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Saturday, February 27, 2010

1.30 am : DOW not moving much ... uncertainties ...

Warrants that I like : baby/mommy/premium/expiry

1. AnnJoo-wb : 0.76/2.80/16.43%/2013
2. BRDB-wa : 0.74/1.84/0%/2012
3. Fajar-wa : 0.555/1.11/(4.95%)/2013
4. GPacket-wa
5. IJM-wc
6. IJMLand-wa
7. Sunway-wc
8. continue tmr

1.25 pm : Not going back to KK this weekend as I m busy shifting. I m still looking for the 3rd warrant to buy(besides AnnJoo-wb and GPacket-wa). So, I m thinking of WCT-wb or SPSetia-wb. Flip the coin, then.

TEH

Friday, February 26, 2010

DOW down 50 points. GenS going below SGD0.90. From the high of 1.30 to 0.90? How about Genting? Will it go to RM6 for me to collect?

So Cold - Crossfade



I heard this 'old' hits being played yesterday when I was having dinner at PJ Oldtown. I have been so busy that I couldnt hear any music playing inside me these days. The noises drowning me too. I hope to spend a few hours of this weekend listening to songs!!

I dont see going into markets as 'playing' shares. In fact, I dislike it when people 'playing' stocks markets like ... playing a pc game or playing guli? Somehow, if it is as easy as playing my pc games, I will be glad. It is fun, exciting and addictive!! And with a click of buttons, I could re-start and act as if NOTHING happens!! Hmm ... We could do that with 'stock markets' too ... just that it involves losing REAL money. Losing half of our stakes. And feeling numb with the pain.

WCT-wb : This is becoming attractive, technically. It closed at 0.50. So, I might start to queue at 0.48 or so. Hopefully I m patient enough.

Demand and Supply

Tho I know nothing about Economics, I must know this term well - Demand and Supply - as prices of the stocks or any items in fact, very much depends on that. If it is a rainy season, very few fishermen willing to risk their lives in sea ... the seafood prices certainly rocketed. Are we willing to pay higher price for the items? Or will only buy it when it is cheaper(after the raining season and the stocks for that particular item is huge?).

I m one person willing to wait ... or even wont mind NOT having it. Nothing is important or significant that I MUST have. Nothing. certainly NOT items that could be bought with money. So, I will wait ... but somehow, I wish I could apply such 'patience' when I m in markets.

When the demands are high, the price will definitely going higher as many bidding for it. Are you willing to pay? Or will you be looking somewhere else for a 'cheaper' priced item(as the demand is not there yet)? That explain a little of my mentality when I trade. When the demands are high, I m more than willing to SELL. Normally it goes higher before the correction.

So, naturally I will be thinking ... what are the stocks that overly-sold and with low demands? GPacket is one of them. I m NOT saying I like GPacket business models or even remember how much losses they are reporting. I m talking about trading ... it is overly-sold and the selling-volume decreases. Looking at mommy supported well at 1.09, I have no idea when it will shoot higher when the buyers are back. That was in my mind yesterday when I started to grab GPacket-wa, after releasing Efficient in the morning.

Markets normally over-react as the prices pushed higher or lower due to HUMAN's behaviours. That related with the demand-supply kinda thing. Is rubber-gloves and related items OVERly supplied at the moment? They are working around the clock to meet the high demands and the results shown in the profits registered in rubber companies. The price of raw-rubber is at the high level ... but the PE of most rubber-stocks are not overly stretched YET. The demands are still very high and expected to be higher!!

1.30 pm : China-auto rallying this morning. Geely up 8% today and at 3.90 now. I will look to sell if it goes above HKD4+ soon. Otherwise, it is a buy-n-hold to me. CWP at 0.84 and at 1.00 is a sell for me.

11.10 pm : US's DOW down 30 points, CROX (selling those overly expensive sandals and slippers - ridiculously stupid humans buying RM100+ for a slipper?) down 13% as CEO stepping down?

Talking about CEO stepping down, I prefer to write about Bridget Lai. No disclosure of the investigation but the iron-lady stepping down is a surprise. What will happen to AFG stocks now? Who will be taking over? In fact, AFG has been overly bought and jumped from 2.40 to 2.80 level now.


TEH

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Down 100 points, up 100 points the next day. DOW is not going anywhere at the moment ... another leg up or down - your guess please?

I m still very much inside the markets and at this point of time, I want OUT. But, I need to hold on a while to see whichever gain me 10%-20% profits or reaching my target(s) to SELL. Another 10 cents up for Adventa or LionInd will see me selling most of my holdings in these two babes. Efficient is reaching my target point(average of 0.19) at 0.22 soon. These are three in mind to clear for some profits and will like to collect more of Genting or Geely.

Gadang and Muhibah are still highly in my stalk list, once I cleared those for profits, I will grab some of Gadang or Muhibah, whichever lower.

GPacket(and wa) and Redtone are another two I m eyeing. I think I will go for GPacket.

9.55 am : Efficient done at 0.225, slightly above my target price of 0.22. It reached 0.23, actually. I cleared all without a regret and WILL buy into it again when it reaches 0.20 level again. Good trade to cover my losses in some others.

11.20 am : KLCI up 3 points. Transmile into PN17. Terrible. And Efficient at 0.235 now. Wow ... selling early again, I was glad to clear it at 0.225 just now but now I wonder WHY I cleared it early. I dont have the time to watch/monitor ... so, I m buying at my target prices and selling at my target prices too.

12.50 pm : In the rush again ... peeping at KLCI up 3.71 points, nothing else done.

3.10 pm : KLCI up 4 points plus. JobStreet up so much higher in 4 trading days. JobStreet is never in my stalk list but I saw it up 12.5% today itself, breaking 1.80 now. Anything up so HIGH and FAST is recommended to SELL. Good choice, Wai.

4.20 pm : Axiata pulled up KLCI. Axiata up 7% after reported huge profits, KLCI up 5points. Maxis and CIMB continue to find investors moving to have a piece of them.

Bought some(5k units only as first stage) GPacket-wa at 0.535.

Anyway, time to run again.


TEH

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

DOW down by 100 points. KLCI might go into reds again today as I m wearing red.

Actually I have many things in my mind to write about(markets and financial aspects, I mean) but I simply could not get the thoughts together to write a paragraph!! I m simply too busy, always on the move and new things coming to mind. It is clustered, jammed and dis-organised. I do hope by June I could be more settled and could enjoy a little time by myself reading some good articles or books. I missed so many things I hv been doing in KK. Perhaps, I missed trading too.

9.05 am : KLCI up 3points in the opening. GPacket and Genting in RED ...

4.10 pm : Efficient at 0.215, queueing to clear at 0.22.

5.00 pm : KLCI closed higher, up by 4.35 points.

Transmile : It lost 50% today, something is causing this dive by I didnt read much to know the going-on. Will check it out this weekend. Transmile WAS KLSE's babe for years till the accounting 'scandals' exposed and it will never recover. Those investors who STILL HOLDING to this stock could be 'in pain' but in denial ... as it is just 'paper-loss'. I knew the feeling well as I WAS(and at times, STILL) in such a 'trap' before.

It also reminds me of LCL, which used to be the darling of KLSE. I was NOT in KLSE yet when LCL flirting with many investors in KLSE but I read about it and look into its historical charts. LCL will never recover soon ... and I doubt it will ever reach, say RM1? No one could place the price of the stocks as the prices do not actually reflect the valuation of a company.


Herd Mentality : Monkey See, Monkey Do

1. Start with a cage containing five apes. In the cage, hang a banana on a string and put stairs under it. Before long, an ape will go to the stairs and start to climb towards the banana.

2. As soon as the ape touches the stairs, spray all the apes with cold water. After a while, another ape makes an attempt with the same result - all the apes are sprayed with cold water.

3. Turn off the cold water. If, later, another ape tries to climb the stairs, the other apes will try to prevent it even though no water sprays them.

4. Now remove one ape from the cage and replace it with a new one. The new ape sees the banana and wants to climb the stairs. To his horror, all of the apes attack him. After another attempt and attack, he knows that if he tries to climb the stairs he will be assaulted.

5. Next, remove another of the original five apes and replace it with a new one. The newcomer goes to the stairs and is attacked. The former newcomer now takes part in the punishment with enthusiasm.

6. Again, replace a third original ape with a new one. The new one makes it to the stairs and is attacked as well. Two of the four apes that beat him have no idea why they were not permitted to climb the stairs or why they are participating in the beating of the newest ape.

7. After replacing the fourth and fifth original apes, all the apes which have been sprayed with cold water have been replaced.

Nevertheless, no ape ever again approaches the stairs. Why not?

BECAUSE, that’s the way it’s always been done around here.

I like the above 'experiement' on the monkeys as it reminds me of HUMAN, they act like those monkeys.

