Saturday, July 31, 2010
With the projection of 20% down(from 1.75 to 1.40, the previous downturn), the current downturn could go to about 1.18 from 1.52. That is 23% down.
There is an huge increase in its volume seen, showing the selling pressure is very great!! Nothing can stop the herds now, SELL SELL SELL is the sentiment. The 3 arrows showing MACD + RSI + Stochastic is DOWN or bearish. Technically extremely oversold with very high RED histogram seen now.
DOW flat - A123 dived to 10.00 level in the opening before recovering and shot all the way to 11.00(10% in a day) and closed at 10.78. What is 'nice' about US-stocks are they are active and volatile. So, I m still waiting for DOW to dive, and started to look into the green-stocks in US, besides China's green stock listed in HK. I will like to write what is in my mind regarding green-stock one day when markets dive. A123 is one of the green-stock which dived from USD20+ to current USD10+.
Talking about stock diving, let us take JCY which I bought at its low at 1.36 level. It registered a NEW low. You may call it historical low as it is lower than its IPO price(A123 are way below its IPO prices too AND 50% below most analysts' estimate). By the way, JCY listed last year when market sentiment was good, so ... it might be overpriced. No IPOs during the bad down-turn, right? Anyway, I have not done my checking on JCY. I cant remember how many times it was over subcribed. But I do know it went all the way up to near RM2. Today, it is at 1.25 ... with many SELL reports from the broker-houses. Technically it is VERY bearish and we wont know when it could recover, if ever ...
So, I want to re-call what I have written about EMH weeks ago. To challenge this EMH, lets us talk about the 'over-reaction' hypothesis(ORH). This is called Contrarian Investing Strategy or CIS. It says ... markets over-react both ways - up or down but more on downside!!
Note : EMH, ORH and CIS - quoted from Fred Tam's book.
UP - it is GREED in play. A stock shooting for the sky will over-react and way above its "Fair Value".
DOWN - it is FEAR in play. A stock diving into cold water might be drown and way below its "Fair Value".
"Buying on bad times and selling on good is a contrarian strategy just as buying on FEAR and selling on greed consistent with this strategy" - quote from Fred Tam's book.
I told my ex-colleague(LL), who is heavily into KLSE, about this strategy. It is common sense. I said "If you are in FEAR, that is the time you buy" and when you feel GREED, that is the time you think of selling. BUY only good fundamental stocks or blue-chips. Do not buy what I m buying. That was before I left Sabah and we still in touch.
We need to mention here that those diving down is NOT fundamentally flawed or have the bases to recover. Example : Transmile, LCL or recently Kenmark are good examples for a flawed waterfalls ... dived into the water and fall ... forever?
Also need to note that those speculation counters like KNM is also NOT in our CIS category. Saag or Scomi could easily fall in this speculating category too. So, CIS is not to be applied for such stocks.
Can JCY be categorised as a 'good' waterfall? I will do some homework on it to decide if I m going to use CIS on it. That means, I need to see if the sell-off is uncalled for(due to herds reading SELL report and not due to change in its fundamentals). If the sell off is temporary, it will rebound. And for good stocks, a sharp dive will give a sharp rebound(Newton's Third Law, tho the rebound may not be as strong).
BJCorp which down from 1.80 level to current 1.05 level could NOT be categorised as a good stock as for its speculative nature. So, CIS could not apply here.
Do some homework, look for those GOOD stocks which are way below its 'fair value'. And remember NEVER to believe any of the brokers' reports. Those analysts are just merely doing their JOB - to write a report about a company which their head/superior given to them. They HAVE to write the report and at times, the CONCLUSION was given to them prior to their findings!! If the 'boss' said SELL JCY ... then, they have to write about not so optimistic outlook about the company.
Example : Rubber-stocks. Many no longer talk about rubber-rally and many are retracing 20-40% from the peak. Example - Adventa going below RM3.00 now. When the HERDS are not noticing on rubber-stocks, do some homework on those GOOD stocks in the sector that being neglected ... and good stocks WILL rebound. Rubber is a GOOD sector for KLSE, and it will rally again, matter of time?? Look for the leads from its leader like TopGlove. I will keep averaging UP or DOWN on TopGlove as it is the leader of the sector which being neglected. That is CIS in practice. For investors, do not go into those 'cheap' and valueless company which being goreng-goreng. Obviously they are being used by syndicates to lure 'ikan bilis' traders, before you know it, u will be in their stomach. Be careful.
王傑 : 一無所有
1.00 pm : Just finished a tuition class and missed the BB-tutorial by CN in the morning. I could miss lots of CN meeting now if they putting it in Sat morning as I m starting a class. Well, core job comes first, then only my personal education.
5.45 pm : LionInd and Evergreen in focus in CN's forum by a trainer. Yes, both are highly in my 'liking' stocks list. Building-materials on the move after construction and property? Well, property will run further as building-materials picking up as the 'rally theme'. For property, YNHProp could be a good grab as many going into Samgoss's site will buy what he is buying. Yes, that could support the counter. Another being mentioned is Sunway. Last week I mentioned about Suunway, which I m still looking at it.
Stock watch : 3A, LionInd, Evergreen, YNHProp and Sunway. That is for next week. At least buying into any of these stocks, I could feel 'comfortable'.
Friday, July 30, 2010
8.50 am : I will be very busy with classes today, replacing some of my colleagues as they are going to Penang and Kuching today. I chosen Taman Negara. Next week, another batch will be going to Bali. These are annual staff-trips.
So, I couldnt monitor till 3pm, not even time for lunch!! 9 am till 3 am non-stop.
10.30 am : KurAsia cleared at 0.525. Cleared half of BJCorp at 1.10 done. Clearing Efficient at 0.215 not done yet. JCY at 1.31(touched 1.29). TopGlove is flat.
10.45 am : Cleared all my Efficient at 0.210 and queue to buyback at 0.200.
So, I have cleared KurAsia and Efficient for small profits. Also, will clear my remaining BJCorp later. Focusing on JCY and TopGlove.
12.50 pm : Malton and Bolton moving up 10% today. What do they have in common? well ... the last four letters are the same XX-LTON. So, look for another stock ending with LTON and they might rally? Haha ... I m joking, of coz. Both are property stocks and currently there is a party for some property stocks since IVORY listed. E&O is the obvious one, today in profit-taking mode. So ... MKLand moving, LandMark moving ... see? Hmm ... Samgoss said YNHProp, and he could be right as there is a property-rally. Move with the sector??
Tanco?? What is that? never mind... it is CHEAP, and easy-money for syndicates. So, when property-stocks rallying, Tanco is chosen for a PUNT. Surely I prefer YNHProp than Tanco tho it wont give me the 10% in one day!!
How about L&G which moved yesterday? Or KHSB now? These are for PUNTERS, not investors, ok? Never forget our Equine, the goreng counter of KLSE's property-stock. Tebrau, Keladi .... goreng-goreng ...
Let me take my fav for property-rally. Low risk will be IJMLand and higher risk will be E&O. There you are .... BUY BUY BUY. I m looking at IJMLand-wa, E&O and Magna now
3.25 pm : So, JCY going down .... at what level will it reverse? Hmm ... ever recover? while I m still comfortable to hold and buy further I will not buy till it reverse? Using TA for that?
BJCorp is a terrible goreng stock that I WONT be comfortable to hold. Cleared others at 1.06.
4.00 pm : KLCI losing 3 points. Axiata down ... good, as it moved strongly yesterday.
LionInd : Moving up 3 cents today. I m trying to interpret the chart and decide if it is time to grab back some?
Catching 'good' waterfalls - I m doing it my way.
I have cleared many 'punts' today, to reserve some bullets now to shoot JCY. It is at 1.27 now. Also to top-up my TopGlove at 6.50. Yes, I m averaging down, buying into oversold stocks. I m more comfortable with my 'old' methods tho it is slower in seeing results. For the past 2 months, too many short trades and I m losing ground and losing my mind ... no good.
4.30 pm : JCY at 1.25. WOW ... oversold is a BUY? I checked for 'news' .... no news for JCY?/ Then, why DIVING down steeply? Wait before top up ...
JCY : I will write more about her. It is a nice waterfall and those bought into it are catching a knife now.
