dividends? Hmm ... the word 'invest' is being loosely used here.

Research houses : Hmm ... sound familiar again? They need to down-grade a stock that losing money, right? When they want to upgrade her, dont worry ... we will have TONY's factor, oil goes down blah blah ... if one if to READ research reports to BUY or SELL ... we are taking a high risk here. Look, these broker houses WANT you to buy or sell so that some trades being done and they earn from the fees charged!! Dont be naive, ok?

SELL call? Hmm ... should we listen? At present bearish sentiments, good counters are being sold-off ... since when MAS is a good fundamental stock? MAS is a good TRADING stock. Getting the word INVEST and TRADE correctly is important as we might easily confused.

I have nothing against the person placing his answer as he has his own views. I do NOT have personal attacks on anyone, just their views.

Learning Corner

1. How do we see MAS is cheaper than AirAsia? Now if you take the price of the stocks, then your view is VERY FLAWED. I believe one should be saying about their valuations - PE, PB, NAV, NTA and such. Fundamental wise, yes. AirAsia reported PROFITS tho declined. MAS reported LOSSES. Oopsss ... which one is cheaper again?

2. 52-week high SHOULD not(or never) be used as a reason to buy as stock prices DO NOT go down by itself. Look ... MAS may not be ever to see RM2.40 anymore ... unless you are a loooong term investor, that I cant say. AirAsia is attaching a growth story to her and many foreign funds are into her. The RISK of AirAsia is VERY high now, but still a very good stock to trade. INVEST? Err ... AirAsia was from RM1, ok? So, please NEVER use 52-week as your yardstick. If a person mention such, I know he is a novice/newbies. The stock prcie will not go to high or new high simply because it was there before!! We have the memory, the stock does not. It is BUSINESS, man. I simply prefer fundamental analysis, actually. Haha.

3. No comment on the third one as I do not have insider news or read much about the current re-structuring. It takes time ... and lots of effort. We shall see how Tony will use his midas-touch. MAS is still a GLC ... still a parasite with many 'crooks' inside there. Unless they privitise her?

Another comment :As W. Buffett suggested, we should avoid totally airline stocks. The money that an airline company earned isn't enough for buying airplanes. Airlines are usually high-debt companies, they have to continuously borrow money to purchase aircrafts to keep with the pace. Airasia may feel proud it could book 200 airplanes in a single order, but how much debt it has to burden? Air industry is vulnerable to oil prices, widespread illness s.a.SARS,H1N1, not to mention the fierce competition nowadays, even the best airline like SIA, it has dropped from $15 to $10 this year. It's so risky to own airline stocks.

Well, this is a much better answer!! This is INVESTOR's point of view. AirAsia is a high gearing counter, if u know what it is. So, it is tradable as MANY like her. We need the crowds to create volume to trade, ok? Growth stories in AirAsia needs to continue to be played ... once the music is over, it is finding emergency-exit door. I will like to watch ... for learning purposes, of coz. Please do tell me you are INVESTING in MAS again, ok?
TEH

Gold : More upside to come?



With some speculation on Gov stimulus in play, it pushed DOW up 300+ points last night. QE3 or more will means down-down for USD, and gold will benefit more from here. Do you get it?







Gold was at 1000 level then.

11.10 pm : GOLD coming down from 1910 high level to below 1800 now. Profit-taking in huge selling. It went to 1765, actually.


TEH

High risk, high gain?

DOW up 300 points ... if one is to buy, check if the rebound might be short-live again. So, time to add some stocks again while remembering that we are still in the grip of bear.

Being more defensive, I went for Parkson. Hmm ... Supermax do look attractive but I think I shall prefer Genting or O&G counters.

GLD and SLV retraced as stock rally. Hence, we wait for more weakness in gold/silver to collect more of them. GLD at 177.7 and SLV 40.6, dropping the most in a day.

Quote : Bad news in a good stock is a good news.

Example : TENAGA

KUALA LUMPUR: CIMB Equities Research has a Technical Sell on TENAGA NASIONAL BHD at RM5.43 at which it is trading at a FY12 price-to-earnings of 14.3 times and price-to-book value of 1.4 times.