TEH

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Nothing comes to mind this morning ... so nothing to write or even monitoring. Busy, anyway.

11.05 am : I dont know why I m stressed-out teaching a batch of so-called good Maths students. It is like having a good-fundamental stock but seeing it in reds and going lower each day. You started to wonder WHY ... and doubt their fundamentals. These kids is OK in Maths, not extremely good(one a few of them are really good). And the noises came from those who THOUGHT they are good but they actually are not. I was upset with these boys and made a bad remark. Sigh ... seriously, they can improve and do very well under me as I could teach them the finer points in Maths. Guess most of us like to carry ourselves highly. We pretend to be 'good'.

KLCI down by 1.77 points. Surprisingly, crude oil continues to climb and traded above USD80 now. Dont really think this is sustainable.

The Great Depression - I was at KLCC, Kinokuniya, and wanted to buy this nice book for reading but I know I wont hv the time. Yes, I do spend(invest) in books and read as much as I could. Currently, I m too busy. This book is worth the RM60+. It is FORECASTING the coming depression ... expected around this coming summer.

4.05 pm : I m tired. So is KLCI. Except for Efficient which I might sell some(been collecting at 0.18-0.20), others not reaching my targets yet. Adventa edging higher, at 3.58(breached 3.60 level in the morning) now. Will sell Adventa and LionInd in stages too.

MAS is flying today, at 2.06 now. I did not buy more at 1.80.

4.35 pm : MAS at 2.13 now ... at what price will I want to clear it? Well ... buy and hold?

8.35 pm : Dinner at A&W PJ. KLCI upchanged.

MAS reminded me of IGB ... was stalking her at 1.90 level, waiting for 1.80 and below - too busy - did not catch it as 1.9- as planned ... and days later, seeing it flying off!! That was IGB to me months ago too, kinda deja-vu.

Well, I was distracted by Genting and hopefully I wont let Genting flies off my grip. If I cant wait, then I might just grab it at 6.30(planning 6.10). Noted.

I m eyeing GPacket(wa) or RedTone. Simply greedy ... wish I have the bullets. The rebound might be short, so I might as well think of taking profits and slowly releasing my holdings soon?

TEH

Monday, February 22, 2010

Monday morning ... back to such hectic days thru out the week. Yeah, I no longer read or even think much about markets as during weekends I will be busy too. When will I be able to sit down to pause? Anyway, KNM, MAS and Genting were playing in my mind, with different stories/news. JAL was traded at 1 YEN before de-listed. Will MAS trading at 1 CENT before de-listed? Hmm ...

I will like to see some positive news this week to push some of my holdings higher, hoping to clear some. At the moment, Genting is in my mind to BUY.

Due Diligence : I want to understand this term this week, which I read about KNM.

11.05 am : KLCI up 6 points. Adventa at 3.53 but Genting is not moving anywhere yet.

12.15 pm : KLCI up 7 points. AMMB reaching RM5 level again from Rm4.60.

7.40 pm : Done with my class but raining heavily in KLCC here. Stranded. Sigh.

Checking on my portfolios, Efficient is doing well today. Rubber stocks are doing well today with many registered about 5% upside today. Adventa at 3.54. I will only sell around 3.80? Wait and see ... I will see Efficient at 0.22 level(for your info, Wai).


TEH

Sunday, February 21, 2010

Behavioural Finance

I m re-reading the book FEAR & GREED by Pauline Yong and I will highly recommend any novice or those new to market(like me) persons to read such books. I like the term "Behavourial Finance" as it is indeed the FACT about market valuations or stock prices movements.

For example : How much will you value KNM? At 0.90 or higher? Or lower? At 0.80 level now, MANY still 'stuck' at rm1 and above. So, these investors will psychologically FINDING reasons on WHY KNM should be valued higher ... in order to match their predictions or values. They might claim that O&G sector will recover in coming years, and it is a matter of TIME KNM back to ... say, RM1.50? Hence, these valuations are based on investors behaviours. If an investor bought KNM at RM1, and hold on to it till this moment ... he will certainly believe KNM should be valued higher and will go up to its 'fair value'. Whether it is based on some broker's reports or some analysts, he MADE himself to believe that RM1.50 is only fair for KNM.

Here, if a person bought at RM1, and also strong believe in its fundamentals, with the recovery of global economies ... at 0.80 is a STRONG buy, right? I m speaking about those investors who bought and still holding. He/she will not sell till KNM at RM1.50 due to his/her beliefs. Time and time again, we will see those 'target prices' changed. We might read contradicting views on a stock, take KNM for example. Buy or sell ... it is a constant call. Analysts need to write something as they are WORKING.

At 0.90, will you think that is "fair"? I m just giving an example and taking KNM as it is one of the most actively traded stocks(which I DO NOT understand why ... until I believed there are syndicates speculating on KLSE's stocks).

I remember INTI(I worked with INTI group for 5 years) before they are taken private by an US-based. It was value RM1.20. It came up from 0.50 to 0.80 to 1.20 as the date approaches. Those accumulating at 0.50 could hv doubled their values. I was NOT in market yet but started to monitor a few counters. INTI happened to be one as I was one of their employees. Many of my INTI colleagues bought INTI stocks above RM2(thru ESOS) and as many know nothing much about stock-markets did not buy INTI at 0.50 level. IF I was what I m today, I will hint many of my friends there to BUY INTI. I will buy it myself for keeping and happily selling my holdings at Rm1.20. Being an employee, we do know the so-called insider stories. The moves were obvious and the stock prices kept rising to the 'fair-value' of RM1.20.

Back to KNM, if I m holding to KNM stocks and bought lower than 0.80 level, will I sell? I should not ... I shall wait for 0.90, right? How about those holding above RM1 level? Should they buy more at 0.80 and forced to sell at 0.90? Think .. will KNM's deal done as INTI has? Hey, it is RM3.6b ... billions, ok? Many are skeptical(i m one of them) that this deal will go through. It is plain common sense. Then, why would Lee made such statements publicly?

This is how 'behavioural' finance being applied. You and me valuing KNM at different levels, different views and different of anything related to KNM. How they came out with 0.90 is everyone's guess as they value it at THEIR point of views. If I m not mistaken, I read a broker reports placing a buy, with target at Rm1.20. What do you think now?

IF I believe the deal will be through and CERTAINLY it will be at 0.90, I will BUY ALL I have at 0.80(or should have bought it at 0.73 level then) ... waiting for my huge 'angpow'. Hehe. IF ... IF ... what IF ... that is influenced by our behavours.

Saturday, February 20, 2010


DOW is flat again ... crude oil going back to USD80 and Gold at 1120 level. Soros doubling his holding of gold-ETF.

Genting at 6.36 and GenM at 2.67. For a person who sold Genting at 7.70 and GenM at 2.90 recently, the current price is a huge discount. While I bought back Genting at 6.80, I m still looking at GenM too. Since I hv limited funds, I might go for Genting, which is more volatile. I am looking at its support at around RM6 to collect another 1k unit. While I do like GenM and GenS at current level, if the selling pressure persists, they might go lower. Genting at RM6 is possible, then. Current RSI at 23, grossly over-sold. The spike of volume yesterday showing many are 'throwing' away their holding ... creating a sharp waterfall. Are you holding Genting at RM6.80 like me and scared now? BUY when you are in fear, right? I might even buy before it reaches RM6 ... say, minus 10% from my purchase price, at RM6.10 and will greedily buy more if RSI going below 20? Anyway, any BAD news about Genting or what? Will read more on these later.

TEH
p/s : Vincent Lee, i wanted to leave a comment on your blog but I dont know how. I could not find a chat-box too. e-mail? Too lazy. But, I will cut-n-paste your posting so that I could comment it here, can I? Hehe

Friday, February 19, 2010

DOW up another 80 points with crude oil at USD79. Another green-day expected? Guess I will be too busy again ...

10.15 am : KLCI down slightly. Genting in RED and GenM also moving lower. I will buy more of Genting ... wait.

Efficient is at 0.19 ... queueing at 0.18.

GenS touched a low of 0.90 just now. The casino story is over ... it has shot up from 0.80 to 1.30 level, anticipating the opening of the RW casino. I hope I will be free for a nice vacation there by end of the year. I do not gamble, I never been into even Genting's casino(believe it or not!!) but I guess I will take a peep on Singapore's Genting. Time to BUY GenS? I m looking into it.

2.35 pm : Genting at 6.36, and KLCI down by 2 points -more reds than greens. As I have sold Genting at 7.70(bought at 7.20 ... I still wonder if my friend sold off hers), and bought it back at 6.80, at current price it is "CHEAP"? I shall wait to buy another 1k units, perhaps at RM6 or below?