E&O and P&O are rallying. Guess what? D&O moved up 3%. See?? Malton up0, Bolton up. Fine. What E&O, P&O and D&O got in common?? Can we see the relation? YES ... X&O. Homework, look if there is another X&O code trading in KLSE? BUY on Monday if it not move yet. Yeah!! See how kopi-tiam uncles punt into a stock?
Jason Derulo - In My Head
Yes, everything is in my head. Too cramped. Too congested. Too wired. Haha.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
BJCorp : MACD + RSI + Stochastic is OK. How about candle-stick? Is it reversal or just a pause before moving higher?
10.15 pm : EUR/USD which i longed at 1.2972 last week gaining 110 pips now for each 10k. So, profits at 240 pips now, and taking profit at 1.3100 as planned. It is at 1.3080 now.
1 pip = USD1. So, gained 260pips = +USD260. I have not trade forex in real, I opened an account for free-trial with FXCM. I need to learn well too. So far my beginner's luck is good? I have closed 3 positions positively. Well, to be frank ... I longed EUR/USD as EUR was at an extreme oversold AND Jim Rogers mentioned that he was currently going long on EUR. :)
A123 : Back to my purchase level at 10.50, it touched 11.48 before dives USD1 in two days!! I will hold on till oversold again and will BUY more into it. Currently I m eyeing for GLD as gold retraces and at 113 level, it is nice. Gold WILL rebound back.
BJCorp and JCY are the one two stocks in oversold region when I scanned for 'RSI oversold". Both in my hands!!
TopGlove showing a buy signal today, so I grabbed 1k units = RM6,700.
GLD : Yes, I sold my ZiJin today for this one. GLD at 113 level now.
7.00 am: DOW down a little, Gld at 113.78. Noted. A123 at 10.83. Hold till 12.00, at least.
9.10 am : Measat flying. KPJ rebounds ... grabbed KurAsia at 0.505 and 0.510 for the insurance-rally. LOL
Mudajaya : Moving up 3% today, waiting to move in too. TopGlove moving, looking at TopGlove-cc.
BJCorp : Breaking 1.10 resistance, clearing half soon.
JCY : Do nothing except see lower than 1.35 to collect.
Topglove : 1k units at 6.70. I chosen Topglove as I m more comfortable holding to it and wait for rebounds. So, I hv to forget about MudaJaya.
10.55 am : KLCI up 2.68 points. New high, going for 1360 now?
KurAsia : Grabbed more at 0.515. Done for the day. KurAsia shown a similar candle-stick as BJCorp before it rebounded. Can it works now?
Efficient : At 0.205, cleared some at 0.205(those done at 0.195 yesterday) and others sit on it. I still have those I bought at 0.20 and 0.205 yesterday.
JCY : Touched 1.34, at 1.35 now. So, 1.34 is its new low now. WAIT.
Hai-O : At 3.65, BB squeeze seen. Moving below 20MA. Wait. RHBInvest downgraded it with fair value 3.63. Hmm ...
JCY : At 1.32 now ... ouch. Bought early again? This one I will sit on it(only 3k units done so far). So, I m not buying at the moment. Wait for first green-histogram seen, then only decide.
JCY at 1.30 now ... interesting as I bought, it dives. More to come ... wait.
7 pm : KLCI closed higher by 3 points. JCY at 1.33, Efficient at 0.200(touched 0.215), BJCorp at 1.09(failed to clear at 1.15), TopGlove at 6.71 and KurAsia at 0.515.
Only JCY and TopGlove are for keeping. Others will clear when profits seen(hopefully).
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
I noticed that your style of trading is quite the opposite of mine. I will normally go with the trend, trading stocks that are heading upwards. That way, I can minimize my risk by cutting loss when it hits below its previous low (or immediate support).
However, I sometimes also do track stocks that are on a downtrend ("waterfalls" like you describe them). But before I go in, I would normally wait for a clear signal of reversal before I enter, such as breaking through its immediate resistance.
Just want to share my observation for today (DISCLAIMER: this is not an invitation to buy). TMC Life today just broke through its resistance level of RM0.36 with high volume to close at RM0.385. In the next few trading days, it might head towards its next resistance level of RM0.40 and possibly the strong resistance level of RM0.44. Immediate support is now at RM0.36 and stronger support at RM0.34. Other observations include MACD still very much positive and Stochastic slightly overbought.
Well, I will like to reply this comment of yours which I will like to thank you for taking your time in writing to me a little of your strategies. I shall also clarify a little of my 'randomness' and reflect on my trades.
Here it goes ...
As you are a regular reader, i shall start with saying that I m LEARNING and experimenting with my trades. Yes, I do use REAL money(only real money could give me real experience - real joy or real pain) ... so, I do know the risk.
I have been trading using RSI on the stocks I like(fundamentally) and traded many stocks for some time. Yes, someone mentioned that RSI is just ONE of the many indicators and wonder WHY I mentioned only RSI. So, using RSI alone(I added stochastic in later stage), I will BUY when stock started to show RSI below 30(or historically low RSI is a beauty for me!). Thus, the 'waiting' period was longer ... at times, I gained a mere 5-8% in a winning trade after holding for 2-3 months!!
Then, since I attended the CN course, I focud on learning MACD and yes, MACD alone. Forget about oversold ... I have shown more failures in my recent 2 months trades as I was struggling with what I m learning!! I feel uncomfortable chasing the momentum. Perhaps I was too used to catching a waterfalls or if unlucky, I could catch a knife!! OUCH.
I was taught to FOLLOW the TREND. BUY only uptrending stocks!! Or look for some chart formations, coupled with the indicators to look for breakouts(ascending triangles, flag or pennant, BB bullish breaout etc etc).
MACD + RSI + Stochastic : I failed in many trades using these as I could not know the 'formula' for my trades yet.
Last week I started candle-sticks!! Hmm ... it is overhelming for a rookie or a novice like me, u see. But I want to experiment with it. I m learning each of it separately and trying to put the puzzle into one piece!!
Yes, I used 'buy at support, sell at resistance' before(last year). Obviously I read about all these before, but it takes me TIME to learn and apply. And also, re-learn or refine what I have learnt. I do many mistakes, but it is through mistakes that we learn(I hope). Yes, at times I do repeat my mistakes due to emotions(lack of patience, influences by articles etc ).
Waterfalls : I like TopGlove or MudaJaya now. These are not empty penny stocks like Kenmark or HwaTai or whatever they goreng-ing. So, if a 'good' stock that I like and in my stalk list are diving, I will tempted to move in. Today, instead of RSI alone, I tried to look into MACD and its support/resistance level. Adding in candle-sticks(which I m trying to memorising the types!!), I do try to see reversal in the downtrend.
Example : BJCorp supported at Rm1.00, shown a reversal candlestick yesterday, definitely oversold and MACD histogram showing many reds, and first green histogram. That was shown yesterday. So, today ... in the morning I hesitated. I was looking at JCY or TopGlove but seeing BJCorp moving, clearing my losing KKB, I give it a PUNT. It is a punt as I dont like the counter!!
How about JCY? Did I buy it too early again? I get greedier when stocks moving lower and to its lowest point. JCY is trading below its IPO level(dont know how they valued her). So, I place a position at its low ... and obviously I m going to average DOWN if it move below 1.30? I was thinking ... should I be waiting for the reversal candle-sticks? I will buy more if there is a reversal candle stick. You may say I still do not 100% trust TA ... it is because I DONT KNOW HOW, not because it is 'false' or not good.
Measat flew off, how do we catch a stock before it flies off? That is what in every trader's mind. Tmr or next week, there will be few stocks flying off. Which one? All speculators will be talking about hot-pick or hot babes ... without limited funds, limited knowledge, limited experiences ... the odds is stacking against me!!
Once I could placed FA + TA + EA making is a better 'rojak', certainly more customers will like my specialty. You will be my VIP guest. Hehe
Thanks again for pointing out. Night
God bless us everyone
We're a broken people living under loaded gun
And it can't be outfoght
Can't be outdone
It can't out matched
It can't be outrun
And when I close my eyes tonight
To symphonies of blinding light
God bless everyone
We're a broken people living under loaded gun
Like memories in cold decay
Transmissions echoing away
Far from the world of you and I
Where oceans bleed into the sky
This is called MUSIC to me. Linkin Park rulez. And it deserved a post by itself!! Haha
High Wave is a type of candlestick characterized with either a very long upper or a lower shadow. It has only a short real body. A group of these patterns may signal a market turn.