The research house said on Wednesday, Aug 24 Tenaga broke below its medium term support trend line few days ago.

“This could entice greater selling pressure in days to come. If we are right, the next downleg would drag prices towards RM5.20 and RM5.00 next,” it said.

CIMB Research said the technical landscape continues to deteriorate. MACD is hovering in the deep negative territory while RSI is also below the 30pts mark.

“As long as prices stay below the RM5.80 support-turned-resistance trend line, the bears will continue to dominate. Hence, selling into strength looks like a good option here. Near term gains are likely capped at RM5.52-RM5.68,” it said.

8.20 am : Gold at 1840 level, dropped from a high of 1910 to 1820 this morning.

Expect KLCI to rally today ... yeah ... buy buy buy ...

Buying signals

Short-term signals : When a stock tanking, all the indicators will show negative-situation. A short-term trader should have exited when it breaks a support or cut-loss point. Then, when it rebounds ... like yesterday after lunch(gold down, DOW future up, HSI up ... ) when some funds having fun with KLCI, pushed it up by 10 points ... many of the stocks rebounded and shown some initial positive signals(such as hammer formed in Genting). Being a short-term trader, one may want to take a higher risk of buying before market closes as DOW is pointing to rebound(one of the excuses I sold my paper-silver after holding for just 2 weeks).

For a more conservative technical traders, they might want to wait for more positive signals and lagging behind current situation. IT IS OK to lag as overall, the technical landscape of MANY stocks is NOT good. Hence, the early buy signals could easily be false-signals and nullified.

Volumes ... another very important indicators for traders should be taken into considerations. Increase or decrease in volumes showing us the current sentiments. Bear in mind that KLCI is NOT a liquid market and many stocks are NOT liquid enough for us to be confidently use volume-price analysis. But ... err ... better than nothing. Still the most important criteria to me.

With good volumes and a positive candle-sticks, one could get into some stocks yesterday before closing and could profit more but the risk is higher. The quote "high risk, high gain" could be applies here BUT I do not agree with that vague statement, anyway. That deserve another loooong post of such bad statements many traders used.

Making decision is hard ... seriously. One day market down, the next day it is up ... next week down again, another week up. Arrghh ... that is called volatility, which a short-term trader needed. We cant trade something not moving, can we?

With high volatile markets, it is the BEST not to trade or in markets for novices/newbies. Serious ... we dont know when to enter, and if signals fail ... we get stucked and dont know how to exit as we do not have a plan to exit!! We do not even know why we are buying a stock in the first place!! That is high risk, low gain(or losses!!).

High risk ... better know your exit-points

I have only one female turtle at the moment. Yes, 7 + 2 + 1(me) males ... 10 of us males with a rose there in a closed room!! Haha ... so, I took that as an example ... she came in to my class, she is taking a VERY HIGH risk. First of all, I am a stranger to her ... all the guys there are strangers to her ... so, I asked her " DO you know that you are taking a very high risk here". "Not only you are learning from a person without qualilfication(LOL) but coming here at night, in a room with 10 males!! GOSH!! " ... She just smiled and said "Yes, I know" haha ... we laughed. I like the second class better as we are more relax(tho many in losing money positions, I think) and could joke. I am a joker, u see. haha ... Then, I questioned her "Do you know how to EXIT from here?". That is what I mean by exiting-plans. We went in with a high risk trade, we certainly need to know how to exit!! Betul tak, murid-murid? Hehe ... betuuullll.

HapSeng-wa : No opinion on her but I will be playing ding-dong with her, hoping to gain some money for mooncake. Haha. That is called GAMBLING - risking money for profit, without research for short-term gain. Queuing at 0.435, 0.430, 0.425 and 0.420.

Slv-c1 : At 0.665 today by market-marker. I will check on silver chart and trades to consider her again. Nope, it is not a buy unless silver showing technical recovery. This is NOT even for novice punters. It is pure gambling.

AirAsia : Continue its dive ... the QPR factors here. If QPR wins, AirAsia up? Haha.

AirAsia Bhd, Asia’s biggest listed discount carrier, fell in Kuala Lumpur trading after reporting a 48 per cent drop in second-quarter profit on higher fuel costs.