As many in my stalk-list reaching at my purchasing price, I do not have much bullets to shoot. Looking at Scomi at 0.40, Muhibah at 0.90 or GPacket at 1.10? Just last month, I was thinking that my target prices were TOO LOW? Hmmm ... how fast things changed.

3.25 pm : Ok, decided to BUY Genting at RM6 or below, while clearing some LionInd and Adventa soon (wait for next green-day) for it.

Most of the HKSE's counters in my list(of 60+) are in red today. Faber said China stocks will go much lower, looking at the risks. So, no buying yet ... and collecting bullets this coming months will be a good strategy.

4.15 pm : Home ... need to rest. Efficient queueing at 0.18 not done, but it is at 0.185 now.

AnnJoo-wb : I sold half at 0.80 days ago, it shot higher to 0.83 but today it continues to retrace to 0.745 now. I will be buying at 0.69 again ... still targetting o.90 level. My queues to sell at 0.88 yesterday not done.

SPSetia-wb : Long time I didnt check on this one which my friend bought at 0.525 but did not release at 0.60 as I mentioned here. Today, it is back to 0.48 and back to my radar to collect. Oh boy ... I wish these babes dont come at one time. Wait till I release some babes, then I will be glad to have this one.

My mistake last week was to release of Supermax and grabbed Adventa. Tho Adventa at 3.10 and 3.30 were 'good' entry point, Supermax is doing better. So, thinking of Adventa is 'smaller' in price and will give me higher % gain is NOT a correct mentality. Of coz I wish I have more bullets, but I m OVER-diversifying. I m still keeping some bullets to shoot Adventa at RM2.80. Now, I was greedy days ago ... not to release Adventa at 3.60 where it gave me more than 10% profits.

4.40 pm : Efficient done at 0.18.

MAS : At 1.80 ... some bad news reported. Good for buying ... I might grabbed at 1.80 below? I was tracking it at 1.90 last week, and this piece of bad news is needed to push it lower = cheaper?

Muhibah and Gadang : At 0.930 level, I will like to see 0.90 now. Which one will reach 0.90 first?

GPacket : At 1.10, it was my target price to BUY last week ... but, I guess I have to wait till RM1 level or whenever I hv some cash to shoot on this one. SHOOT = PUNT = BET = GUESS = GAMBLE. Hehe. Perhaps I will go for its baby, instead. Buy, then pray ... then hold ... and pray again. Otherwise, hold 'forever'.

TEH

Thursday, February 18, 2010

6.05 am : DOW up about 50 points ... we might be seeing a positive KLCI again today. I m off to office soon.

12.30 pm : KLCI up 2 points, with AnnJoo, Adventa and LionInd taking a rest today but Supermax still moving higher. GenS going below SGD1 today. How is the opening of the casino?

3.05 pm : KLCI unchanged. Genting back into reds.

GPacket-wa is worth looking into. This babe will be 'goreng'ed up highly once the 'players' play on some news.

9.35 pm : Too tired now. KLCI down 0.07 ... James Bond.


TEH
Jay Chou - Qi Li Xiang



I really like his songs and he is very talented. Unfortunately, in this PRODUCTion world these days, qualities being negotiated in order to PRODUCE.

12.35 am : DOW up slightly. Time to rest.

TEH

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Dear Investors,

Investor excitement is still building.

They've convinced themselves the Dow will resume its march ahead and top 11,000 before year's end.

Thousands of investors desperately hope it's not too late to get in. So, here's what you can do:

STOP!

Because if you're in stocks right now, you're like a sitting duck on a quiet pond. Sure, the calm water makes you think you're safe...

But, you have no idea what's lurking just under the water's surface, or what's taking aim at you from shore.

For investors, it's almost as bad. Their dangers, however, come in the form of "inconvenient truths" like these, recently taken from the pages of The Wall Street Journal.

Fact: The last time we had a rally of this magnitude was in 1930, at the beginning of the Great Depression. The stock market skyrocketed up 48%... Then plunged a disastrous 86%!

For the rest of the depression, stocks whipsawed up and down through investor's accounts with sharp gains and sharper declines! Much like what's around the corner now...

Fact: A similar style rally of 45% chugged through the recession in 1974 -- then ran out of steam, stranding hopeful stockholders, leaving them bitter with unfulfilled hopes. So...


Know This:

As you may realize, those who don't learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat its mistakes. Especially when we look at the current financial landscape...

Fact: Unemployment continues to hover at around 10%, but the threat of an increase continues to loom month after month.

Fact: Home foreclosures are soaring to new highs every month

Fact: Commercial foreclosures are ramping up to the same rates as residential -- and many of these companies are listed on the NYSE -- which will cause stocks to tumble

Fact: For too many business profits have not risen... so price to earnings are out-of-whack

Fact: We had 95 bank failures in 2009 -- actually MORE than 2008!

Fact: GDP has not shown consistent growth -- so there's no economic reason for the market to be at these unsustainable levels...

So when history repeats itself, the reckoning will be harsh. Which is actually good news to my readers, because...

"The Looming 30% Drop in The Market could Mean Even Bigger Profits for You!"

By Doug Fabian ---- more of the author --- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doug_Fabian


Dear Fellow Investor:

Are you reassured by the recent stock market rally?

With all due respect, don't believe the numbers.

No, I don't mean to suggest the data are deliberately false... they're just an illusion.

But first, I want to be clear. I'm not a gloom-and-doom guy. You don't earn more than three decades of double-digit returns for your investors with a negative attitude.

My name is Doug Fabian. I write Successful Investing, a newsletter that's been helping loyal, satisfied investors grow and protect their wealth for 32 years.

I try to keep politics out of my advisory reports and alerts. But recent developments make keeping silent impossible, indeed, unthinkable.

What was essentially a banking/credit crisis has been mismanaged into a full-blown, fundamentals-driven, economic disaster.

But the big shock looms just over the horizon -- certainly by year's end.

Please take a second to read the six, cold, hard truths listed below.

Knowing them could save your portfolio in the coming turbulent months. Regrettably, most financial managers and fund managers would rather swallow glass than reveal this information to you. It's not in their interest to warn you.

However, I consider it my obligation: 1. The current stock market rally is a false rally, a mirage.
2. This economy is far, far, worse off than most Americans realize. Fact is, we're now in the early stages of a depression. Period.
3. The next stock market will be a bear... a snarling, bloodthirsty "grizzly."
4. The so-called "economic stimulus" is not a stimulus... it's an anti-stimulus.
5. Our next investing threat isn't hyperinflation – it's hyperdeflation.
6. The worst is over? Wrong. Mutual funds face another massive redemption panic... possibly worse than the sell-off of 2008.
Forgive me for not jumping on the recovery bandwagon.
I'm just not buying it.

Nor should you. Not unless you want to risk watching your portfolio, 401(k), or IRA hemorrhage AGAIN like it did in 2008.

However, in just a few moments, I will show you a clearheaded, common sense strategy that will guide you through the coming storm... and safely to the new market entry point and the historic 200% to 300% gains that lie beyond it.

It's an entry point as powerful a launching pad to growth as were the years 1974, 1983, and 1994. You do not want to miss it... as millions of others will. I'll tell you exactly when to dive back in.

But first, you must avoid the coming market meltdown...

When I knew...

The moment politicians floated the "necessity" of another mammoth stimulus package on top of the current mammoth stimulus package...

... I knew what was coming.

The financial catastrophe is going to happen to investors all over again.

As 2010 bleeds on, the average portfolio and 401(k) will plunge again by 20% or more.

Millions of investors, including seniors on fixed incomes, will go through the financial and emotional wringer for a second time.

But not my Successful Investing subscribers.

I warned my readers in January 2008 with a clear-cut, unambiguous alert stating, "Get out of stocks and mutual funds now!"

Later, in September of 2008, when financial advisors and media pundits were reassuring investors the worst was over, I issued another alert -- "We could see another 10-15% decline in the overall market between now and the election in November."

Truly, I hoped I was wrong for the sake of the country.

As it turned out, I came awfully close to predicting what happened next -- a 15.7% decline on top of the existing catastrophe.

My subscribers are certainly glad they heeded my advice, as I found out from their letters after the debacle:

I wish I could assure you the big stock market sell-offs are behind us now, but...

Here we go again...

I have no choice but to alert my subscribers yet again -- and you, too, this time -- of a new impending disaster... quite likely as great as the 2008 market collapse.

I can almost hear you thinking...

Can he be right... again?

Fair question.

So, it bears repeating: my Successful Investing subscribers were warned about the approaching market meltdown of 2008, so they could literally pull their portfolios from the brink of the biggest crash since 1929.

What's more, my readers knew the meaning of terms like "housing bubble" and "sub-prime" long before they became headline news and the source of financial misery for millions.