1. The real body of the candlestick is small. Its color is not important.
2. Either the upper or the lower shadow, or both shadows are long.
The High Wave just like long legged doji shows that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. This pattern is formed when prices trade well above and/or below the day's opening price, but then the price closes almost at the same level as the opening price. It means that the end result is not different from the initial open despite the whole excitement and volatility during the day. The pattern implies a loss of sense of direction and that there is a great amount of indecision in the market. A group of high wave candlesticks signal a possible reversal in the market.
High Wave is especially important at tops.
High Wave is also a single candlestick pattern. Hence a confirmation is definitely required in the form of an opposite move to the prior trade on the next trading day in order to judge that a reversal may be starting.
I m learning about the candle-sticks. So, I m following closely the few stocks I bought and try to learn to use the TA. Correct me if I m wrong or incorrect, ok? Thanks.
As I only bought 200 units of it, I have NO intention to sell or buy again. The transaction fee is very expensive. So, since it is seen as a 'reversal' from the current level, I will be glad to BUY when it retraces lower with a BUY signal again. Yes, average down or top up.
7.00 am : DOW is flat. A123 at USD11 now. Sell at USD12 or any reversal signal seen?
JASO : Closed 6% lower, finally correcting after shooting from 4.50 to 6.50 in less than a month! It closed at 6.03. Will wait ...
BJCorp and JCY in focus today as they are oversold. BJCorp is for quick punt but JCY can hold a while as tech-stocks are recovering,plus it has not shown any green histogram yet. So, buying 'early' before it rebounds?
3A and Notion worth looking as they might rebound.
Of the four above, I will choose 3A.
JCY : Moving lower ... grabbed some at 1.36, market value. I still prefer those diving rather than momentum play, ya! So, I m going to clear my KKB at breakeven(average at current RM2.00) and sit on JCY.
TopGlove : At 6.50, touched 6.49 .... still waiting to buy HUGELY. Looking into TopGlove-cc for a punt too. IF I buy TopGlove, at least many will say ... yes, that is a good stock. Good choice. But IF I buy KKB, what is that? Sarawak-stock in play again?
Efficient : Quietly moving up, at 0.20 now. Nice.
10.30 am : Efficient done at 0.195 for 10k units only. Collecting it again. I have bought this one at 0.18-0.20 and a nice profits sold at 0.22-0.24. Can it does it trick again? Will collect at 0.190, 0.185 and 0.180.
11.00 am : Grabbed another 5k units at 0.200.
11.15 am : KKB ... yet another bad-trades. CUT CUT CUT. Potong, go in JCY and Efficient.
ZiJin : Cleared at 4.90. Moving more into A123 for my foreign stock at the moment.
12.20 am : KKB cut off at 1.96-1.97 as it shown a false breakout(BB) yesterday and formed a reversal candle-stick. Sigh. One bad thing about TA is that it needs confirmation or else it MIGHT be a false alarm. I have been caught in bad trades recently due to inconsistent TA that I m learning. i MIGHT understand it better one day.
Bad trades : Hai-O - no bullish divergence seen but I thought it was. Support - 4R1G is buy, so I thought. But can gain a little but failed to take profits when candle-stick shown bearish reversal. Sunway - cut yesterday - thought it is a bullish breakout last Friday, too bad ... the gravestone doji shown, and I hv to run again. KKB - cut today - failed. Hmmm ...
So, I m buying JCY at 1.36, its low at 1.35. NO SIGNAL of buying in TA - I m back with my common-sense trading. Buy when it is going lower, wait and position for rebound. Hmm ... it might take me 1 week or 1 month but at least I m comfortable with it. I prefer oversold stock, honestly.
2.15 pm : JCY wont be done at 1.35? The queue is so long but I m queueing at 1.35, anyway. Huge queue to SELL at 1.37. So, bull or bear to win?
2.55 pm : Added 3k units of Efficient at 0.205. Wont chase further but will top-up if it goes below 0.200.
3.15 pm : BJCorp moving today!! Signals confirmed. BUY BUY ... punt punt. TopGlove in GREEN now but JCY in red. hmmm
3.25 pm : I noticed that KurAsia and AirAsia moving ... anything to do with ASIA?
3.35 pm : PUNT into BJCorp - grabbed at 1.05-1.06. Moving up again, grab more later.
6.15 pm : KLCI up 3 points. BJCorp done at 1.05-1.08. Wait tmr for clearing? I m not comfortable with BJCorp as a stock but TA saying it is a BUY. 4R1G and touched strong support at 1.00 yesterday.
JCY : At its low 1.36, could it go lower and I might get 'stucked'? Queues at 1.35, its low, done today.
Efficient : i m surprised that I dived down and my queues at 0.195 were done! Luckily it moved back to close at 0.205. Holding 50k of units of it now.
KKB : Luckily I cleared it early, it closed lower at 1.94, touched 1.92. Is that the power of TA, if read well? I m not good in it. too bad.
ZiJin closed higher, at 5.14. Sold too early again. Hmm ...
張清芳 Stella Chang 不想你也難
The above song is dedicated to the stocks which I have sold for good profits. It is not easy to forget them. But, we always try to forget those bad-losses and blame it on bad-stocks. Actually it is bad-timing that I m experiencing that making me losing. For example, BP bought at USD37, cut at USD30 and it went up all the way to USD39. For example A123 bought at USD9 anc cut-it-short at 8.73 only to see it is at 11.00 now. I bought back A123 at 10.50. Ha-choo ...
Nvertheless, there are simple some trades of some stocks we could never forget - good or bad.
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
6.45 am : DOW up 100 points, A123 closed at USD10.70. Ok.
Date : Aug 10, 2010 Q2 2010 Earnings Release for A123.
So,I shall hold till Aug10, at least unless there are signs of reversal?
USD/JPY : taken profits last Friday for 45 pips. Second time profit now.
EUR/JPY : My current position showing gains of 20(x 2) pips. Will only sell when it breaks 1.3000.
9.10 am : Breakout in KKB, grabbed at 2.03 and 2.04. Queue 2.00-2.02 and not chasing higher. It touched 2.06.
9.15 am : KKB done at 2.02.
9.25 am : KLCI up 5 points but BJCorp breaks RM1 level, at 0.995 now.
12.05 pm : KLCI in red? KKB at 2.00, all my queues done.
Stalk :TopGlove is still in RED, at RM6.52 but Notion rebounds, up 4%
12.15 pm : KKB done at 1.99.
12.25 pm : KKB done at 1.98. Hmm ...
阿牛 - 至霖情歌 Haha ... funny song, but still enjoy it. LOL
Sunway : Failed trade again, with the gravestone-doji. I dont really know much but it says --- reversal of trends. So, I sold half at 1.60 but it is at 1.59 now. Technically it is about to move lower in short-term. So, I shifted my attention to KKB, instead.
PN1 : We have heard of PN17 or PN4 quite often, but what is PN1? KBB is into PN1, reported by The Edge today. Will read further ...
KKB : Closed at 1.97, forming a 'hanging man'. Another bad sign in candle-stick which means a pause in uptrend and I m buying at the peak again? Hmm ...
Sunway : Bought 1.60-1.61, sold 1.60 today. Silly, right? Not a choice as the candle-stick telling me it is 'gravestone' doji, means it will go lower. Believe it or not?
Hai-O : Bollinger squeeze forming? Waiting for breakout?
BJCorp : Managed to reversal candle-stick and first green histogram today!! BUY BUY BUY ... that is the indication. RSI oversold, stochastic crossover at oversold region!! Beautiful chart, in TA sense but dont ask BJCorp got any FA or not, ok? It is for quick trades, punts .. not buy and hold.
Support : Long leg doji formed today, showing it is about to move up. Second green spotted.At 1.48 now. Check.
So, KKB is a wrong trade again, according to the chart. I should move in for Notion, BJCorp or Support tmr?? How about Axiata which showing first green too? Axiata certainly a 'better' stock to feel 'safe'?
JCY : At its new low, can go lower? At oversold level, white candle-stick today, showing sign of reversal?
So, I shall sell KKB at breakeven, if possible. Then, place Hai-O, Support, JCY, BJCorp and Axiata in my stalk-list, do some homework tonight and decide what to chase tmr. Phew ... it is tiring, actually ...
Monday, July 26, 2010
Comment by my trainer(in CN forum)
For Topglove, the trend is still up but on a shorter-term it appears to be stucked in a narrow trading range.