The stock dropped 1.4 per cent to RM3.57 at 9:04 a.m. local time, set for its lowest close since Aug 12.

Supermax : Ok ... see how far it could rebound. Grabbed some(3.02-3.04 done) ... is it still a defensive counter? Sure?

Parkson : At 6.65, selling now will gain me a dinner. So? Buy yesterday, sell today? That will benefit our brokers as we need to pay fees!

HapSeng-wa : Done at 0.43-0.435 so far. Coming lower ... hang-on.

KLCI was 3 points up, now is flat and might going into red as short-term punters taking small-profits(for raya or moon-cake festival or even for merdeka holiday). Weaknesses seen across the board. So, if one rushing in to buy in early morning market-opening, will you run for your life now?

SLV-c1 : Grabbed back at 0.67 as I am releasing HapSeng-wa. Have to eat maggi-mee tonight. Hehe.

Parkson : At 5.68, clearing some at 5.70+. Will check later.

Genting : Well, was up nicely just now but ie red again. Short-term signals tend to fail.

Supermax : It is a trap ... arrghh ... at 2.97 now. Check if it could rebound, otherwise cut-cut-cut. There goes my dinner .. grabbing more at 2.97 done!!

10.10 am : HSI down almost 200 points now.

Parkson : Sold half at 5.70 done. Hmm ... going to 5.80 now?

HapSeng-wa : Done more at 0.420-0.425 ... so, I am stucked.

Cut-loss : I hv cut off Chaoda last week for some losses. Now, if I do not, I am about 20-30% down with her. Phew!! At times, cut-loss ... then it move lower, we feel relieve. But after we cut loss, it reverses ... then, we might think of grabbing back!! It is OK, you know. If we cut-loss and it rebounds strongly the next day or the next moment(at times, I cut in the morning, in the afternoon it shoots up strongly. haha ... that was when I was a raw-novice 1-2 years ago). These things happen ... and we will THINK market is going AGAINST us, yes ... just us. No one else could be so-so-so bad luck!! Hmm ... LUCK, right? Wear your lucky shirt, then.

3.10 pm : Terrible cut in HS-wa and Supermax as the trades went wrong. Terrible .. no luck.

HSI down 230 points now and silver below 42, gold below 1850.

Genting : Need to close above 9.70 for it to be technically triggering a short-term buy signal but at 9.67 now.

HSI down by 300 points. ALERT. Bearish ... so run run run ...

HapSeng-wa : Now, as I have bought at high, and sold her off when she reached my 0.41 cut-loss level, it is at 0.395 now. Should I grab her back? Nope ... cut, run ... hide. Hehe

HSI down 370 points. ALERT. KLCI down 7 points at the moment. So, whatever technical signals to buy yesterday(too short of term) will be nullified and time to trim again.

Cleared off Parkson to take the profits and run ... while Supermax not flying, so bye-bye.

4.35 pm : Yes, technically it is a buy ... early signals tend to FAIL when market sentiments changed into BAD. Genting is a good example again ... a hammer needs confirmation even tho the signals are early that it might reverse. Many might want to bottom fishing ... but the pressure from the markets is greater!!

So, today is another bad day for many traders ... and investors in jittery mode. QE3 is nearing ... we should be in FEAR ... what should we do? DO NOTHING. No buying if you are novices. No buying if you could not cut-loss as today down, tmr down, then up up and down again.

The only thing will do well is gold and silver at the moment. Correction seen yesterday, perhaps a few day will be good to collect more.

10.10 pm : DOW up 100 points. Bullish as Gold and Silver correct for the second day. Wait for few days correction to collect.

11.20 pm : Oh boy ... SLV down 3%, so my punt into SLV-c1 will register a red and have to cover the losses. ouch.



TEH

Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Term of the Day : Gamble

Term of the Day :gamble

To engage in any activity in which money is put at risk for the purpose of making a profit, and which is characterized by some or most of the following (in approximately descending order of importance): little or no research has been conducted; the odds are unfavorable; the behavior is risk-seeking; an unsystematic approach is being taken; emotions such as greed and fear play a role; the activity is a discrete event or series of discrete events not done as part of a long-term plan; the activity is significantly motivated by entertainment or compulsion; ownership of something tangible is not involved; no net economic effect results.

taken from : http://www.investorword.com/


Parkson : Rangebound from 5.30 to 6.00. Technically it is a buy today at RM5.55, triple-5 effects. We shall check if I could gain 5% from this trade, ok? RM6? Doubt it could fly to RM6 with dark clouds ... it is still raining, the storm is over ...