This is what I wrote in 2006, nearly two years before the crash:

"Pay little heed to the real estate industry's PR campaign to play down the coming housing price slump. It's happening. The bottom is falling out for many banks, investors, and homeowners right now."

But my investing service does much more than just sound alarms about getting out of the market. (Don't forget those coming 200% to 300% gains I'm alerting my subscribers about right now.)

Our Successful Investing system makes money -- in good times and bad. How do 32 years of double-digit returns (and counting) for investors sound to you? No brag, just fact.

But, as the expression goes, "that was then, this is now."

More critically, a "now" in which we're heading for a second market meltdown that will drain the portfolios and crush the dreams of unprepared investors.

But isn't the "economic stimulus"
supposed to stimulate the economy?

Yes. Absolutely. Wall Street fat-cats, politicians, and many media pundits say so.

Believe them at your financial peril.

And excuse me if I don't throw money at the stock market.

Here's why.

It's now crystal clear to me that our government is NO LONGER fighting this recession in conventional ways. Not by a long shot.

It's also crystal clear that many of the most powerful movers in government understand little about the basic fundamentals of economics.

What we're witnessing in these historic times is a popular young president with extraordinary charisma whose intent is to usher in the most dramatic financial reordering of America since FDR and the New Deal.

Think of it. The administration's goal is to accomplish something that's never been executed SUCCESSFULLY in our nation's history: stimulate a badly depressed economy by government spending, spending, and more spending.

And they want it done in a matter of months.

Plus, the government is going to "spread the wealth around," too.

What wealth?
The government is broke.

Here again, it's important that you put your personal feelings and politics aside. It's absolutely vital to your financial future that you do so.

It doesn't matter whether you support Obama or not. He's in charge. He has sweeping majorities in the House and Senate. He's a truly gifted orator, a political force who knows how to get what he wants.

His intentions, as he says, may be for the greater good. But the results of his policies will be catastrophic.

What do I mean by catastrophic?

I'll say it one more time...

Brace yourself for another market crash with a massive redemption of mutual funds on the order of 2008. Can your portfolio take another beating like that?

Why the stimulus is
really an "anti-stimulus."

You may have noticed. The stimulus hasn't done much stimulating... except in all the wrong places.

First of all, it's not even an economic stimulus -- it's political sleight of hand.

Sixty percent of the money was ear-marked for individuals in the form of temporary tax rebates. The rebates went. No one spent. The rebates failed.

History shows Americans spend very little of a temporary tax rebate. Why?

Because they know it's temporary.

Billions more stimulus dollars are on their way to state governments.

Yes, the same profligate, tax-loving, deficit-compounding state bureaucrats who have done such marvelous work in near-bankrupt California, Michigan, Illinois, and New York. Think they'll reduce spending and waste while the government keeps bailing them out?

There's only one thing the stimulus is stimulating -- the growth of government.

Then there's the pure pork.

I mean that literally. To date, the stimulus program has shelled out $19 million to purchase canned pork. At least it's for feeding the poor.

Most of the rest is "regular" political pork, money showered on favored political constituencies and fashionable causes.

There's also $200 million to refurbish the National Mall. $650 million for the Forest Service. $16 million is headed to save the San Francisco Bay area habitat of the endangered salt marsh harvest mouse. And so on.

Somehow, such ridiculous expenditures are regarded by Congress as "economic stimulus."

You get the point. The stimulus is a failure.

That's what makes what big-spending politicians want next so shocking, so outrageous, so downright arrogant, it takes your breath away.

Greedy politicians
want more of the same!

They're calling for "another stimulus" -- and they want it fast.

With 2009's budget deficit towering over $1.6 trillion -- and looming larger in 2010...

With paychecks disappearing, unemployment around 10 percent and looking to stay there...

With the average length of joblessness at its longest stretch since records were kept...

With people losing homes to foreclosure in record numbers...

With desperate companies begging workers to take pay cuts or unpaid leave...

With empty shopping malls...

With consumers hanging on to what precious money they still have...

With home prices plunging, the building industry in paralysis, and a commercial real estate crisis looming...

With small business (traditionally where recovery starts) being strangled...

In short, with 7.2 million jobs lost, and the most severe economic downturn since The Great Depression worsening, the government wants to:

•Slam taxpayers with tax increases that would push U.S. tax rates even higher than most of Europe. To put that in contrast, Sweden will soon look like a tax-haven compared to the U.S.

•Enact a gargantuan, $1 trillion-plus government health entitlement that will demolish private insurance, and eventually make your doctor an employee of those wonderful folks who gave you the U.S. Postal Service, the Department of Motor Vehicles, and Fannie and Freddie.
•Impose an environmental leap of faith -- a dubious "cap-and-trade," carbon-emissions bill that will cripple the competitiveness of U.S. businesses worldwide. Do you think China, India, Russia, and the rest of the developing world will join us in committing economic suicide? Not a prayer. But your job could be "shipped" to a country that has no carbon penalties.
•Dump new taxes on private health-care plans -- making it virtually impossible for private plans to compete with the government plan, which will benefit from subsidies and lower capital costs. (This is a perfect illustration of how bureaucrats deal with competition -- they eliminate it.)
•For the icing on this "toxic economic cake," the Bush tax cuts (which helped the markets to recover after 9/11) will be allowed to expire in 2010. Presto. Automatic tax hikes!
•Hang on -- not done yet! The President also wants to raise taxes on capital gains and dividends from 15% to 20%. Not only will this have a depressing effect on investing in general, but seniors and income investors will have to kiss a hefty chunk of their living-expense money goodbye.
It truly boggles the mind how our own leaders are seemingly doing everything they can to strangle any hope of economic recovery.

I've been throwing a lot of numbers at you. But, as an investor, there's really only one number you need right now...

1-800-GET OUT NOW!

If you escaped the 2008 crash with less than the "20%-40% wallop in the gut" most investors absorbed, I congratulate you.

But you'll have to pull the same "Houdini act" all over again.

The stock market is headed for another major sell-off and mutual fund redemption bloodbath by year's end -- taking the gains of the 2009 "false rally" down the chute with it.

When that happens, a very chastened nation will be left behind in the rubble of a second crash... only then will the government take some real steps to bolster the economy.

At that point, with the market possibly below the bottom of March 2009, we'll find the new market entry point.

We'll also find something else.

When the new market bottom is struck, expect the cry to ring out from the Magellans and Vanguards of Wall Street: "Time to get back into mutual funds!"

I strongly urge you...

Do not heed this siren call

If you remember nothing else from this letter, please remember this: The era of mutual funds is over.

I say that not just because mutual funds played such a key role in the ruination of so many IRAs and 401(k)s last year -- but because mutual funds will nose-dive all over again in the coming market meltdown replay.

When you look behind the numbers, 2008 was not so surprising after all.

Indeed, mutual funds have been a poor choice for investing your money for many years.

It may come as a surprise that I'm telling you all this as a former mutual fund "believer." My strategies in Successful Investing have helped thousands of investors become wealthier with mutual funds for many years.

So, why in the world would I, after all these years of happily and profitably advocating mutual funds, turn away from them now? Here's why.

They don't pay off like
they used to. Period.

According to the mutual fund industry's own Investment Company Institute, investors lost nearly $3.7 trillion in mutual funds in 2008.

But that's just one catastrophic year, you say?

Look again.

•Mutual funds haven't been producing since the early 1990s. During those glorious market years of the mid-90s, nearly 90% of all mutual funds underperformed the market. Things are no better for funds today. Over 95% of actively managed mutual funds underperform their benchmark -- by that I mean the index they are compared to, such as small cap, value stocks, health, energy, commodities, etc.
•Most people think they know what's in their mutual funds. Most don't. Certainly, many investors in the (formerly) huge Legg-Mason Value Trust Fund would not have agreed with the manager's rash decision to make a massive bet on financial stocks just before the Crash of 2008. But they probably didn't know. That's just one such case among thousands.
•Few investors realize all the fees charged by funds. No surprise, really. Most funds are cagey about these charges and tend to bury them deep in the fine print. These fees are profit-killers, to be sure.
•And then there's the rule that forces your fund manager to stay in stocks, even when they're falling. Most investors are unaware this rule exists. They paid a dear price when their fund managers were chained to stocks as they plunged to the bottom last year.
In a nutshell, mutual funds have outlived their day. There was a time when funds looked out for their investors, their customers. Not so much in this hyper-competitive era with thousands of funds. Now they're primarily after their own profit -- which is not against the law, but not necessarily in your best interests.

So now what?

How about casting off those "chains" and saying goodbye to stocks, mutual funds, and buy-and-hold -- and trying a different strategy...

... a proven, all-markets strategy that has returned an average of double-digit gains for over three decades -- and counting?

The Fabian Plan has quite a track record over those 32 years, soundly beating the market by delivering a whopping 11.32% annually.