Immediate support: 6.72/6.65
Immediate resistance: 6.90
Next resistance: 7.38
1) MACD Histogram is still showing a series of reds.
2) RSI remains flat around the 50% level
3) Stochastic continues to hover at the oversold region
Given lacklustre readings seen from the indicators, Topglov needs to clear above the resistance at 6.90 (classical+20-day MA) in order for the bulls to resurface to see a potential upmove towards 7.38
Stalk : 3A, TopGlove and BJCorp.
Buy : Sunway and Pelikan.
Trade : Zelan and KEuro.
Rubber : Incken, IRCB for punting. Watch Kossan, Adventa and Supermax.
Consumer and Construction still in play. Pay attention to those active stocks to punt into it for short-trades.
9.05 am : Sunway done at 1.60, clearing Sunway-wc at 0.610. Grabbing more of Zelan.
9.15 am : Sunway done at 1.61.
9.35 am : KLCI up 5 points.
ZhongWang : Diving below HKD5, losing 8% now.
12.10 pm : I m not watching as I m preparing my paper-works but I m keeping my eyes on ZhongWang. P/E at 6 level, a very good value buy for investors.
Zelan : Cleared at 0.67, bought at 0.67 last Friday.
Sunway : At 1.60, queueing more at 1.59, 1.58 and 1.57 .. waiting.
Dropping : BJCorp, Notion and TopGlove continue to be in reds. MudaJaya and Pelikan are dropping.
Zijin suspended. ZhongWang at 4.95. My two-Zs to watch. Well, in KLSE I just exited my two Zs too Zelan and ZhuLian.
ZhongWang closed at 4.93, lost 8.9% this morning. I will wait for it to retrace and confirmation to BUY using charts. We should buy when a stock we like dive, right? We should buy a low P/E stock, right? We should buy a leader in the sector, right? We should buy a depressed sector, right? And we should be buying during market-correction, right? So ... if all that is answered RIGHT, then I shall wait ... and justifying myself that I should be buying ZhongWang when it dive further.
My recent trades
BJCorp : I was lucky to escape BJCorp when I bought into it at 1.25, and lucky to hold to my discipline when it reached my cut-point at 1.25. Today, it touched 1.01. Terrible stock to hold, actually with the big-land-buaya behind the scene. So, I must promise myself not to move in BJCorp, unless for quick punt. Even that, the lurking buaya knew what we are doing and will shake you off. Beware if one is holding to BJCorp. We have been warned MANY times not to touch this 'hot' stock. Syndicates using it as a tool. Do yourself a favour ... there are many good stock around.
MyEg : At 0.795, another close call when I decided to cut-loss last Friday at 0.82 as that is my stop-loss level. It might move lower, according to the charts.
Pelikan : Bought on Thu at 1.22-1.24, cleared for small profits on Friday at 1.25 and 1.27. Today it is back to 1.22, touched 1.21 this morning.
ZhuLian : Another case of taking profit too early ... well, when I bought at 1.93-1.95 on Thu, I was thinking of clearing on Friday(with Sunway in mind). So, I was glad to clear at 2.00 BUT it is at 2.10 level today!! Talking about bad-timing?
Hai-O : Took a small loss and cleared all last Friday too as I was told that my bullish-divergence understanding was in-correct. So, admitting mistakes while learning, I cleared it at 3.70 level, lower than my average of 3.72.
Support : Another mistake done 2 weeks ago, and failed to take profits at 1.56, instead cleared for a loss last Friday. Today it is still at 1.48, becoming its resistance level. Wont look back on this one.
E&O : My fav property stock moves from 0.88(support) to 1.03 now ... I have cleared at 0.93 and 0.96 before it moved to 0.88 level ... but ... I did not stalk it back. Next round, please.
GPacket : This is simply a usual case of taking profit too early for me. Hmm ... *piak*
LionInd : Well, cleared at 1.54 and 1.56, I guess that is OK as it didnt shoot to 1.62 that I thought it might.
4.20 pm : KLCI up 5 points.
ZhongWang closed at HKD4.93, lost 9%. Noted again.
7.15 pm : Dinner time. KLCI closed 6.14 points higher today but many stocks are still in profit-taking mode.
MudaJaya : At 5.69, lost another 3.23% today. Watch ...
Pelikan : At 1.21. Stalk.
MyEg : At 0.775, lost another 3%.
1. BJCorp --- watch as it will rebound when syndicates move in
2. IRCB --- same comment as above, a darling of syndicates.
These two counters should NOT be in any INVESTOR's portfolio. No value, no FA in these. It is for speculators and punters.
3. JCY @ 1.37, below its IPO value now.
4. Notion @ 2.65, broke 2.75 support level, looking at 2.60 next.
Tech-stocks are not doing well at the moment, as consumers and constructions in play. It is rotational, so syndicates might wait for time to move into tech-sector again.
A123 : I bought at 9.00, sold for a loss at 8.73. Today it is at 9.70. WOW .... OUCH!! Buy back buy back ... fast!!
9.45 pm : Grabbed back A123 ... at 10.50!! Arrghhh ....
Sunday, July 25, 2010
Example : China DongXiang (03818.hk)
Historical chart(listed since 2007)
Two lines drawn. Since listed, markets dived. So, the stock dived to 1.70 level in Nov 2008 and 1.90 level in Mac 2009, formed a double-bottom. Then, the uptrend started and it surged all the way to the 6.00 level, that is more than triple its historical low. Then, it retraced to 4.50 level, and have been trading between 4.50 - 6.00 range. 4.50 level becomes its strong support level and 6.00 is its strong resistance.
A year chart(since May 2009) : The blue arrows showing that each time it tested its strong support level at 4.50, it will rebound to 5.70, the first resistance level and then if that broken, it will go to 6.00 level again, its strong support. For it to continue in uptrend, it needs to break 6.00 with high volume and going to its historical high!! Our discussion here will be SIDEWAY trading.
So, it is at 4.50 level AGAIN for the fifth time in a year!! If I m to grab this one at 4.50, profit taking shall be at 5.20, but a break of this resistance, we shall see 5.70 level. Lets say, I will take profits at 5.20 level, without fail it rebounded from 4.50 to 5.20. That is 70 cents profits (definitely more than 10%, ok? Do your Math!). So, I have taken 15% profits FOUR times in ONE YEAR. Nice sideway trading example, right? Note that its RSI always oversold when it was at 4.50 level. It is NOW.
Imagine you buy at HKD4.50 a year ago, and didnt take profits ... guess what is your profit?? ZERO. So, I repeat ... buy-n-hold is NOT trading. It is a lazy way of buying a stock. Anyway, we are all different. Some ignorant, some lazy ... but majority of them DO NOT have much knowledge about investing/trading!! Are you surprise to hear that 90% of people in markets are actually LOSING money? I was surprised when I first heard in a market talk, I thought the speaker was pulling my legs. I was one of the 90%(feeling better, phew!).
Be realistic ... how long could one really hold? Like Warren Buffett? Do you know that the stock PROTON was at RM16 before market crashed in 1997? Today we are atlking about RM5 is the resistance for Proton!! Hmm ... buy-n-hold? Just admit that you DO NOT have the knowledge to be in markets, ya. Even if you have little knowledge like me ... profitting from market means we have to be the 10%, doing what others DO NOT do.
Ok ok ... learning corner here is meant for those novices or newbies, like me ... and we learn together, ok? I have known few uncles/auties who are in markets for ages but dont know what is sideway trading!! Beacuse once they bought a stock, they will hold ....
BTW, there are counters in KLSE which are in the mode and by choosing a good fundamental or good dividend stock to trade even though it is in sideway could benefit us BETTER than those ignorant buy-n-hold investors.
Hope thats help.
p/s : Personally I will NOT buy into this one as it is a sports-apparel company. I m more into energy or mining or materials stocks.
It stated that prices reflect all available information.
1. There are a large number of profit-maximising participants concerned with the analysis and valuation of securities and operating independent of each other.
2. New information regarding securities comes to the market in a random fashion and that the announcements over time are generally independent of one another.
3. Investors will the react to adjust security prices rapidly to reflect that effect of new information. As a result, prices will fully reflect all available information. Rational investors immediately exploit any arbitrage possibilities.
For example : A low P/E effect states that there is a tendency for stocks with low price relative to earnings ratio to outperform the market.
TEH : That means that IF market is efficient, the lower P/E stocks SHOULD outperform the markets, in general.