Genting : No buying signal yet ... a white hammer formed but other than that, wait.

DOW up 120 points. GLD and SLV retracing a little.
TEH

Stock Talk : Supermax





Supermax : It is back in my focus as it is breaking RM3 today. The last time I wrote about her was my old-childhood friend, KC, bought her at RM5 because it was 'cheap'. Her friend working with Supermax said that it is a good buy at RM5 then. Mind you, market was still bullish but glove-stocks continue their down trend. So, she bought at RM5.00, it dived and moving lower each day ...

I asked her to WAIT and to BUY more(instead of Khee San - I never look into KheeSan until that day!!) of Supermax. At RM4, I asked her to average down. I knew I took a very HIGH risk advising her because she is just another aunties in market who knew NOTHING about stock-markets and such. So... luckily Supermax rebounded and I asked her to sell RM4.80. She has average at RM4.50. And LUCKILY after Rm4.80, it reversed!! Arrghh ... I always remember this trade!! I was so nervous!

Today, Supermax at RM3 now. Recently I read that OSK's asking us to be defensive and Supermax is being mentioned. Arrghh ... Supermax is still a good company but the 'trend' is no longer there, see? This is market ... follow the trend ... low could go lower, cheap could go cheaper. Collect her when NO ONE wants her ... as one fine day, glove-stocks will recover and Suermax will be superman again ... wish I could fly.

Supermax Corporation – Losing its grip in the 2Q. Supermax’s 1H11 net profit was below expectations, making up 30% of our full-year forecast and 29% of consensus estimates. The poor results were due to higher input costs and overcapacity. As expected, no dividends were declared. We now slash our FY11-13 EPS numbers by 13-26% as we were overoptimistic about Supermax’s ability to pass on costs and maintain margins. Supermax has put its Glove City project on hold, which we believe curbs its growth prospects. As a result, we raise our discount to Top Glove’s 13.1x benchmark P/E from 20% to 25%. Our target price falls from RM4.75 to RM3.64, prompting a downgrade of Supermax from Buy to HOLD. While valuations are cheap and input costs have moderated, this is offset by a lack of catalysts and lower growth prospects. We recommend Kossan for its balanced product mix.

Source : Taken from CIMB

Note : This is post no 1700.
TEH
DOW up 37 points. GLD at 184.6 and SLV at 42.6. So, my SLV-c1 should move higher and need to start tto think of selling, buy back during correction. Gold and Silver is overbought. Gold reching new high each day but Silver is still lagging behind. Gold touched 1911 level. Incredible!!

As I will be busy marking papers(exam month), I will only watch to punt in anything good that dive much lower than the current support(s).

YTLLand : I have mentioned about her last week when someoone asked me. It has broken its 1.15 support level and huge selling seen at 1.10. Game over .... we will be seeing 90cents again as the base.

Waterfalls : In such situations, we DO NOT buy downtrending stocks. We will be drown. Cutting losses as we caught the knives. Ouch.

When do I like waterfalls? When it is a bullish of sentiments, yet a good stock is diving down. That is what I meant by waterfall-catching. So, many might mis-understood the logic. I have asked my cohort-1 to do one simple homework two weeks ago as I was sharing about 200MA. With most(if not all) of 30-index linked stocks below 200MA, what does that mean? It means we are in huge down-trend now. It means ... stay aside and no buying!! Some have bought into some stocks during the dive, but as the technical rebound was over earlier than expected, we need to SELL at the first sight of reversal or sign of weakness. If one could not guess when the reversal will be around the corner, just no-buying and stay safe.

Dont worry ... market will still be there. We could only hope for more bad-news to push more of our good fav stocks to lower levels. At the moment, no one could see the bottom, yet. Yes, it is oversold. we might see some technical rebounds here and there .. but the pressure and odds will be against us.

Brace yourself for the whole week or two.

