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Saturday, February 28, 2009

SIME : 1 yr chart. Those bought at Rm10 1 yr ago are NOT long-term investors but rather some ignorant aunties/uncles that I pitied their greed and stupidity. At 5.50 level at the moment, TIME TO SELL before it falls to Rm4 or below?

GUESS THIS : SIME to move UP, MAINTAIN or BELOW RM5 level by AUG2009?

Are you SURE you are long term investor and REALLY know what you are BUYING? Do u know what a BEAR market is? Ok, aunties/uncles ... you may contact me but I will still ask you to SELL, CUT off your limbs and LEARN. No point looking into my 'negative' blog, right? Look into brokers' reports better ... at least they will say BUY with Target Price ... emmm ... RM9.20? Do you prefer to be told about the TRUTH or something more soothing to your HEART? Err ... we buy stocks with BRAIN, you know. NO BRAIN ... NO TALK.

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DOW going lower again ... AB and AS going down each day. I was thinking of what RU told me about the 'knife'. Will look into that later on.

Today I will be busy ... I will be attending the RHB market chat in the morning and Option-trading talk in the afternoon. Definitely I could learn something there being a novice.

Novotel hotel : 9.10 am : OK, i m sitting here ... going to listen what they have to say this morning - by RHB : Market Chat. Everyone, especially a novice like me SHOULD attend such a FREE talk, to give them some IDEA about market sentiments. Well, Mr Lim of RHB is a well-known person, u may see him in Star-biz or The Edge.

The title : Have a sense of direction even when the market does'nt.

BTW, I met an ex-collague(teaching computering) here. KK is really small, and I m VERY surprised that she is here?? Market chat?? Anyway, since I told her I m only started one year ago, surely I can't give concrete and good adviices? Hmm ...

Well, as we chat, I found that she bought SIME at rm5.20. When I m curious to know WHY she will choose SIME, she mentioned DIVIDEND. Ok, fine ... there are many in KLSE for dividend, which some paying much higher than the pathetic FD. But, in BEAR MARKET you could easily lose more than half of your 'investment' as the stock prices zooooming down. Well, at RM5.20, market has been artifitially supported(read my previous posts, for my new-readers ... my friend), KLCI at 890 could no longer hold. So, SIME .... a babe I won't buy even at rm4.50? Perhaps, I have many more in my mind with limited funds.

12.45 pm : I m home after the nice chicken-wings they offered. Hehe. well, I registered with RHB-Invest ... and that will be my THIRD a/c. The fourth is coming... under Jupiter. Hmm ... it is like, WHY do u need so many saving accounts? Sometimes we justify it by saying different a/c for different purposes? Anyway, it is FREE ... with added chicken-wings, u know. Haha.

I hope the 200+ people who packed the room LISTEN carefully to Mr Lim, the head research of RHB-invest. I jotted down a few pointers but I saw MANY there only fold-hands, shake legs and perhaps waiting for him to mention WHAT STOCKS TO BUY la??

TOP PICKS by RHB : Tenaga, Tanjong, Resorts, BCHB, AMMB and TopGlove.

OK ... these for some uncles/aunties out there to BUY? What?? Are you rushing to KLSE to BUY one of these stocks on Monday?? Err ... you missed one more POINT he mentioned -- KLCI's PE is HIGHER that SGX and HKSE and most of our stocks are STILL expensive!! He spoken my mind --- PBBank is EXPENSIVE and could easily move further down!! Yes, I posted my comment in RHB-YAHOO group/forum(it is FREE ... let me help them to promote it ... err RHB, are you paying me anything? Can I hv more chicken-wings free for, say, one month? Hehe)

"USD will not collapse ... well, it will appreciate perhaps till 3.70 or so before it starts to go lower, perhaps 3.30?" he said. In a way, I hv written about this ... yes, I agreed but I will see the COLLAPSE of USD(Faber and Schiff supporter!!) .. perhaps to go below Rm3, and other currencies will started to be used for trades. I remembered I read that in Dali, saying that CHINA should look into South-east Asia currencies rather than supporting USD! Good point, right? Also, someone in US accusing China of manipulating their currency ... that could create a TENSION between the two giants. We certainly do not wish to stay in the middle when two elephants fighting, right? Also, look into Russia's currency too, ok? Do your own homework la.