Taken from Fred Tam's : Profitability of TA
IP Man - I watched on DVD last night, a rare activity that I will do.
10.45 am : I will complete my above writing at night, I hope. I m giving tuition now, yes .... Sunday morning!! Well, I will not complain as I still think that I need more tuition classes to increase my income.
4.00 pm : I was searching for a stock to BUY in HKSE tmr ... yes, I have NOT been holding HKSE for some time now, so I look into my old flame, CWP. Hey, there is a change in trend(reversal) at the moment. It is at 0.77-0.78 now. Yes, the reversal was at 0.72-0.73 ... late by few days but at least it is moving uptrend now. But, currently the green-energy sector is NOT in play. Hmm ...
Saturday, July 24, 2010
Going for RHB market talk later, and Chart Nexus meeting.
10.50 am : I m at Bangsar for CN's meeting instead. I had an extra class from 8am to 10am(for charity ... collected RM131 from them to be given to our charity club which going to an orphanage today!), and do not feel like going for the RHB talk tho I registered. That is something 'new' to me ... as I do not miss market-talks(free??!) ... but, I m taking a pause. I m attending the CN's meeting as I want to learn more from my trainer in TA, and ask him about my failures(Support and Hai-O trades). I have a clearance sales yesterday when KLCI up 9 points. I have only 2k units of Zelan to play with. So, I 'lost' about RM300+ from my clearings yesterday. The losses could be larger if not of my good&quick punt into Pelikan and Zhulian, but I still have net loss. What do we do when are losing in our trades?
To me, I will take in - and will analyse my mistakes tonight(after I ask my 'tutor' later) so that I could jot it down here or in my trading booklet. No one want to lose, including me(phew ... I m still normal! Haha) but it is the defeat that could make me feel stronger and more determine to learn. I m learning TA at the moment, and I m VERY slow ... I failed so far.
That explains why I will be very persistance in attending any talks or meeting organised by CN, after all that is a support they are giving us uncles/aunties who are struggling in interpreting the charts, the price-volumes action and the market psychology?
12.30 pm : Chart Nexus, Bangsar
I will like to write about EMH tonight. That will be in my learning corner for today. Those newbies or those still losing money in markets(despite KLCI reaching to its new high level) might need to underdtand EMH. I was reading Fred's book and given me the idea to share with others my beliefs. Perhaps those kind and know-how could give me some pointers on the efficiency of markets?
Dar Wong : In our opinion, it is worthwhile to wait for long-term investments as the global stock indices have shown their first leg down recently in Q2. The next one will likely erupt in 2H 2010 and it pays to wait while watching your cash sitting in the bank being safeguard by the banks as your money-janitor!
Chart Nexus's meeting
Support : Hit resistance at 1.56 with bearish candlestick, actually. So, I should SELL it the next day before reaching my cut-point at 1.47 yesterday where I took the loss. Failing to identify a bearish candle-stick was my main mistake as I was trading using MACD alone. Well, next week I could add in MACD + RSI + Stochastic + Candlestick. Later on, I shall add in BB(Bolinger Bands). I will add ADX too ... I m tooo slow in my learning!!
KLCI : Support at 1332, at resistance now, waiting for breakout to next resistance at 1380 level. MACD 4R1G seen. Breakout on Monday??
Stocks discussed : Incken, Bursa ... zzzzz .... SUNWAY.
Sunway was mentioned and the conclusion is a BUY. As I was bored with the meeting, suddenly I was alerted - SUNWAY. Therefore, I shared with the 30-odd CN's coursemates my opinions. Ooopss ... it is like I m picking Sunway as a BUY and many of them(as blind as a herd of sheeps) might jump it and NOT knowing when to sell? Hmm ... I think I need to remain keep quiet as I m exposing my identity. Hmm ...
Then, I wrote in the CN's forum(I seldom post anything there as there are too many sifus around there). This is my post. :)
Mentioned in the meeting(KL) just now. I could not upload the chart as login failed.
Yes, to share with others what I shared during the meeting and why I think Sunway will move up.
1. DOW up.
2. Construction sector in play.
3. It is lagging behind many contruction stocks which have moved.
4. Look into Sunway-wc too, it was up 5% yesterday. Normally baby moves first, then mommy will follow. Warrant players move into stocks that wil be in play.
5. This morning, RHBInvest got a market talk and many could download the reports by Mr Lim of RHBInvest. SUNWAY is the top value pick by RHBInvest for construction with FV at 2.35.
6. It is fundamentally a good stock.
I m just pointing on my opinions on Sunway. I m not good in TA or charts. So, please seek others opinions BEFORE you decide to jump in.
p/s : If you profit from it, I want my teh-tarik(as usual) but if you lose that is your risk. Fair?
Friday, July 23, 2010
3A : Support at 1.76, nice to trade again.
Topglove : Still a wait ... wait for 1st green in the MACD histogram. Wait for the selling volumes to decrease. Wait for the support level as 50MA(blue line) around RM6.45 - 6.50. Wait for RSI going below 30 level, if possible, or the stochastic to go below 20. WAIT ... watch Topglove-ca/cb/cc for warrant players. I shall pick Topglove-cc again.
Waterfalls ... something I m more comfortable trading. With RSI showing oversold and moving to support, I m adding in MACD to be in green + a reversal candle-stick, I will move in largely in one or two of the above. Yes, TopGlove is the best FA stock I will like, so for low-risk taking, move in TopGlove, ok? 3A is uptrending since Kuok moved in. A good counter to trade. I m comfortable to buy at support level but it is NOT oversold. So, this is what I m learning at CN, to trade with trend, buy high and sell higher?? Lastly, one of the most oversold stock in KLSE is Vincent's BJCorp. I dont know about BerJaya Retail's listing as I do not read much. But, this is for a higher risk players ... and I might move in for a punt once it reaches support RM1(must confirm by a reversal candlestick).
I added Notion as someone asked me about it. As always, I have NO comment on stocks as I do not read much, I know nothing much about TA to share. But, I added here as I m writing about waterfalls. I prefer 3A, BJcorp or TopGlove that I m monitoring to move in now. Buy Notion at your own risk, technically it is still downturn and waiting for 2.70 support, wait for reversal. Good luck. (p/s : unless u treat me a nice dinner? hehe)
Currently there is a rally in consumer stocks. Forget about fundamentals, ok? HwaTai is just a biscuit-stock, why it has been attracting so many investors? Well ... it is the syndicates, decided to have some biscuits, I mean ... goreng the biscuits and food stocks. Look at London Biscuits as the leader ... or our friend, Kawan. Is Apollo shooting like a rocket too?
If there is a rubber-rally, I wont mind riding on them. At least there is some fundamental to talk about. Currently rubber-stocks failed to follow through the rebound created last week and dragged lower by TopGlove. Even Supermax is moving lower.
10.05 am : KLCI up 6 points. Support cleared half for small loss at 1.49. Zhulian cleared all at 2.00 for small profits, covering the losses by Support.
Pelikan at 1.28, queueing to clear at 1.29 now, taking small profits too.
12.10 pm : KLCI up 7 points. Cleared part of Pelikan at 1.28, left part at 1.29. Grabbed Zelan at 0.67, market price.
MyEg at 0.82, still slightly below my entry price, and waiting for moments to grab more or shall I cut if I want Zelan?
ZiJin back to HKD5.00. Hold till HKD5.50 for 80cents profits?
ZhuLian at 2.05 now, up again AFTER I cleared it at 2.00. See?
So, as I m clearing Pelikan and Support today, will it jump up next week? Look at KPJ-wa which I grabbed at 1.66 just 2-3 weeks ago, today it is 1.86, ya. Yes, KPJ will be a good way of INVESTING. Buy, hold and keep for a while.
2.45 pm : Support at 1.47, terrible. CUT CUT CUT.
Construction-stocks in play.
Besides consumer-stocks, construction stocks being gorened too. gamuda started the game, then we have MRCB, UEM ... and BinaPuri with those LCCT or MRT stories burning hot. ... Jaks, Ranhill, Fajar following ... Zelan too. When I looked at Zelan for a punt, I will peep at AZRB. Today, MMCCorp moved. You know the connections between MMC, Zelan and AZRB, right?
Muhibah was moving too, I observed days ago. Then, Sunway was lagging behind a few days before moving forward. Today Sunway is UP too. The whole sector is being used by syndicate to goreng-goreng. I might get trap with Zelan if I m not careful.