KLCI in slight green. GenM, Gamuda, Tenaga and CIMB continue to be going lower.

Sunway-wa : Welcoming another good warrant to trade. HapSeng-wa is being abandoned now ...

Trading Idea : Let me take Gamuda as an example ... when market dived that day, Gamuda 'dived'(pushed down, actually) to RM3. That is a strong BUY. Then, a strong 10%+ rebound in such a short few days is a SELL as you could see the volume-price reactions. Today, Gamuda going below RM3.15, I wont even touch Gamuda at RM3 now?! Know why?

Goreng-stocks : Still goreng-goreng stocks? I wanted to write about this 'topic', my point of views but it is not appropriate at this point of time as many might be saying that I am rubbing salts to their wounds. Sorry, I do not like seeing anyone in such pain(of losing money). I wish I could help ... I am a teacher-in-heart. But, no matter how many times we warn or remind anyone not to go into such goreng-stocks, they might even think we are ENVY of their huge profits!! Hmm ... DVM, KARAMbunai, KNM, CyBert ... ouch ouch ... moving lower today as distributions by SHARKS has been going on for past weeks.

MuiInd was goreng-up yesterday. One might get caught chasing her ... this is a klse-casino. Buying or selling is like going to Genting-casino. Let us bet MuiInd will be goreng-up to 30cents again. Hmm ... sound familiar? If you need to listen to these, one may go to public-forums. Many jokers there screaming their lungs out ... BUY BUY BUY ... then BYE BYE BYE.

10.15 am : So, KLCI in red ... down 2.35 points now from a positive opening. DOW up slightly... GOLD to the new high. Does that make any sense to you the DIRECTION of the current markets? Do you understand markets at all? At least do this simple homework I hv given my turtles ... check the 30-linked 200MA line. If you find more than 90% below 200MA, it is firmly DOWNTRENDING and will only go lower. There might be short rebound for those short-term punters to trade ... other than that, novices(like me) are advised to stay away.

Learning : It is the process, not the destination
Having said that, I am worry for my turtles ... especially my first batch. They came in end of last year where I told them KLCI will reach new high(and yes, it did) and profits was 'easy'. Today, should I e-mail them to warn them? How? Even long-term investors will like to pull their money out since they bought in Mac 2009. The profits are good and time to trim and take profits. How about those NEW to markets, with less than a year? And they dont even know what is hitting them?

Market will be searching for valuations and those over-priced stocks will move lower. VALUATIONS means FA. As for TA, stocks diving, supports broken and bad landscapes. Traders would have cut-loss or take profits weeks ago, ok?

Well ... I want to stay out of people's money. They have to make their own investments or tradings decisions. What if you ask them to sell, it shoot up higher? What if you ask them to buy and it moves lower? So difficult to call ... I could only write it HERE, in my own personal blog. Most of my cohort-0 turtles no longer read or even read my blog. LOL. They are youngsters below 30, with boyfriend-girlfriend and new gadgets, entertainment to chase. Reading about these investments stuff could be very boring and challenging to newbies, ok?

You could only place some criteria to them ... asking them to do some homework(most wont do la) ... how to track indices, sectors and stocks. You could only show them some useful websites to check on the health or markets etc etc ... do you thinik they will do those MINIMAL things you taught them? Lets use 80-20 ratio ... only 20% of them will do such.

Only 20% of those in market, KLSE, know what they are buying. ONly 20% of them know what FA is, what TA is. Only 20% of them ... do not lose money as they know how to protect their capitals. Only 20% ... pause.

Yes, I wont be the person who said THEY DESERVE IT or THEY ARE STUPID ... They are not. They do not deserve it. No one derserve to lose lots of their money, being ignorant  .. being naive and newbies. I will always remember that I WAS one of them just merely 4 years ago. I know NOTHING. People need to be given a chance to learn. Of coz we do have MANY egoistic traders who are STILL losing money(and with such sentiments, losing money is a norm) who will live in self-denial.

I will recommend many newbies to attend courses(please go for lectures, do some work and practise). If one needs tuition, then only come to me. I am a tutor, not qualify to be anyone's lecturer. Learning to trade is NOT as easy as many of them told you, if you heard from those forums(haha ... I want to laugh), you will know how naive many are.