How low KLSE might go? He mentioned 750. Hmm ... I m more pessimistic to peg 650 for KLCI near-bottom? Hmm ... We shall see as NO ONE could give you how low to look into, but we all AGREED(I hope aunties/uncles WILL LISTEN) KLCI will dive down soon ... Do you know HOW KLCI could stay floating at 890 level even when most equity markets going south? THINK. Do you see that it was artificially hiked-up? Do you see SIME, TENAGA and such being used to support KLCI? NO NO NO??? Hmm ... strange ... why many STILL in KLSE? Because KLSE going to surge up soon, and KLSE in consolidating mode(accumulating) while waiting for strong BULL in OX year? THINK THINK.... no, not using your heart/emotion or butts, use BRAIN?

"Defensive stocks in KLSE are NOT cheap" he said. Of coz I agreed. When KLCI dive down SOON, NO stock will be spared!! Look for Genting at rm3, Resorts at Rm2, Sime at RM4.50, Tenaga at Rm5.50. Astro ... err .. I dont know ... hmm ... RM1.20? How about KNM?

How about Malaysia's gov stimulus? Only rm400m actually reached to the bottom from the NOV's stimulus announced by Najib" he said. Do you hear that? Most of the money used to support the cronies' companies and 'masuk poket'. So, our stimulus is coming slow and ineffectiveness of our gov(and lack of transparency) to pass it on WILL NOT help much.

Indicators : Yes, CPI is one of my many indicators. Jan export down by 17.5%. Wow. Did you know that? You may want to read "The Economist" for these data, or many more through internet,if you know-how. He also mentioned looking into risk-aversion and bond spread. Hmm ... these will be asking for too much from our uncles/aunties that attended such market chat. I posted another comment in the RHB-forum regarding a person asked Genting going into 52-weeks low, can start to BUY? Oh boy ... I placed a resounding NO. Hope he won't listen to me, and then curse me(moron etc etc that some have thrown to me! Haha) when Genting actually move higher next month? Oh boy oh boy ... difficult time needs difficult decisions.

How about foreign reserves and also GDP? These need someone with some economics background? Hmm ... What he mentioned benefit ME, but I don't think so the uncles/aunties interested with contraction of Malaysia GDP etc etc. HEY MR LIM, just tell me WHAT STOCK to BUY at WHAT PRICE ... also WHEN??!! You could see their disappointment, except for the SIX top pick stocks.

He said "Tenaga" ... ok ok buy Tenaga at rm6.40 on Monday!! See the danger of telling anyone WHAT to buy? They don't have strategies, they know nothing much about Tenaga(except paying elec-bills every month la). READ ME AGAIN .... GET OUT TOTALLY from KLSE until you could understand TENAGA(or whatever) business plan!! Start to read economic, accounting, business and financial books, please. Start to read about MENTAL strength books and of coz ... investment books!!

Talking about books, I just bought "All about Options" by Thomas McCafferty for Rm42. I will be into options next year or so, so I m starting to read some about it. Yes, I look into future and preparing my foundation.

1.20 pm : I need to go for the Option-trading talk at Sutera. Off

5.30 pm : I m back from the option-trading talk(went with JL). He is good, I mean he is a genius to tap on MANY gullible public. To begin with, the advertisement in the paper that I saw reads "Profit RM1200 per day ..." Yes, with few CLICKS of the mouse, you could gain RM1,200 per day!! Yeah ... is it possible? I agreed with him that IT IS POSSIBLE, if you know-how. The main problem? MINDSET!!

He asked the crowd of 60-80 of them how many of us trade/invest with KLSE? Only 3 of us? Sure or perhaps some SHY to admit(knowing that 90% losing money in KLSE!! Err ... I thought 80% but he said it is 90%. Ok) So, DO YOU SEE THE PROBLEM? MANY of Malaysians DO NOT and WILL NOT buy any stock in KLSE. So, we have small % of those THOUGHT could earn money from market and experience in KLSE ... how many losing MONEY again? 80-90% of them!! From those who do buy a stock(mostly BLUE CHIPS ... giving you the blue), how many KNOW about warrants or call-warrants? Out of those who know, how many REALLY DARE to play with it? And out of those play with it, how many % gain again??

HELLO?? He is speaking to these uncles/aunties who DO NOT even know what a stock is!! Haha ... but, tell you WHY he is smart .. these uncles/aunties MIGHT register the course(about rm7k) as GREED is in their eyes!! When greed camouflage our views, we could not really see what's ahead. That sounds ... dangerous? If you know-how, you be able to reduce the risk, of coz. Yes, he is good ... surely know his stuff. Glad to know him, actually :-)

8.00 pm : I just have dinner with my businessman bro-in-law. I like speaking to him about MONEY -- business environment, acquisition of wealth ... right to RESORTS. Yes, he is interested with Resorts and Maybank(but I shut-off Maybank) and ready to buy(with 3 yrs time frame). I will TIME for him into buying Resorts with 10% commission! hehe.