So, do you like biscuits or buildings? These two are running ... besides SEG and HELP. Yes, help me please ... should I buy HELP? Hmmm ...
Learning to relate the sector(s) and stocks related which are moving could benefit traders. Hai-O was moving down, ZhuLian followed. Today ZhuLian shoots up, Hai-O still retracing?? So, will Hai-O follow suits soon?
MyEg : Cleared my 3k units of MyEg for small loss at 0.82, instead of topping-up. Rule in trading : Do not average down, cut the loser ... get into the uptrend stock and ride on it. Is that so?
So, I m holding to so many 'losers' - Support, HaiO and MyEg. I m clearing all today for losses.
I have cleared ZhuLian (too early again) and clearing Pelikan too. These bought yesterday!!
Stalk : Supermax, BJCorp, LionInd and KPJ(back in my list as it is going down today)
5.05 pm : KLCI up 9 points but I cut-off many for short gains/losses. Pelikan and ZhuLian is positive, MyEg, Support and Hai-O is negative.
7.05 pm : KLCI up 9.63 to close at 1345.68. So, shall we see 1,350 soon?
Cosumer : YSP up now, next goreng counter in consumer?
CCB : Dropped 17% today ... what is going on? Isnt CCB selling Merz?
A123 back to USD9.00, I LOST AGAIN ... sold it then it shoot up in two days!! That happened to BP too. Bought at USD37, sold USD30 ...then it move to USD27 only to shoot up to USD39. AT USD37 now ... what's up, doc?
Thursday, July 22, 2010
12.10 pm : DOW down 100 points. KLCI down 6 points.
Pelikan : Done 2k @ 1.22, 1k @ 1.23 and 0.5k @ 1.24. Queue 2k @ 1.21.
MyEg : In red, wait for clear. Only 3k done yesterday.
Hai-O and Support not performing at all. Support showing first red histogram yesterday. So, I hv to cut off again?
Zijin : Back to HKD4.70 level.
BYD Elec : Rebounds from HKD4 level, at HKD4.20 now. Shall I punt into it?
10.40 pm : DOW up 200 points!! Unbelievable ... I thought the sifu said it will dive once it rebounded to 10100-10200 level? It is back to 10300 level, perhaps temporary? So, I will like to SELL my Support which is technically turned bearish!! Hai-O is not performing too. Sigh. As for GPacket, I cleared it and it jumped high the next day. Will it jump up higher IF I clear Support tmr for a small loss? We shall see ...
Currently, I m changing my stock-portfolio to consumer-stocks : Hai-O, ZhuLian, Pelikan and another is MyEg. So, Support is a clearing tmr and also Pelikan(overbought).
Notion, BJCorp, TopGlove and 3A in my view as they are diving. I STILL prefer oversold counters but my trading with CN saying I should buy an uptrend stock!! I m struggling to learn that ... but it is like changing my mentality of not going for waterfalls?
Should I go for SEGI or HELP? Or UEMLand or even ... whatever consumer-stocks without much fundamental they are goreng-ing now? Is stock market really a place for goreng-goreng? No wonder they called it chow-ku-piew = goreng shares. Haha. Never mind ...
I m still not mentality well. Night.
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Cleared A123 at USD8.73 done. It closed at USD8.55, bearish.
GPacket is shooting higher AFTER I cleared it yesterday? Well, it happens ...
10.35 am : I m not feeling so well again. Anyway, KLCI is feeling good, up 7 points!!
Hai-O : Trimming my positions as it is not moving.
Support : Clearing it as 1.53 as it is not moving. Yes, it might shoot up tmr after I cleared it, I know.
11.10 am : Sold some Hai-O at 3.71. Bought MyEg at 0.845 as I was eyeing it yesterday when I cleared GPacket. Technically MyEg showing a bullish crossover in its MACD yesterday!
TopGlove : It went up to RM7 just now, but back to red region, at 6.88 now.
BJCorp : Still in red, at 1.12 now.
11.30 am : KLCI still up 7 points but Topglove at 6.82 now. This downturn will take some time and I will hope I m patient enough to wait ...
12.15 pm : MyEg done at 0.840. Well, it is at new high(resistance now). We were taught to buy at support, sell at resistance. Isnt it 'stupid' of me to buy it at resistance? Note that what we learnt and what we do may be different!!
Karyn White - Superwoman
Five for fighting - Superman
I can't stand to fly
I'm not that naive
I'm just out to find
The better part of me
I'm more than a bird:I'm more than a plane
More than some pretty face beside a train
It's not easy to be me
Wish that I could cry
Fall upon my knees
Find a way to lie
About a home I'll never see
It may sound absurd:but don't be naive
Even Heroes have the right to bleed
I may be disturbed:but won't you conceed
Even Heroes have the right to dream
It's not easy to be me
Up, up and away:away from me
It's all right:You can all sleep sound tonight
I'm not crazy:or anything:
I can't stand to fly
I'm not that naive
Men weren't meant to ride
With clouds between their knees
I'm only a man in a silly red sheet
Digging for kryptonite on this one way street
Only a man in a funny red sheet
Looking for special things inside of me
It's not easy to be me.
There is a new service apartment to be completed in Sept 2010 soon nearby my working place. It is sold-out and very expensive RM450psf, I think. So, I decent 1000sf will cost me RM450k which I cant afford. The smaller units will cost no less than RM300k. So, I m calling the agent to rent a unit, instead. The rental will be ranging from RM1500 - RM1800.
Current I m renting an apartment which needs 10 minutes drive IF no jam. Well, it certainly jam in USJ(ultra-super jam) here. So, as it is walking distance, I could safe my time ... by walking to work!!
The idea is ... I need a place for my home tuition and my current place is too far away from the center. By moving to the center, I could certainly easier to 'market' myself, being in better position/location. With that, I could give tuition at nights too!! Currently I could only give tuition after work, that is 4pm-6pm. With just two extra tuition classes at night, I could cover the rental. I could even rent out a room. It sounds 'ideal' but I m still considering it.
With exams in Oct/Nov ... I need to decide soon. And to establish myself here as a good tutor, I need to be more agrressive in marketing myself. Isnt that my plans last year before I decided to move bakc to KL? I m talking to myself now, actually.
Marketing myself : This is an area I may not good in. If you have a good product to sell, you need a good marketing strategy too. This world is talking about packaging ... people dont really know the product just yet, but if the packaging is to their taste, they might buy into it and then only to discover if the product is good or otherwise. I know I m good in Maths and teaching Maths. I was known before I flew off to KK, and then established myself well in KK too. Can I do it again BETTER this time?
I m doing the ground-work for the past 6 months being in SJ here. I m going into second phase of my plans. There are a lot of work but to make my plans realised, I have to keep up with the pace. Sometimes, I wonder if I over-worked as I have been not feeling so well for a week now. I dont cancel a class of even take MC. I just need to rest ...
Also, I need a blog to write all these thoughts of mine instead of using my trading blog but ... I m helpless. I m so-so tied down!! I wont have time to reply e-mails or comments here(sorry). I m mentally tired, actually.
So, I m going to take a good rest ... will off my pc till Friday, then.
No postings tmr <--- like announcing that there is no newspaper tmr. Haha.
Unwell - Matchbox Twenty ---> very nice.
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Daily Options Trading for A123 Systems (AONE)
NEW YORK (Market Intellisearch) -- AONE options saw interesting call activity today. A total of 50 put and 1,110 call contracts were traded raising a low Put/Call volume alert. Today's traded Put/Call ratio is 0.05. There were 22.20 calls traded for each put contract.
Options are useful tools for predicting the movement of the underlying stock. Put/Call ratio statistics serve as a useful predictor of investment sentiment, indicating what experienced investors are doing in preparation for a move of an underlying stock. Thus, unusual volume provides reliable clues that the stock is expected to make a move.
Shares of AONE closed at $8.96 in the previous trading session and opened today at $9.06. A123 Systems settled the day up $0.08 to $9.04 in the trading session. The day's trading range is between $8.93 and $9.28 respectively. On the volume side, 1,491,928 shares were traded which is less than the average volume of 2,612,080 shares. AONE is trading below the 50 day moving average and lower than the 200 day moving average. The stock's 52 week low is $7.50 and 52 week high is $28.20.
I remember by Madonna. Very nice music.