Our plan works on a simple common-sense strategy that has guided our subscribers safely through just about every nasty shock the market can throw at us -- the stunning Crash of 1987, the spectacular Tech/Internet Bubble of the 1990s and, of course, the scary, portfolio-annihilating Sub-Prime Collapse of 2008.

There are two parts to the Fabian Plan:

•PROTECT your principal when danger looms. (And don't you wish someone had been looking out for you in 2008?)
•SEIZE opportunities for profit when they suddenly appear -- but without using mutual funds or stocks.
I know. I know. Many in the media are proclaiming that the stimulus worked, the worst is over, and a new bull market is under way.

Don't believe it.

Sooner than you can imagine, investors staggered by the Crash of 2008 (especially those approaching retirement) are going to be asking -- "How could this happen to me again?"

Well, I not only see this coming -- my subscribers and I are officially OUT of the mutual fund market.

That's right. I've strongly urged my readers to shift away from mutual funds immediately and move into Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) without delay. I'm even showing 401(k) investors a specially designed roll-over strategy for getting their money into ETFs.

What's so special about ETFs?

For openers, when you own ETFs, you own a basket of stocks or bonds comprising the key benchmark indexes – large cap stocks, small cap stocks, technology, staples, gold, silver, real estate, whole countries -- virtually every sector imaginable. This gives you a wide range of diverse investing opportunities.

(For example, there are several sectors that will actually boom because of the government's historically unprecedented spending. More on them later.)

Important to remember is that ETFs are very different from sector mutual funds, which are made up of some fund manager's favorite stocks within that sector. (After the horror of 2008, need I say more on that subject?)

ETFs have a wealth of really attractive benefits. Indeed, if mutual funds epitomize complexity and concealment... ETFs embody common sense and openness. Take a look...

•ETFs are cheaper -- up to 75% cheaper.
Because the managers of ETFs are NOT picking stocks (now there's a selling point!), ETFs have it all over mutual funds when it comes to lower expenses. The typical mutual fund costs you more than three times as much as typical ETFs.

•No hidden fees and charges.
Like new cars, managed funds are rife with fees and extra charges. There are none with ETFs. Zero.

•Big tax advantage.
Uncle Sam gets a smaller bite of your ETF profits. That's because ETF indices have much lower turnover than the overwhelming majority of actively managed mutual funds. You rarely have to think about capital gains distribution.

•Ease of trading.
ETFs trade like stocks. Unlike mutual funds, you can buy ETFs at any time throughout the trading day, and you never have to guess what the closing price will be when you trade them. Result: You can change direction on a dime. With a single trade, ETFs allow you to buy or sell a well-known and amazingly stable basket of stocks -- anytime the market is open!

•You always know what you own.
All ETF holdings are clearly listed. No manager with a hunch can take a wild gamble with your money. Hard to believe, but mutual funds are only required to disclose their holdings twice a year. No wonder so many people were shocked and awed by what happened to their funds in 2008.

•Easy to get started.
There is no minimum to buy into most ETFs. Many mutual funds have high minimum requirements.

•Take profits when you want.
Most mutual funds will make you pay if you try to take profits too quickly. With ETFs you sell when you want without penalty.

But the best advantage ETFs have over mutual funds is the old bottom line.

ETFs are simply outperforming mutual funds. Sure, a few fund managers can beat the index. Most are failing miserably and likely will for the foreseeable future.

With ETFs you match the index's performance. What's more, the big swing to ETFs will clobber the fund industry again. Look for their performance to get even worse as the "stimulus" fails.

As you probably guessed, the key is to know which ETFs to buy.

That's where Successful Investing comes in. With our help, you'll know exactly which ETFs to scoop up and, just as important, when to buy and sell.

What's the best way to get started? I suggest with a FREE copy of my new special report:

The Fabian Battle Plan:
How to Profit Richly From the
Disastrous Government Policies

Over the next two years, we are going to be presented with the buying opportunity of a lifetime. But you must keep several things in perspective:

First, remember what I said about personal politics. Keep them OUT of your financial planning decisions. I do, and the policy has never failed me.

Second, even if you are truly, deeply inspired by President Obama, you must keep one cold, hard fact paramount in your thinking -- this dynamic, young leader's policies are not based on the fundamentals of economics and finance.

Heaping taxes on a gravely wounded economy is about as anti-growth as can be.

Yet, as I itemized earlier, Obama has dropped a "stimulus bill" on the country that turns out, on examination, to be a mammoth $800 billion expansion of government and a sure-fire recipe for disaster in this economic environment.

Again, I'm not attacking the new President personally. I'm just stating cold, hard reality. Ignore me at your extreme financial peril.

And -- support him or not -- as investors we have no choice except to make the best of his years in office... and that's exactly what your FREE special report will do. Here's how.

Over the next two tumultuous years we will be faced with a deflationary collapse, followed by the buying opportunity of a lifetime. The market entry point is critical. Knowing it will make your fortune.

I'm talking about a raging-bull stock market...

... that could soar by 200-300%. Will you be ready? Will your wealth have escaped yet another crash? If so, will you know the facts and have your money in the right ETFs to be in position to ride the new bull market?


Comment by TEH
DOW up 100+ points and crude oil at 77 now. We are in green-land. Greece's debts taken care of, and read about Spain, Portugal and some other countries might follow suit ... their debts level, that is.

I m still busy collecting bullets and did not withdraw any from my investment a/c. That is my promise to myself ... 2 year ago when I started to trade/invest. In but never out. But due to shifting etc etc which I need to use some money, I did not manage to increase any amount. Hope to be settled and will start to accumulate more ammunitions to .... SHOOT. Yeah ... I m still negative about this BULL-run and believe this bull run will not last long, till the next dive to come. Even Soros said so ... Perhaps KLCI will never see 800 level again, but if KLCI dive to 1000 level, many ... MANY stocks will go 30% cheaper from the current levels.

Genting at RM5? CIMB below RM10? KLK back to RM10? MayBank back to RM6? Many believe they wont go lower ...

Anyway, besides Genting .. I do not look into those. I do still track AMMB and MMCCorp.

I have been in BUYING spree for the past 2 weeks as market lowering and correcting. I dont understand why many will sell before CNY. They may use many excuses to SELL, the funds are taking profits, actually. So, we should be glad to buy our favourites at discounted prices.

Today ... nothing to sell yet, but by next week when many came back from CNY holiday, markets will be a busy place - and I will be glad to release my holdings if they reached my targets. I will be glad with 10-15% profits. Sometimes a profit of 5% deemed good. Otherwise, I will cut with 3-5% losses. Yes, I do not buy and hold.

Buy and Hold?

I will buy and hold when markets diving or a particular stock dives. I bought Geely at 3.40, but could not get it at 3.00 level. Today it is at 3.60 level. Mind you, it dived from 4.30 level(if I m not mistaken). So, this is a BUY and HOLD. Buy MORE if it go below 3.00, and continue to collect ... be glad to sai-lang if it is at 1.50 level. GS bought Geely at 1.80 level, ok?

CWP is another counter I m buying to HOLD. I will only buy at 0.68 level. Yes, I hv written it somewhere ... and I m writing in my own blog for MY OWN viewing. I will repeat it as it is for my reference. Hey, I dont care how my readers say la. Hehe. Anyway, once I plan to buy at 0.68 ... I will like to survey the general markets environment too.

Adventa dived from a high of 4.35 to the low at 3.03 ... I bought at rm4, then at 3.60 and 3.50. It shot up for a moment and I sold some at 3.80, before it continued to retrace. At 3.30, I started to collect again, but it moved lower ... and grabbed more at 3.10. Honestly, I do not know my average for Adventa as I know I m buying to HOLD ... hold till the next rubber rally(next week or so?) and be happy to sell. I do know that each time when it go lower, I could get it cheaper ... and I should be buying more units at lower price. Personally, I like Supermax(FA point of view) for rubber play. Or even Kossan(which I recommend my good friend to buy - she bought at 4.80 level and HOLD).

E&O is my buy and hold. During my selling spree, I sold some at 1.18-120 levels, and still holding some. It went to RM1 level last week, and I collect some. E&O is my property stock. I do like many others, but E&O at RM1 looks 'cheap'. Perhaps because I m teaching at Dua-Residence, developed by E&O. Or perhaps I do like St Mary's project? I dont know ... I like property stocks such as IGB, IJMLand and many more. TAGB and SPSetia too.

Steel : I like LionInd, and recently I sold it off(small loss) to acquire more of AnnJoo-wb at 0.690. I sold my Kinstel for a loss too, only to buy back LionInd at 1.55 before CNY. And I want to buy and HOLD LionInd ... AnnJoo-wb is for trading.

MAS : I m still monitoring to buy ... and HOLD this 'flying' stock. In fact, I told my aunt that I will BUY this one soon for her. She wont mind holding for months/years!!