To LL : If you are SERIOUS about me TIMING the stock(s) for you, I will charge 20% of your profits, I m transparent here. (not 10% ... as he is my family member. For close-friends who trusted me only, I m willing to 'help'). To ZH, I m still waiting for your response la.

Min : 3k to Max 100k(except my bro-in-law).
Time frame : 3 to 5 years.
Target : Double your capital
Guarantee : If your capital go BELOW your initial capital, I will top-up for you, fair?
Conditions : MUST know me personally. MUST trust me. Otherwise, it is OK. Hi n Bye.

9.50 pm : I wanted to write about what I read from THE EDGE(AUG 11th 2008) about IPP yesterday but KNM making a story worth writing too. I shall reserve that for tmr, may be.

At the moment I want to write about HOMEWORK for my good-friend, JL. Yes, the assignments are :

1. Scan through the listed stocks and look for those going to its 52-week bottom. Some ARE in that situation but allow about 10-20% from the bottom. Example: The 52-week low of stock ABC at 2.00 and it is trading at 2.20+ now and still moving down, JOT IT DOWN. These were something I DONE last year ... to practise on seeing NEW BOTTOM!! You will see A LOT more once KLSE dive in Mac/Apr. Hence ... you have two weeks or so to list ALL those bottoming. Share with me your findings. Hehe.

2. Break these stocks into SECTORS ... then, single out those you MIGHT interested to BUY. Say, u found 50 stocks bottoming, take about 10 stocks to STALK. STALK means ... explain WHY it is going SO CHEAP fundamentally!! Stock prices are cheap for reasons. Look into these reasonings. Share with me on the WHYS and I will share with you what I THINK. Opinions-wise.

3. From the 10 stocks that you short-listed, LEARN to look into their charts : Price ve Volume. What can you see? Then, I shall show you(what I hv self-learned la) how it shall be interpreted.

4. Once the step 1, 2 and 3 done ... then, we need to come up with a trading plan!! Yes, I shared with you TWO strategies ... but trading plans depending on your strategies, actually. It is inter-dependent.

5. Finally, you are READY to STALK closely 3 or 5 stocks to BUY when KLSE diving!! Interesting?? I know JL well now, he won't complain about the homeworks. After all, he is a doctor! Hehe

Well, that is basically HOW I hv done last year ... practising on my trading plans, experiencing different strategies play that I read about and also increasing my trading mind. That works well for me, at least. Remember ... we are all different. I m placing these for JL as he could easily access to me, and NOT other readers, ok? Try it out ... if you have a SLIGHT complain it is too much of work, I advise you NOT to be in markets.
My trades using the above points : PA, SPSetia, IJM, Asiatic, IOICorp, TM. I might missed out a few more ... but read my previous posts, please. I like SPSetia trade the most and remembered vividly about it. But PA giving me the best % gain. hehe

"Many said they want to be rich, but they dont have the direction", the option trainer said. He mentioned many things I hv written and LOGICAL. Too bad ... uncles/aunties dont like HOMEWORK or using BRAINS. BUT they WANT TO BE RICH?

Teacher, can I score in my exams without attending your class and no need to study ar? Err ... can you just give me the exams paper? Better still ... give me the answers la?! How about give me the doctor-degree WITHOUT exams or lecturing la?? LOGICAL ar, uncles/aunties?

As on 19th FEB 2009

0017 GMT [Dow Jones] Alibaba.com' (1688.HK) near-term outperformance vs broadmarket may continue, supported by share buyback. Exchange filing shows companybought 3 million shares yesterday at HK$7.16-HK$7.45 each, after buying 5million shares Tuesday at HK$6.94-HK$7.45. Amount of shares bought quitesignificant, representing 59%, 34% of Tuesday, Wednesday's volume respectively;likely taken as showing company confidence in business prospects, despiteChina's external trade in severe downturn. Stock ended yesterday at HK$7.46,+8.7% so far this week vs HSI down 4.0%.(RLI)