Madonna I'll Remember
Say good-bye to not knowing when
The truth in my whole life began
Say good-bye to not knowing how to cry
You taught me that
[Chorus (first time substitute
"strength" for "love" and
"saved" for "changed"):]
And I'll remember the love that you gave me
Now that I'm standing on my own
I'll remember the way that you changed me
Inside I was a child
That could not mend a broken wing
[ Find more Lyrics on http://mp3lyrics.org/Sx ]
Outside I looked for a way
To teach my heart to sing
I learned to let go of the
illusion that we can possess
I learned to let go, I travel in stillness
And I'll remember happiness
I'll remember (I'll remember)
Mmmmm... (I'll remember)
No I've never been afraid to cry
Now I finally have a reason why
I'll remember (I'll remember)
[repeat 3 times, substituting
"And" for "Now" the second and
9.10 am : KLCI up 2 points.
DRB moving to 1.12 now, I grabbed at 1.06 & 1.07 last week, only to clear on the same day at 1.07 to focus on my current trades.
Support is making me losing some patience, so I m clearing it at 1.54 for small profits, instead of waiting for it to jump. It has been a looong two weeks of waiting.
Muhibah : It is moving.
10.30 am : KLCI up 3 points but my counters not moving. hai-ya, so boring.
10.40 am : Zijin moving up this morning. Time to move in?
I m procasinating in many things I should be doing but delaying it for ages now!!
BLOGS : I will remember ...
1. To create my song-blog : indulge myself into that and could leave this blog temporary to enjoy the songs I loved.
2. To create a pre-U education
blog : to communicate with my students or any students all over who are doing pre-U (STPM, A-level, SAM, CPU and such) and answer their questions relating to Maths syllabus and etc etc.
3. To update and upgrade this blog ... something I find it 'lazy' to start ... let it be?
4. To have a personal blog to write about my personal thoughts regarding certain issues besides stock markets.
12.10 pm : Zijin done at HKD4.70 for 2000 units. I hope to top-up my positions if it rebounds stronger later in the week.
Steel : Angang up 6% and Oriental up 7%.
Fusahn Energy up 5%. All these are oversold for the past weeks.
12.20 pm : KLCI up 4 points. Welcome back Talam and Saag as our coolest goreng babes. Where have you both been? Those KLSE's punters missed two of you, u know. Well, we have Time, TimeCom ... or even Sinotop to play with ... with Scomi's family in fray. psstt ... where is KNM? Hmm ... are we missed all these babes when someday they 'disappear' from our hot-stock to watch list??
I have queues to clear GPacket at 0.965 and Support at 1.53&1.54. Dont know if it will be done. WHY clear? I m moving into Zijin and I m reminding myself my max quota of 4 counters. Hai-O is still a hold while looking at TopGlove and BJCorp.
3.30 pm : KLCI up 4 points, but there is a party in HKSE - many of the stocks I listed days ago shooting up 5% or more.
Forex : Postions open 1. USD/JPY at 86.678 for 10k and 2. EUR/USD at 1.29717 for 20k.
I m trying out with two open-positions with different amounts. And learning to see how it is calculated, also trying to get used to the FXCM trading platform.
EUR/USD shot above 1.3000 level moments ago, and retrace back to 1.297 level, so that is the point I m grabbing it. Watch it breaking 1.3000 tonight.
USD/JPY gaining 25 pips, and I moved in as at 86-level, it is at the low, forseeing a rebound here.
3.55 pm : Topglove at 6.89 now. Good.
6.35 pm : GPacket cleared at 0.965 for small profits, jumped to 0.980. Support failed to clear at 1.53&1.54 today. Will clear it too tmr as I m losing my patience with my funds 'stucked' there for two weeks now. Hai-O still NOT moving too.
Avril Lavigne - Innocence
Waking up I see that everything is OK
The first time in my life and now it's so great
Slowing down I look around and I am so amazed
I think about the little things that make life great
I wouldn't change a thing about it
This is the best feeling
This innocence is brilliant
I hope that it will stay
This moment is perfect
Please don't go away
I need you now
And I'll hold on to it
Don't you let it pass you by
I found a place so safe, not a single tear
The first time in my life and now it's so clear
Feel calm, I belong, I'm so happy here
It's so strong and now I let myself be sincere
I wouldn't change a thing about it
This is the best feeling
It's a state of bliss, you think you're dreaming
It's the happiness inside that you're feeling
It's so beautiful it makes you wanna cry
It's a state of bliss, you think you're dreaming
It's the happiness inside that you're feeling
It's so beautiful it makes you wanna cry
It's so beautiful it makes you wanna cry
This innocence is brilliant
Makes you wanna cry
This innocence is brilliance
Please don't go away
Cause I need you now
And I'll hold on to it
Don't you let it pass you by
9.40 pm : DOW down 120 points in early trading. A123 down 3% in the opening, at 8.77.
Monday, July 19, 2010
GPacket : Clearing at 0.97.
Hai-O : Queue to sell some at 3.80.
Support : Clearing half at 1.54.
Waiting for market to dive in the opening to grab back LionInd and Adventa. Rubber-stocks are moving. When in REDS, time to buy?
9.05 am : KLCI down 4.5 points.
9.20 am : KLCI down 5.5 points. Nothing much as the volumes are very thin. Titan and BPuri still in play.
9.50 am : KLCI down 6 points, and Jaks is moving.
EUR/USD : Position opened 1.24582, Position closed 1.28962. Profit for a week trade : USD348.
I closed my position as I m expecting markets to go lower, and a temporary rebound in USD. But, I will grab back soon as I still think EUR will move above 1.3000. Currently I have no position as I m only focusing in this pair.
USD/JPY : At 86.68 at the moment, moving to its low. Waiting for the rebound to long it. The rebound of USD, that is.
Jacky - one of the best male cantonese singer.
USD/JPY : testing it out ... long at 86.6780 opened.
11.05 am : KLCI still down by 4 points.
GT : Well, one of my reader e-mailed me to analyse JAKS for her last week, and I confirmed with her it is uptrend. It was at 0.72 level. So, I placed Jaks in my stalk-list to check on the validity of the chart I analysed. GT, did you buy Jaks? Do remember my teh-tarik next time we meet, ok? I want doughnut too. haha
張學友 - 無止境的心痛
12.40 pm : Lunch time ... KLCI closed 4.28 points lower. Hai-O at 3.70, GPacket at 0.955 and Support at 1.52.
I m watching TopGlove and LionInd. None of my queues done this morning. GPacket touched 0.970 actually but my queue not done. So, will not buy anything else as I m holding 4 counters now including A123.
7.20 pm : GPacket at 9.45, Hai-O at 3.70 ... lower and Support at 1.53 flat.
KLCI closed 3.30 points lower. STI lost 12 points and HSI lost 160 points.
USD/JPY : Up 45 pips so far, will take profits when it rebounds above 1.88. USD is in extreme low vs JPY, so the rebound is expected?
Alert : BJCorp at 1.14. Alert at this waterfall as it is still falling ... anything up will come down, anything down will go up?!
ZiJin : Dropped another 3.66% today, closed at 4.47. RSI at 22.
BYD Co : At HKD 48 now, oversold. This is a counter W.Buffett bought and making it one of the best performers in HKSE. It moved from HKD10 to HKD80 in 6 months, yes ... 8-fold your money, ok? Today, it is below HKD50 now ... time to look into it. PE at 24 now is still above the average .. wait for HKD40? Technically oversold, and waiting for lower level with BUY signal. That is when I will move in. Time to clear my non-performing Support for ZiJin or BYD?
10.15 pm : DOW opens slightly higher, with A123 rebounds, at USD9.20 now
Up 3% now, at USD 9.25. Now, it is 'difficult' to see my stocks in KLSE up/down 3% in first hour of trading, but these happen in HKSE or US where these are called global markets. KLSE??? We are much behind SGX. Tell that to SC, ya.
Sunday, July 18, 2010
Example - BYD elec : Trading at support level, and bullish divergence shown, I really like this stock at this level. So, this will be my next target this week. Noted.
Example : Royal Gold(Nasdaq) - As seen, the stock price retracing while MACD histograms in green increasing. This is called bullish divergence, which means that we expect the stock to rebound SOON. Gold prices is retracing too, so it is a VERY GOOD opportunity to grab this counter. I m just implying that I like this stock very much, technically and also playing on gold appreciation.