I have always against those 'buy and hold'. I see that as a waste of funds STUCKED in one/two counters ... it goes up 30%, still hold ... and it comes back to your entry point, of course still HOLD. Then, it go lower by 20%, still hold. Many those Buy-n-hold should ADMIT that either they are lazy, lack of knowledge on when to sell or plain ignorant. Buy and hold? Hmmm ...

9.20 am : KLCI up 8 points.

9.40 am : KLCI up 9.10 points now, with AnnJoo-wb at 0.75. I will start to sell at 0.80, may be.

10.50 am : KLCI up 10.2 points, with AnnJoo-wb at 0.76 ... time to clear some at 0.78 for 10% profits and hold the other half for the next push, if any.

Supermax doing better than Adventa today. i have cleared my Supermax without profit as I shifted it to Adventa. I wish I have more funds to shoot ... perhaps I m too diversified, my main weakness. Yeah, perhaps I need to buy HUGELY into only a few stocks that i REALLY like, such as Geely and CWP. Perhaps I shouldnt be greedy to look into Genting or MAS, but to buy HUGELY in LionInd, E&O and Adventa. And trade only AnnJoo-wb, rather than still eyeing SPSetia-wb, Wct-wb and Waseong-wa. I need to collect my ammunitions ... fast and soon. This rally will halt soon.

3.20 pm : KLCI still up but only 9 points now. AnnJoo-wb not done at 0.78, so I might hold for another day and sell tmr at 0.78 or higher. I will like to sell LionInd at 1.70+ again. None of my steel-stalk-list in red. All green.

As for rubber-stocks, Supermax shooting higher, up by 7% today. Adventa up 8% to be at 3.58 now. Buying at 3.10 was a good entry point? Buying at 3.30 was a good entry point too? You might think it this way ... but, at 3.30 when I bought it, I m still holding to it as it dived lower each day to below 3.10 level. Buying 3.10 is good level? Wait till you know how much I m holding to this one(even cut off Supermax to focus on this one, anticipating it to go below Rm3) and I keep buying ... you will know I was IN FEAR. Yes, I started to buy more when my FEAR increases. Tho the FEAR FACTOR is an indicator to my trades, there are some I could not take it and have to release them with losses. Adventa WAS a good entry at 3.10 and 3.30 afterall. How about at RM4? Stupid entry point? Wait till you know that i WAS glad to buy at RM4 seeing it retracing from 4.30!! So, in trading we NEVER really know what to expect next!! Expect the worst, if you need to have expectations!!

3.35 pm : The turnover is average, at RM600m now. Many still in holidaying mood ... and we shall see higher volume on Monday. Tmr and Friday ... we shall see increasing volumes and the 'funds' will be back to goreng some counters and push the KLCI higher. With DOW 'recovering' from the huge recent sell-out, KLCI might see 1280 again(all the way to 1300? I doubt it but a real possibility is there) ... and I will be VERY glad to have my selling spree again ... I want out when markets is hot. Too hot to handle ... I m about 90+% into markets now. FEAR is there?

TAS : I do not have the bullet and no intention to buy any today but TAS at 0.67 is simply tempting. I think I have to let go of it too ... seeing that I want to top-up Geely and CWP, chanelling more funds to HKSE. So, TAS at 0.67 and below is a buy to me ... nice.

Efficient : At 0.19 today(I started to collect 10k@0.20 and 10k@0.19 ) ... I will like to collect at 0.18 and 0.17 level. Technically, is it a buy? I dont know ... I do know I will buy it below 0.20 and has patiently waiting for this buying level. Sai-lang at 0.15 level, but it is VERY unlikely at this point of time ...unless markets collapse?

3.55 pm : Suddenly there is a surge in AnnJoo-wb and done at 0.80. Am I lucky or what that it was not done at 0.78? Hmm ... and back home right on time to see it surges higher? Hmm ... like I know. I dont.

It continues to go higher, at 0.83 now and I m queueing to clear another half at 0.88. If it id done, bravo. Thanks for the angpow. Otherwise, I shall hold till tmr or next week. AnnJoo-wb has been my fav warrant play and I hv reaped many times from it. Thanks.

LionInd at 1.66, and I think I should be able to clear it for 15% profits next week. While I m looking to clear Adventa, Genting will be a sell for me at 7.20+. I want to focus in a few ... clearing all those 'smaller' holdings.

4.55 pm : KLCI closing with only 5.68 points higher as some day-trader taking profits before market closes. Supermax and Kinstel doing well. Yes, if I hv enough funds, I wont release these two babes. Even IJMLand at current level, I will like to HOLD.

10.45 pm : Are we scare of the double DIP? The W-shape recovery .... Soros mentioned about? Have we forgotten that ONLY the stock markets rallying strong but the economic data NOT showing much such strong signs of recoveries? Do you want to believe this rally, or bull run or whatever you called it, will last? KLCI at a high of 1350-1450? Any chances? Wanna put a poll to judge it yourself? Clueless like me? You are not alone.

Those missed the boat, be patient. The tide is going against the boat soon and will drift back to your waiting point(s). Yes, place a few waiting points for the stock of your love/fav. If you like GenM, for example, perhaps wait for 2.60 or below. And wait further for 2.20, the strong support level. Wait ... you mean you are seeing GenM at 3.30 and above soon? Then, do not hesitate to BUY today. It was in RED and closed at 2.75. Phew, I bought at 2.90 and sold it at the same level. Today, if I like this one ... I might consider it at 2.75, instead. Nope ... I rather seeing it at 2.60 and 2.20 next.

KNM : TTW, do read Dali's writing about this one ... quite similar with what I shared with you during CNY. On your question of KNM's privitisation news, it makes me laugh. But, IF I bought at 0.70 ... I will laugh louder as I will SELL at 0.80 level now. WHAT? Who is waiting for 0.90? So, it is still a sell for me at 0.80 level or so. KNM has been used as a goreng stock in KLSE for some time now. You dont think KNM is the best oil-stock in KLSE due to huge volume, dont you?

TEH

Tuesday, February 16, 2010

CNY is over to me ... back to work and markets. DOW down slightly but still staying above 10k.

There are always arguements between a FA and TA. Something I could not understand WHY. If FA bring you tonnes of money in your investments, just continue to do what you have been doing right. And if one profits from using TA, he should continue to use the system(s) that suit him. Simple as that?! Many using FA + TA these days, but nothing could replace experiences, I feel.

I spoken to an investor who only look into blue-est chip in KLSE and using some TA to trade his stocks. I m impressed with his knowledge, and he said "it is called experience", after more than 15 years in KLSE, he more or less could 'guess' the direction next. He uses some TA indicators to confidently buy/sell his holding. I agreed with him in many aspects. FA should come first, then use some TA + lots of experience(if you have any) ... we could be more confident with our trades.

TEH

Saturday, February 13, 2010


12.10 pm : Finally, I might have some time with my family ... will have lunch with bro/sis later, and dinner with mom at home. This is the meaning of Chinese New Year, I guess.

Happy Chinese New Year.

TEH

Friday, February 12, 2010

1.40 pm : Subang Parade

KLCI up 2 points in a very thin volume. No one is free for markets ... and many taken out money to go for last minutes shopping.

MAS : I do see the improvement in aviation sector overall, especially regional in coming years. So, I will be glad to add my positions in MAS(mana ada sistem). It will be interesting to see MAS without Jala, tho. Will the new CEO carrying out what left by Jala? Cost-cutting and efficiencies are main concerns in MAS. I have yet to read much to know what the right issues is about(the fund raising ... pairing down debts, increase working capitals or letting the management have holidays in Nepal? The previous MAS lost billions, you know. Guess HOW?).

Hence, trading at 1.90 level, I will want to know more before decide more. As many are selling and not taking up the rights, I will go the other way, subcribe to the rights.

Being a share-holder of MAS, I think I should fly MAS every weekend to KK, rather than AirAsia?

HAPPY CHINESE NEW YEAR to all, anyway.

TEH

Thursday, February 11, 2010

DOW is flat but under-water for the whole trading session. We might still see some bargain buyers later, and I m still watching AMMB which moved up yesterday after the reports about the bank's earnings.

AnnJoo-wb : This is the warrants(for steel) that I m collecting, and liking WahSeong-wa now at 0.35 level. But, I shall hold on not to buy any others except AnnJoo-wb IF it is going lower the next level.

12.15 pm : KLCI is flat ... with AnnJoo-wb moving lower, to collect at 0.62 level then. MAS at 1.92. Noted.

Gadang going below RM1 with the news of "Gadang plans rights issue".

3.05 pm : MAS at 1.88, an auspicious number. Hehe ... time to buy more? Well, I will wait till after CNY.