MARKET TALK: Trading Buy Chance On Angang At HK$7.00 - UOBKH

0015 GMT [Dow Jones] UOB KayHian says rising steel inventories putting pressure on steel prices and, thus, steel stocks. Still, positive spin to supposedly bad news on inventories is China currently in talks with 3 big ore suppliers on new iron ore prices; rising inventories means weak steel demand,thus will strengthen China's hand in negotiation. House says there's attractive Trading Buy chance for Angang Steel (0347.HK), now close to suggested entry price of HK$7.00; keeps fundamental Buy on Maanshan Iron (0323.HK) with HK$3.70 target, as best proxy to China's stimulus package, particularly railway expansion initiative, but investors can wait for better entry levels belowHK$2.50. Angang down 1.0% at HK$7.19 yesterday; Maanshan down 0.7% at HK$2.71,both underperformed vs HSI +3.8%.(RLI)

TEH

Friday, February 27, 2009

DOW down almost another 100 points. DOW will be breaching 7000 level soon, and KLCI = DOW/10 ... so, KLCI will be at 700? Yes? No? Hmm ....

TOLL HIKE?

I was 'free' yesterday and managed to catch-up with JL. There are few things mentioned that I want to point it here. Before we go into stocks in KLSE, he told me that there is a toll-hike in KL. I don't read news, I m ignorant of such. But this makes me 'angry'(I m not using the toll but I m a PUBLIC) ... WTF our stupid and greedy gov talking about? SO SO many taken SO MUCH of MONEY into their OWN pockets(and WE ARE NOT STUPID, suckers) ... I read more of it in stock-tube. Are you buying PLUS or LITRAK stocks? These consessories paying millions to our moron-ministers and their cronies and they are asking for more milk? Why can't they suck their mom's?? NOW you know WHY foriegners laughing at us, we are far behind Singapore and no investors will want to INVEST in our corrupted-money-sucking gov? You may asked them to fuck themselves, but these BIG-BELLY fully with dung-shit brains are still sitting in the Parliment, preaching that they are ... errr ... protecting public interest? Haha. Hey, Datuk-datuks ... we know you all suck money, you may suck my balls, ok? Pause- I need my brain for my trading/investing ... very hard to stoop this low to these people, man. Give them shit.

Shares Buyback

I shown JL about share buybacks, pointing out some pro&cons of a company buying back their shares. In the business point of views and also as an investor's views. Also, as a trader who may want to play on such 'news'. Things that we read/see need to be digested before we could have OUR OWN opinion whether it is a PRO or a CON. So, these things are subjective, but it will help greatly IF you know who is the person behind the company and WHY they would want to buy back their shares(and at what price!!). You may want to read The Edge pages on the summerised share-buyback for the week.

Catch a rebound strategy

When a stock dives, you MIGHT be catching a KNIFE. So, how do we know it will rebound(or will it?) and take advantage on the rebounds to SELL at higher price days/weeks later?

I hv done that a few times ... IOICorp, TM, KNM, Resorts ... etc ... and more recent was LCL. I did not do anything about Ramunia, Transmile, Axis, MMC, Gamuda, Tenaga etc etc which dived too. TIMING to me is crucial, besides knowing whether its fundamentals still in tact!! What IF we really caught a KNIFE? It slashes us, we feel the pain and the wounds won't heal. It might NOT rebound back to the level we may purchase. Resorts at the moment is a good example. Someone I knew bought at RM2.50(i wrote about it before, I think) ... and Resorts at 2.20 AGAIN today(I sold off mine at 2.38 for a small profit and luckily ESCAPED!!). Will it ever go to RM2.50? Err ... are you a long term investor again? Hmm ... what are you doing in BEAR market, may I know? Bottom-fishing? Don't make me ridicule such a mentality again. Be real.

9.10 am : SGX and KLSE open green. Resorts and Genting inching lower. LCL at 0.43 and KNM good support at 0.40. Genting-cm at 0.040 vs 0.045, I m still watching(in horror!!) ... hmm ...

Emkay the most actively traded stock at the moment? Hmm ... wonder what is cooking. Other than that, it is another very low volume, thinly traded KLSE ... many day-traders going for small-bucks and gain a bit for another round of yam-cha boasting talks in kopi-tiams.

9.35 am : SGX in red now. KLCI up slightly. I m monitoring LCL and WCT at the moment.

10.40 am : Hey, KNM at 0.395 ... my queue at 0.39 might be done today. Hmm ... queue or cancel? AB and AS STILL in reds ... inching down everyday!!

12.45 pm : AB at 6.78 and AS at 6.60 ... oh boy. Hmm ... what shall I do next? Hmm ...
KNM planted at 0.395 - I spoken too fast yesterday when I said KNM could not go down below 0.40 this week or so, but I do know WILL go below 0.40 soon, somehow.