Time to use your brain to THINK again. Are you sure you want to stay in KLSE for long? Or perhaps you might be the person telling others that market is a SCAM without admitting it is YOUR ignorance, YOUR arrogance, YOUR decisions that making you to lose money? Why looking for scape-goat to blame for YOUR own weaknesses?

Ok, enough said ... I could only say 'sorry' to those losing money.

Quote : You could only help those who want to help themselves.

3.10 pm : I have to run again ... KLCI up 4 points now. HSI up 200+ points. WOW.

SLV-c1 : Cleared off today as correction will be here. Stocks up, gold will go down. When Gold go down, time to buy.

5.50 pm : WOW ... KLCI up 10 points, HSI up 388 points and DOW future up 150 points. BULLish sentiments are back ... in such a short time frame?

Parkson : Yes, assuming that I bought Parkson at 5.55 level, ok? Let us analyse and check what willl happen to her.


TEH

Monday, August 22, 2011

Stock Watch : GenM and Gamuda

GenM : Closed at 3.45. One of my cohort-0 turtle, WY, bought at 3.30 level and I have asked her to sell at 3.60+ level but she told me she will like to see RM4.20 level to think of selling. She has been holding for 8 months plus now. I am not sure how much dividends GenM has declared. Now, at 3.45, I will be seeing RM3.20 again to decide if it worth collecting. YH bought at 3.20 and sold at 3.60. Then, bought back at 3.50 and sold at 3.80. I ama not sure if she bought back as I lost touch of what they(my 7 turtles of cohort-0) buy/sell. One have taken almost 10%+ profits twice, another buy-n-hold at 3.30 will be seeing her profits wipe-off if market sentiment didnt change soon.

Now, I no longer asking any of them to buy/sell. They need to LEARN ... if only they wanted too. BUSY BUSY is only excuses to me. Err ... I think I am busy too? Hmmm ...

GenM : Technically BEARISH. Below 200MA, MACD and RSI pointing downwards. Stochastics bearish crossover. Downtrending now and with that BLACK candle-stick, expect more down-side. Those bought in today, I dont understand WHY.



Gamuda :  Technically very bad landcape. The technical rebound failed and it is exiting. MACD and RSI formed lower-high, and will continue to go lower. Looking at a strong support at RM3 level and once break, MRT-news could not pump her up in such sentiments. Why is buying Gamuda today? Local funds supporting her?
TEH

Elliot Wave :2011 a crash, 2022 the bottom



I am not a fans of EW. According to the person, he recorded his clip in Nov 2010. He mentioned the new high will be around April but the down-leg will be in 2011, eventually.

Hmm ... let us see if he is right by end of 2011? So, many of readers here clicking on my BELOW 1400 poll, giving the picture of current sentiments. The same person who click on above 1600 level are bearish too. Well, when KLCI shoot back up to 1550, those currently bearish person will wish they have clicked above 1600 rather than current below 1400 veiw?

Your own view is important to the decision you will make. By following the crowd(herd), you are actually trying to be RIGHT but knowing what is TRUE is more important.

More of Elliot-Wave stating 2011 crashing in place.



http://www.elliottwave.com/

Are you the fans of EW?

TEH

Selldown : Bear in KLSE

9.55 am : Monday morning ... HSI up 200+ poiuts in early trade but KLCI is still down. At a point, it was down more than 10 points, recovering at negative 6 points now.

Gold at 1870 and Silver at 43.50 level.

SLV-c1 : At 0.745 now ... a reader, WC of Perak is the only person knew I bought her a week plus ago as he is the only person I sms-ed and he is a pure punter. Well, he did reward me with his profits(from MahSing-cb) but ... what if he lose some money?

Punters are expected to lose money. Since when a 4-D punters win money in long run? Unless ... yes, u r extremely lucky and hit the jackpot to be instant millionaire!! That is MILLIONS of 4-D punters hoping for. It is a DREAM ... hoping to make a huge break from the gains. Then, it becoming a HABIT and gambling-habit dies hard.