TEH

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

DOW up 150 points!! GREEN DAY ... or is it?

11.20 am : KLCI up 8 points ... AMMB surging up. Hmm ...

I will like to continue to trim my positions(over exposed) after CNY as I m anticipating another deep correction after short bargain-buyings after CNY. And will only focus in a few in hands.

RHBInvest : Parkson, Unisem, QL, Faber, Kossan, Hai-O and Maybank

Ok, I will re-arrange these KLSE's babes in order of my liking : Kossan, Hai-O, Parkson, QL, Unisem, Faber and the least Maybank.

3.30 PM : KLCI up 11 points ... but many retracing after the morning surge.

4.35 pm ; Geely doing well today, up 14% and my queue at HKD3 not done. It closed at 3.53. Well, so I shall wait then ...

KLCI up 13+ points now, leads by AMMB.

TEH

Tuesday, February 09, 2010

DOW down by 100+ points, confirming the bearish outlook with HSI at 19,500 level now. We shall see RED angpows later in KLSE ... as KLCI moving to 1225 level next.

So, I have to trim my holdings to preserve my funds ... in order to buy more when we see lights, perhaps after CNY. At the moment, everyone needs money to distribute angpows/fa hung.

AMMB at 4.60 now ... hmm ... let it go, let it go ... till CNY, then.

EPMB back to 0.420 level will be nice ... but, do I hv the bullets to shoot? Hmm ...

O&G : Liking Kencana, Sapcres, Perisai and Scomi ... Perisai at 0.40 and Scomi at 0.35?

11.20 am : Lunch time for me as I will be too busy again after lunch. I m too busy to even bring my girl for check-up, and now I was told that my dad hospitalised last night. Down ... but not out yet.

KLCI down another 10 points and at 1225!! What a coincidence that I wrote 1225 this morning! Hmm ... perhaps, should buy 4-D no. 1225?? Ok OK ... I will as I didnt buy 4D in years! haha.

Genting at 6.50 ... interesting. I m queueing for Advanta at RM3 this morning but it is not done.
SELL SELL SELL : I sold off IJMLand, Supermax LionInd and Kinstel. All with small losses yesterday. So, I hv to have maggi-mee dinners for few days.

Adventa : Tho I hv managed to cleared some of it at 3.80, I m still holding some bought at RM4.00 and RM3.30 which are drowning ... I will buy more at RM3 and below, as I cleared my Supermax for this.

AnnJoo-wb : This is another I m stucked with now but I cleared LionInd and Kinstel yesterday to collect more of AnnJoo's baby, one of my fav warrants.

BJToto, Genting and MAS ... these so-called KLSE's cool babes are wearing reds too. I will only buy more into Genting at this point of time. No funds for others and as I m eyeing at HKSE.

Geely : Might go below HKD3, if market persists its down-trend. This looks like a sharp knife, and I m holding on to collect more at lower level. Have not determined not this one.

CWP : At 0.72 today, it is falling together with most green-stocks. I will like to see 0.68 and below before considering to increase my holdings.

As water-falls forming AGAIN, and fears are surrounding us ... I will start to be BUSY with markets during my CNY. Yes, I m a very hard-working ants. I work-work-work, then ... during rare off-days, I will work on my other sides of my income. I have my full-time job(quite well-paid), my tuition jobs ... and busy preparing to potentially setting up my center. Also, as markets are diving, I will be cautious as I m becoming greedier ... BE GREEDY when IN FEAR.

4.05 pm : Markets recovering after lunch ... but not all conuters recovering. AnnJoo still depressed lower.

TEH

Monday, February 08, 2010

8.40 am : I will be too busy to read or watch anything today. Busy and tired too. Wish I have the energy of the bull? Haha ... I m just a timid goat, actually.

Tiger beer sold out? People is flying Tiger Airways(listed in SGX yet?) ... and perhaps I might buy a TiGGer soft-toy for my baby girl. Or let my son wearing a 'TiGGer' shirts. Anything to do with tiger, to welcome the Tiger Year. Arrghh ... at least I m in slight CNY mood now. Hehe.

MAS price adjusted, at 2.07 a piece.

25 stocks picked by S&P : Taken from The Star --- read HERE

4.05 pm : WOW ... KLCI down by 13 points - panic selling and we will see this pull-back to be deep ... and we might want to think that markets are reversing. CUT or HOLD? I m cutting off Kinstel and LionInd soon, with some losses. Cleared IJMLand this morning ... with some wounds. OUCH.



TEH

Sunday, February 07, 2010

9.05 am : I had a nice walk on the beach early in the morning ... very nice and soothing. In my heart, I know I will miss all these ... but a U-turn is unthinkable.

So, not to follow my heart this time, I will follow my brain. I will use my karat-ed brain. It has been about 10 years my brain in dormant. Haha ... as I am enjoying my lives in a slow-pace and nice Sabah.

你是我的唯一/巫启贤



Business Investment : Tuition Center

I might want to continue to teach for another 10 years or so, and while giving tuitions and setting up a center will be my next course of actions. Earn ... save ... invest. Earn more, save more ... diversify your investments. So, I do see going into a tuition-business as lucrative. And I m determine to succeed.

Property Investment : A house

With my higher fixed wages, I could apply for higher value housing loans. Subang Jaya properties are expensive. A 'simple' 1200 sq ft house can cost you up to RM250k. And some which I saw in ads were simply ridiculously priced. Will you buy a double-story terrace for half a million??! Anyway, currently I m looking around for a house at Subang Jaya or USJ(ultra super jam) area ... placing a budget of RM250k-RM300k. Since I m in no hurry(a year time frame), I will look into all posibilities ... including through agents, bank-auctions, advertisements or even through recommendations from individuals.

Stock Investment : KLSE ---> HKSE

This is my main invesment vehicle in 2009, and 2009 has been a GOOD year for those in share-markets. But, do you see 2010 as GOOD or even better? KLCI to reach 1400-1500 level? I m skeptical of that view. I think markets will go further higher at a slower rate after CNY for few weeks before the HUGE DIVE. All is concern on how the higher rise of the interest rates affecting the markets overall.

As the China is tightening some loose screws, we are seeing some money/funds moving out. HSI going below 20k now, looking at 18k level for support. So, I shall trim and cut some of my KLSE's babe ... and looking to BUY and focus in HKSE's babes - China's energy sector will be my targets. As many readers will have known, I do like WindPower the most. Solar stocks will be doing well too in near future. So, LongYuen suits this idea of investments. Comtec Solar's price is still reasonable, and solar stocks were struggling in 2009.

I have started to BUY in Geely, for China's auto play, will be glad to buy more IF market collapse!! Will it go below HKD2 again? We shall see ...

Education Investment : Attending courses

As a novice, I hv always wanted to attend some courses, in trading and investments, of coz. So, I will invest some money and time into these courses, to learn the real and actual ways of investments. Mind you, I m still very raw - a mere 2 years old in markets - so, it is only logical to attend courses to increase my knowledge. To many who are reading these lines ... I have a confession. I m a NOVICE. I know nothing much about trading/investing ... and everything I know about are through reading books. I m trying out some theories that I read about and some work, some dont. I m in LEARNING process. So, please DO NOT follow my buyings. There are MANY good stock blogs which could give you a better analysis, I bet. Mine is an kopi-tiam uncle chatting about share markets. Once a while, will talk about family and works. Hehe ...

Anyway, my points have been repeated many of times as many asking me about some certain stocks etc etc like I know a lot. I DONT. That is my humble confession. Take my blog as a pleasure reading ... AFTER you have read all the other blogs or articles in THE EDGE and financial MAGZ. I no longer have time to read.

Have to run to for tuition classes till 3.30 pm again. Then, by 4pm I will be in KKIA and reaching USJ around 11pm, as I travelled by plane-bus-LRT-bike.

Well, have a nice weekend. I wont have weekends for another few months!! :(

4.50 pm : At KKIA(T2) and finally I have an hour to relax and will catch a nap on the flight later. CNY is next weekend, and I have NOT do any shopping for it. Well, I dont even have the CNY atmosphere yet. I m too busy to notice. When I m back home around 11.30pm, my wife and kids will be sleeping by then and I hv to continue to mark some test papers, hoping to give back by tmr, if possible.

Ok, going to read newspaper - online.
TEH

Saturday, February 06, 2010

Lunch time - DOW managed to close slightly above 10k, but crude oil at USD71 now, might test 70 level soon.

10.20 pm : Tired as I was teachinf from 8am till 9.30pm. Watching Liverpool leading by a goal now against Everton. Derby-game.

KLCI might go lower next week due to CNY, and profit taking time. Even I hv to cut one or two to get some money in the bank, just in case I need it for CNY ...