3.50 pm : I m busy ... another 2hours of tuition before rushing for the Rotary International dinner(by invitation). So, I didnt monitor the markets . AB and AS dropping down ... I will observe and WILL average down.

Note : I m CONTRADICTING many 'rules' ... for example, we read before DO NOT AVERAGE DOWN. Do not borrow money to invest and I took from banks. Hmm ...

Anyway, KNM at 0.390 vs 0.395 ... i dont know if it is a blessing or what that I didnt re-new my queue at 0.390 for the noon session!! Otherwise it will be done? Well, I wont queue for KNM and shall wait and see ... it touched 0.385.

TEH

Thursday, February 26, 2009

GOLD RUSH

5.25 am : Liverpool just scored an away goal against Real Madrid, the fav. They might not be able to win the BPL but they are always strong in Champions League.

DOW recovered and was in green for a while but finally lost 80 points.

Technical Analysis : KLCI for this week

The 14-day relative strength index was practically flirting within a narrow band around the mid-range the past week. After flashing a short-term sell at the top on Feb 12 2009, the oscillator per cent K and the oscillator per cent D of the daily slow-stochastic momentum index extended the downward momentum to the neutral areas.

Meanwhile, the daily moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) histogram had indicated a bearish divergence signal and in danger of slipping below the daily signal line.

In stark contrast, weekly measurements continued to improve, with the weekly slow-stochastic momentum index and the weekly MACD climbing higher.

The local bourse could not make much progress despite breaking out of the 21-week simple moving average for the first time in 12 months a week earlier, as investors were not enthusiastic to take up new positions due to frail offshore leads. Instead, they opted to book profit.

Despite that, Bursa Malaysia was holding quite well given the trauma the US market had been through the past week.

According to the daily chart, the recent breakthrough in the CI appears a half-hearted move for now (Feb 2009) and going forward; Bursa may just be range-bound due to limited participation from investors amid a dearth of market-stimulating news.

In short, there is still no solid confirmation of the recent bullish reversal.

While the weekly MACD is firming, the daily MACD is at risk of flashing a sell. Given the tricky technical reading, the key index may channel sideways pending a new lead to emerge.

Resistance is maintained at 925 points, 936.63 points, 946-950 points and the next, at 963 points.

As for the downside, support is seen at 886 points, 860-863 points band, followed by the 835 points.

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Well, I read such reports weekly in papers, through my broker's reports or anywhere at all. I will read such reports with an OPEN mind. Seriously speaking, I m NOT an TA-person as many thought I m. I m a FA as I look into companies account or/and their annual reports. I look into sectors and economies at a whole. A pure TA will only look into charts and indicators(and don't bother much about the companies and economic situations!). On the other hands, a pure FA will not even bother to look at the charts as they will buy a company-stock as an investor(and businessman point of views).

So, I need to say that I m more of FA than TA. Most of us(i think) might be a mixed of both. I used the term RA = FA + TA. For new readers, RA = Rojak Analyst. Haha. For a non-Malaysian, ROJAK is a FOOD with everything added in.

KLSE : I noticed YNH diving back into penny-stock world. The LOW is placed at 0.89(TA). It closed at 0.93 yesterday and as a TA trader, they will place a queue at 0.89(plus-minus). I do like this property stock and won't mind grabbing some below 0.89. Hmm ...

The Edge : April 28th 2008

I was going through the pile of my collection of the whole year 2008 THE EDGE papers and decided to pick one for simple reference purposes. 28th April was taken as it is my beloved sister's birthday!! So, it has nothing to do with markets or what-so-ever. Haha.

Ok, the title for that issue was A BRIDGE TOO FAR. It is regarding the tussle between CHEC and UEMBuilder on Penang Bridge. Mind you that BN just lost Penang to the opposition a month ago!! Well, we don't have UEMWorld and UEMBuilder in our KLSE listed companies anymore. Do you know WHY, right?

Another headline(page 8) : Wahid is no stranger to tough challenges. I do hope you know who Wahid is and also WHY he is an important figure in Malaysia'c companies!! TM and TMI demerger, also Maybank buying BII were VERY large news in local front, so if you DO NOT know Wahid, I think you should consider yourself aunties/uncles(GET OUT OF KLSE before you need to take loan from loan-sharks!!!).