Note that there was a bearish engulfing black candle-stick formed last Monday(open 9.45, dropped to 8.70) but it rebounded nicely the next three days. Hence, there is still a HOPE that on Monday DOW rebounds .... otherwise, just cut it.
I will write about a few guidelines for newbies/novices what I have done or what books I read to acquire my initial knowledge. Hope that will help those newbies how I started. Bear in mind I m a 'stupid' but 'hard-working' ant who do things differently. I did it my way, as the song goes ...
Jay Chou - Rainbow. I like his songs very much.
How do I search for a Mandarin song without knowing much of chinese characters? BTW, they called Malay-ed people 'banana man'. Haha
1. I heard a nice song in the radio or anywhere in Chinese. I will try to listen to the key-word in the lyric or if I could get the DJ mentioning about the title, that is the best.
2. Next I will try to remember the pronounciations. For example : a song by Zhang Zhing Fang title ou-ren. This will make my search easier ...
3. Then, I will go to you-tube ... type in the search engine, Zhang Zhing Fang and try to make sense of it if I could not get it right(as I do not know han-yu pin yin either). Yes, then if I could find even one song related to her, there will be suggestions of songs by her or related.
4. From there, I could know her chinese characters! 張清芳 COpy paste into the search engine now ... yes, more specific and more songs by her recommended.
5. Then, I will look for TWO characters as the title is ou-ren. Short listed songs by her with only two characters ... yes, listen to each of it. Then, if it is in youtube, I will be able to find it.
6. Copy and paste the singer and song title in chinese : 張清芳 - 偶然 into sogou.com, one of the site to download chinese songs.
7. Then, look for download icon(I cant read the Chinese characters, ok?) ... yes, done. Play it ... enjoy.
I m using these steps to look for a stock - say, a good fundamental China's gold-mining stock traded in HKSE?
The Edge Billion Ringgit Club
Top Ten Companies of the year
2. Guinness Anchor
3. IJM Plantation
4. KPJ Healthcare
While Digi, Nestle, Guinness, QL are consumer-sector counters giving good dividends ,,,, QL giving us a much better price appreciation. At 4.30 level now, it has been shooting higher.
Of these ten, I never really look into IJM Plantation. To my limited knowledge, IJM is more to constructions and property-stock through IJMLand. Will read about IJM Plantation.
PPB is highly recommended by many broker houses. I wrote a little about Wilmar weeks ago when The Edge stating that Kuok exited sugar-business in Malaysia only to move into Indon. Interesting article as this give us how businessmen maneuver(how to spell arr?) and nagivate their businesses. So, Wilmar is a BUY for investors. PPB have a hold in Wilmar and will benefit from there.
KPJ ... there is an article in The Edge stating that it is lagging behind. Well, read that article and you might be interested to invest in the booming health sector in the region, and since it is lagging ... there are still ample upside room. INVEST, ok? Personally, KPJ is in my stock list but I will go for KPJ-wa instead for higher leverage play.
Mudajaya ... another stock which doing extremely well. Currently trading at Rm5(came from RM1.60, ok? That is triple your money in a year!!), still 10% lower from its peak at RM5.50 level. Please dont ask questions like : Can buy ar? Do your homework, get to know its fundamentals and yes, buying Mudajaya is certainly better than those speculative counters, ok? Someone asked about BinaPuri in yesterday's talk ... I almost puke. Uncle, buy Mudajaya ... Binapuri shot up last Friday due to news. Learn to INVEST is my humble opinion to many young ones. For the older one, avoid stock-markets, retire ... go jogging with your grandson!
Sunrise is rising ... huge development in Mt Kiara. Yes, one of the stronger property player in our country. The stock peaked at 2.60, currently at 2.20 level again. I do not look into Sunrise and it doesnot fluctuation much. I m a trader. But for investors, there are many good property-stocks STILL being depressed and will do well in 2-3 years time. Treat me my teh-tarik, I will give you one example. Haha.
Supermax ..... the winner. The company of the year. Stanley must be smiling broadly. Personally I like rubber-stocks and Supermax is one of the better fundamental stocks(besides TopGlove). It is flying higher and higher. I have traded it before. For your info, rubber stocks have been quietly gaining momentum last week and might start a rally on its on again. I m watching and might go in through Adventa, the lagging rubber-stock. Supermax or Latexx have moved and into overbought region soon. I prefer the lagging ones ... Adventa, I missed you.
For more details, do go into each individual website to download their annual reports or read more about their businesses. Then, THINK as a businessman(or businesswoman) which sector will do well and which stock among the top ten will do well. WHY? Then, TAKE ACTION ... invest in it when markets in RED. Yes, we buy our fav stocks when it moves down. It is cheaper during corrections, ok?
My liking in descending order : Supermax, KPJ, Mudajaya, PPB, QL, Sunrise, IJMPlant, Nestle, Guinness and Digi.
Note : I wonder why Tanjong or PBBank misses the top ten?
Materials for NEWBIES : How I started.
DynaQuest : For newbies, do get a copy, ok? I went through each and every companies listed in KLSE in 2008 through DynaQuest book. I never need to buy another latest one anymore. It is a real good and handy book, ok?
The Edge : Read this every week ... I done that in 2008, without fail ... and I read almost every pages, even though I do not understand much then. Today, occasionally I will still buy The Edge for reading pleasure and general information.
Books : Grab some motivational or positive thinking books .... Azizi Ali's books are interesting. I like Andrew Matthews too. We need to have the right characters and attitudes to succeed.
Books : Do buy those general MONEY book such as Money-tips, Money is my Friend etc etc. I m not promoting any books but you know what books I meant.
Books : The THIRD type of books needed is about investments related books ... I will recommend Pauline Yong's books. Simple to understand but informative. I do have Adam Khoo's book too.
So, for books ... it is in this order : motivational ---> money ---> investment.
Once you reach that level, then only think of advance to those books on commodities, ways of investing and a more specific area of investments.
Why most (9 out of 10) people in stock-markets losing money is they dont know what they are buying!! They dont have directions. They dont even bother to monitor their stocks!! When I said monitoring, I DO NOT mean look at your stock prices, ok? If you are an investor, buy a good fundamental stocks and no need to monitor daily la.
Happy investing, anyway.
Saturday, July 17, 2010
Hai-O : When I noticed it is moving into oversold region(RSI reaching 30), I placed it in my stalk list as it also shown bullish divergence. With so many greens, it is waiting for a buy signal. Last Wed, it shot up and I started to grab at 3.73-3.76 levels. But, it moved lower the next day so I keep buying(500 units each time). I did wrote about it, I think. Friday ... another green, bullish crossover will be seen soon. So, there is a HOPE that it will jump soon. So, I bought it as it is 1. a Good stock forming a waterfall 2. Bullish divergence 3. It was trading at its support at 3.64. On Monday, with KLCI expecting to move lower(unless Malaysia-boleh supporting KLCI) taking cue from DOW yesterday's plunge, I do not expect it to jump up on Monday. But, there are high chances it will continue to move higher once buying increases.
Support : I started to buy the next day when I spotted the 1st green. It was at 1.53, 1.51 and 1.50. Then, I bought more the next day at 1.50 and 1.49. I dont really know my average as i did not calculate. So, I m still waiting for a jump up!! Then, I will take half profits at 1.64 and ride on the others. Now, with DOW closed 260 points lower, I dont think so many stocks will jump up. So, it is unlike on Monday .... but see if there is a rebound on Monday night??
Reasons of buying : REDS histrograms shown below zero-line with the heights increase until a green seen. It has been green since then. I m holding on it for one week plus now. It only touched a high at 1.56, which is it current resistance. Need to break 1.56 convincingly for me to take profit. It WILL move up, unless KLCI starts to dive .... ?
GPacket : Entry at 0.940 and 0.945. Added yesterday at 0.935, queue at 0.93 not done. Chart wise, all my arrows showing up. Good so far. But again, on Monday with KLSE in REDS, GPacket may see some selling pressure and go into reds too. So, I m ready to queue at 0.93 or below. Otherwise, hold till reversal or at its resistance seen at RM1.00. Wait.
Reasons for buying : Again, I m training myself to use MACD. So, when spotted the first green ... it is like. That it. MOVE IN. Just do it. I have swing trade on this counter successfully twice recently but at both time, I took profits too early!! Another reason might be the CN's forum, the trainer was alerting us to wait for a green histogram. Bingo!