MAS : I kinda like MAS ... but I just booked AirAsia for my flights!! MAS a BUY at 2.50 for me. So, I might trim some or cut off some to acquire more of it. MAS ... now, everyone can fly?

10.45 pm : Finally, Liverpool won 1 - 0.

TEH

Friday, February 05, 2010

DOW down by 250+ points, and went below 10k below closed a fraction above 10k, at 10,002. Well, we are seeing some panic selling ... and it might affect the rebound of KLSE. We might be seeing RED again ... and I might be trapped if I refuse to 'run' later ... will wait to see later, and perhaps cut-off next week. CNY is near ... and I do need to give angpows.

KNM take private by Lee? Well, 90 cents is good for those buying at current 0.75 level but we are unsure if he could push it through ... O&G stocks should be doing well by next year or so.

KLCI down 16 points. BUY BUY BUY ...

Queues : Genting at 6.80 and AMMB at 4.70.

9.40 am : Genting done at 6.80. As expected KNM, moving higher ... touched 0.85, above 0.80 easily in the sea of reds ...

10.30 am : HSI opens with 500 points lower, going below 20k. Now, Qinfa is back to 2.05 level(I sold at 2.60) and I dont have enough bullets to shoot. I have to wait till I cut-off a few ... and aiming it at 1.80 level. CWP back to 0.75 levels too, which I will like to grab more at 0.68. With Geely back to my purchase price of 3.30, I need to prepare more bullets ... to buy. I will be trimming others while focusing in a fewer which I like : Geely and CWP. So, I might hv to let go of Qinfa and LongYuen which I m eyeing.

As I m starting to buy into Genting, I will continue to collect more of it. Its RSI going below 30 and at 6.80 level is its strong support. Next support seena t 5.98 levels. Buying more if it goes below RM6? By then, it is a market reversal ... as KLCI going below 1250 level now. Will we be seeing 1200 level for CNY? Is the TIGER going to roar or the BEAR taking over?

12.25 pm : KLCI closing 12.5 points lower for lunch, with 550 counters in red. I saw Redtone-LR traded actively, explaining to me why Redtone's price plunged lower than 0.30 level. A check on GPacket seeing that it is below 1.20 now, with GPacket-wa at 0.60, the entry points I placed last week. With such a bearish outlook, I m going for Genting and AMMB and wont touch speculative counters.

6.55 pm : LCCT - to KK

KLCI closed 17 points lower today, with many heavyweights losing grounds. Genting closed at 6.78. Ok, will re-check the waterfalls I wrote last Friday when my flight delayed, and yes, ... today the flight delaying again for half hour(not as bad as last week).

10.30 pm : Reached KK and need to rest soon after the long journey. Will have classes from 8 am till 9.30pm tmr and also Sunday 8 am till 3pm before flying back to KL, for yet another looong tiring week. I hope I could remain strong to go thru these ... a test of endurance.


TEH

Thursday, February 04, 2010

12.25 pm : Lunch time - catching a glimpse of the markets. Need to go again ... till 9pm. By then, I will be too tired to on my pc to check on the prices. I need to get the i-phone and 3G things so that I could check vital signs of my portfolios. SOON.

IGB : A buy at 1.80 level.

916 : A number to remember for Malaysians. I will be looking into it.

TEH

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

DOW up another 100+ points ... well, will KLCI respond positively too?

It is almost 7 am now, I m already in office - need to grab something to eat before yet another crazy looong day till 7.30pm today. I m so so busy that I have not paused awhile to read other blogs for some time, or even biz-news. I do not have a TV yet, so I missed all those stories. I know nothing much of the going-ons ... so, I will just continue to buy what I m holding on, and sell IF any rebound strongly. Otherwise, I will become a looong term investor!!

Will buy Adventa at 3.15 and 2.80 levels next.

9.25 am : I saw Kinstel, Muhibah and E&O at 1.02 level. I shall check on these three by END of THIS MONTH ... guess who shall come on top? NOTED

12.10 pm :Teaching excellent kids some kacang-putih stuff is a challenge to me. Yes, I m currently teach a class of students some basic Maths but these kids, their Maths could be said at the top 10% in our country!! One of them will, as always, get the Top of the World award in Maths ... and many more will get merits awards.

So, it is kinda ... 'difficult' to teach these so-called excellent students Maths? Many of them do not even lift a pen to write or do those questions I m giving as it is deemed to be 'too simple'. Kacang putih, as they said. I noticed the girls are more well-behaved and done the questions. It is always the boys? Hmm ... one of them is the National Math Champ last year!! A challenge of brain ... luckily I m not that bad in Maths myself. Phew. Still, their arrogant behaviours irritate me!!

Now ... will you have the patience of teaching a person what 'stock markets' are all about? How do we invest etc etc? We even have to start from ground-zero ... the terms they used etc etc, right? Spare me that ... my patience is thinning. These days we have INTERNET ... use google(no wonder Google stocks doing well. Haha) .... READ and LEARN, ok? Or attend some courses ... if you have spent 3-5 years doing your basic degree, I dont see WHY you are NOT educating yourself in investments and such, BEFORE venturing into markets? By asking around for opinions or comments is like ... hmm ... what do you think of the number 3645, can come out tmr in TOTO or not? Or should I buy Magnum, instead? Silly.

I m not refering to a kopi-tiam uncle or a taxi driver telling me LCL is a buy now, ok? Or MAS is a sell as we have the TP(target price) at certain price? Who place the TP, can I ask? The 'irresponsible' and un-accountable stock-analysts who work for some IB or broker houses, right? Should we take heed? Or, should we ignore the noises, read what is needed and THINK independently? Or perhaps ... shouldnt we be a contrarian, instead?

I dont know ... I dont have the time to reply to e-mail and such. I do know that I learnt NOT to listen to others, especially your brokers/dealers. I feel that the TP is NOT relevant in what I m going to do(buy/sell ... hold or dont touch). Besides, I m too busy now to know the going-ons. So, logically, I should just follow some policies in investing - buy during a pull-back. Buy those fundamentally strong that you like. Then ... HOLD. Hold forever, if u can.

4.15 pm : Just finished my classes in college and going for another tuition class now.

Rubber stocks moving higher, IRCB ... I dont touch. But, I m holding Supermax at 4.91 which I will be glad to clear at 5.50 soon(at 5.34 now) and Adventa which I bought at 4.30 yesterday before market closing, to clear them at 3.65 level.

Redtone : Can I know what is going on with its chart? It dropped down yesterday, to 0.265, and touched a low of 0.26 today. Why? Need to check before moving back into RedTone.

TEH

Tuesday, February 02, 2010

8.15 am : DOW simply refused to go below 10k level, instead shooting 100+ points in a bargain-buying, with many in my list gained more than 5% this morning. Crude oil moving back to USD75 level. Gold still stands at 1100 level, and we might be seeing 1200 level soon. This positive sentiment could build a base for traders to move in back to KLSE, and we are expecting a positive results today ... perhaps in this coming few days before CNY. I do expect KLSE to go flat or low before CNY as everyone needs the money to give angpows.

As I was busy buying last week, I do hope to clear some this week IF there is such a rebound.

To add : IJMLand(at 2.15) and/or Perisai(at 0.49).

11.30 am : Lunch time for me, KLCI up 5 points and HSI recovering too. Geely at 2.60(enter 2.40) and CWP at 0.78(still have some at 0.82).

Rubber stocks retracing further ... I wont touch IRCB, but I just grabbed some Adventa at 3.31 moments ago. IJMLand done at 2.14.

Lithium : Looking into WLC. It is up 14% yesterday, and more upside seen.

TEH

Monday, February 01, 2010

8.25 am : Classes start from 9 am on Mondays, and will be busy right till 7pm, at KLCC.

It is KL's day today ... I think Brusa should be closed today. I dont know as I was too busy shifting my wife and kids to SJ here over the weekend. I m flying back to KK again this Friday, leaving my family here.

Time to get back to my work - the workload here is about 4 times of KK's college. And the KK's college is counter-offering me a higher pay, requesting me to consider to move back to KK. Arrghhh ... well, tho I do appreciate the offer, and also love KK very much more than KL(I love real jungle, not concrete jungle) ... I have my things settling in KL here. It is un-thinkable at the moment for me to move back to KK ... unless my wife and kids couldnt adapt to the 'liveless' lifestyle here? Hmm ... I shall proceed with my plans, tho I m very tired.

Ok, as for KLSE ... any rebounds will give me the opportunities to exit. I will be glad to sell many of my holdings which I bought for the past few days for 'small' gains. Then, I wish to rest from market, to enjoy my CNY here with my family. If markets are REALLY reversing(quite likely ... but dont know when), one should be patient to wait. I m seeing a huge dive(talking about it since last year! Haha) ... and will dare myself to move into US-market and HK-market again. So, I do need to sell my KL's babes.


TEH