KBunai : I have someone 'confessed' to me that she bought at 0.21 level and she was at huge profit at a stage but continue to hold till recently she cut her off(didnt mention at what price) for huge losses. I was wondering ... why she didnt sell her off for profits when it LUCKY goreng-ed up? Why only recently when market diving that she cut her off? What if KBunai rebounds back to her 0.21 level or higher? But what if Kbunai continues to go lower(at 0.135 vs 0.140 now) and KARAM ... sink back below 10cents level? You mean the casino-eco-resort in Sabah no longer valid? They scrap it off? Or what? KARAM-bunai resort is located at Tuaran, a nice beach as I stayed there with my wife before and also my son do like the place there too. KARAM-bunai is giving many INVESTORS(sure? or speculators, u mean) the sinking(karam-ing) feelings.

Hence, I told my 'turtles'(will find a better term for those learning under me) not to punt into call-warrants. Say no to PN17 stocks, say no to highly speculative stocks(like DVM, KBunai, KNM and many more) and say NO to smoking ... ooopss ... I mean, say no to those stocks which didnt satisfy our conditions.

CIMB : At 7.80 now ... hmm ... buy? CIMB is with high risk attached to her(Najib's magic?) and as it has a good rally up to RM9 level, time will tel how market going to value her. Watching ...

IOICorp : At 4.45, under-perform. Valuation-wise, it starts to show good -bargain. I am still searching for excuses attaching to her for her downtrending and sharp sell-off recently.

Tenaga : Touched 5.40, breaking 5.50 level today. It rebounded to RM6, actually the other day before coming back down with more bad-news and downgrading on her. Watching Tenaga at RM5.10 level now. Watch ... not buy.

Genting : Went down below 9.70 this morning. You cant deny that she is still a fav stock to many traders/investors.

The above 4 stocks are heavy-weights in KLCI in different sectors. If they continue to go lower, they will pull KLCI lower with them.

11.55 am : KLCI down 12+ points. I am sideline as it did not dive 80-points lower. Nope, I do not expect that today, so no queues today. HSI was up in the morning 200+ points(due to sharp drop on Friday 600+ points) and in RED now, down 100+ points

Geely : At 2.15, still watching her. The last time I traded her was at 2.80, sold 3.30 level. Since then, I am still watching it is hitting NEW low ... and at 2.15, it is a new low registered today. PE at 10+ level, waiting for PE below 6. It is still not at HKD1, the level I started to stalk her ... it went all the way up from a 30cents stock to HKD5. Talking about huge profits? Wish I will be smarter next time around.

Panic-selling : It is needed for me to consider to buy again. We need 'perfect storm', like political chaos in US, more downgrading in US economies outlooks and such. Then, we shall see some panic-selling in KLSE ... say going below 1450 level.

2.05 pm : KLCI at 1470 level. HSI down 150 points, was down 200 points at a point. I am still watching HKSE, not KLSE.

Gold at 1880 and Silver at 43.70. Moving higher as fear factor is higher too.

Geely : At 2.08 new low as HSI down almost 300 points now.

WCT-wb : Going below 40cents ... interesting? Wait for 20cents?

Double-G : Gamuda and GenM losing 10cents at the moment. Hmm ... checking GenM at 3.30 level again.




3.00pm : HSI down 350 points, KLCI down 15 points.

GOLD at 1890 now but Silver at 43.63, touched almost 44 today.

Charts : One may go to http://www.kitco.com/  or http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ to check Gold and Silver Charts. These are two sites I am using.

4pm : HSI rebounds strongly(about 400 from the intra-day low) and might close in GREEN today.

KLCI still 12 points down but HSI up almost 100 points now. Yup, very volatile now.

KimLun : Down, below 1.50 level now. So? Cut-loss or buy more?

KLCI closing around minus 12 points. Silver at 44 level.

SLV-c1 : At 0.745. Will sell when SLV at USD48 level or SLV-c1 at 90cents.

9.55 pm : DOW up 150 points. SLV at 42.20 level, up further 1.3% again in the opening. Silver at 43.30, with a high at 44 level. So, I shall watch SLV to 48 or any bearish signal to sell. Gold at 1873 level now, went above 1890. GLD at 182, and touched new high again.

10.45 pm : SLV at 42.70 now, up 2.5%. DOW is testing 11,000 level.

TEH