Someone I heard bought PPBank without knowing Mr TEH(me??)? Is he conferred a Datukship -- Hey, HP Teh, you can BUY datukship in Malaysia la but do you need it, anyway? So, if you can't even bother who owns Genting or Resorts, I wonder what type of investors you are. It is SO SO irrational and illogical, IMHO, to buy Guoco without knowing Quek Leng Chan? Perhaps Hong Leong sounds more familiar to you? How about Kencana? Or perhaps Guoco that listed in SGX? These are important as we need to know who WAHID is before you look into Maybank stock/share, ok? Enough said.

In page 10, we have Sapura. Sound familiar? Read the whole page to know their businesses and companies that relate to Sapura.

In page 12, Proton and EON in spotlight. EON was privatised by DRB ... errr ... I do hope you know the man behind DRB, ok? Hmm ...

In page 14, Suria Capital eyes O&G upstream sector. There are many things a newbies could LEARN from such a short headline ... and of course READ the whole page, please. First question : what is Suria Capital(businesses etc etc)? Next .. O&G as a sector ... what is upstream and downstream(this apply to plantation too)? By the way, Suria is close to home here in Sabah and they are building a huge Suria shopping mall in KK city(bringing in Metrojaya from West).

In page 20, STEADY CLIMB FOR CPO PRICES ... interesting as CPO price was at 4000 level and hit high of RM4,486 speculated to breach RM4,500 at that point of time. One analyst quick to say he don't think so. Well, we know that it dived all the way to RM1500 level, and hanging at 1,800-2,000 level currently.

In page 22, WHEN TM IS VALUED TOO LOW ... we have TM kicking yesterday!! TM valued at RM3.05 by Bursa is below TM's value? It jumped 16% up the next day!! TM back to RM3.50 level now ... time to BUY? Hmmm ... Someone asked this question in RHB-forum yesterday and I thought of giving my 'opinions' but refrained. IT IS A NO BUY for me, unless you are short-term traders playing with the current news?

In page 24, TRANSMILE'S FUTURE IN THE BALANCE ... transmile giving some traders something to smile about recently. Transmile's stories were one of the best classic for manipulations of accounts!! Some who bought into this darling might get caught when its price DIVED. Guess from what price to what price? Check it out, man. It is one of the largest water-fall in KLSE, ok?

In page 30, SCOMI AIMS TO GROW MONORAIL BUSINESS ... well, the charts showed Scomi at RM1.12 and Scomi-eng at RM1.24. Scomi is traded at 30-35cents at the moment!! If you believe it could get back to RM1.20 level(400% upside), time to accumulate? My opinion : NO.

In page 32, Satyam to expand ICT talent pool ... sidetrack from KLSE. SATYAM ... another HUGE news in India. Do you read about the scandal? Yes, Satyam do have ICT businesses in Malaysia. We have Cyberjaya, u know.

In CAPITAL page, KLCI was shown inching up from 1267.65 to 1288.08 over a week. Hot stocks : AMMB at RM3.74, MSC at RM8.20 and Cycle and Carriage at RM2.50. Well, do you still see C&C around?

USD vs MYR at its low of 3.14. Currently it is at 3.65, ok?

In page 41, we have brokers' digest: AMMB at 3.58(BUY with TP 3.90), VADS at 5.90(BUY with TP 8.50 ... err ... VADS disappeared too, for newbies info), Tenaga at 6.75(BUY with TP 8.35), TGOffs at 2.10(BUY with TP 3.35), TM at 3.54(FULLY VALUED) and Imaspro at 1.34(BUY with TP 2.16). DO YOU BUY BECAUSE THEY SAID SO and HOLD TILL NOW? Oh my goodness!! Please CHECK the current price .. and HOW LONG do you think you could HOLD till it go back to your purchase price and are you STILL waiting for the TARGET PRICES?? Get real, please.

In page 46, INSIDER MOVES giving two charts. Gamuda at Rm3.36 and KNM at RM6.85(need to divide into 3, for newbies info). Gamuda currently at RM1.90+ and KNM at 0.40+.

9.05 am : Genting-CO and Commerz-CF ... new call-warrants? Hmm ... actively traded. Resorts moving back to 2.20 ... good support price to buy, and trade. But personally I wont get Resorts as its price movements is BORING!!

Genting-CM moving to 0.045 vs 0.050. Tho I only bought 25k units, I m still looking at it. Well, I will hold-on till it collapse!! Hmm ...

1.05 pm : HSI closed for lunch 100points lower. ALL my HK's babes in REDS. But TH REDS won this morning, ok? Hehe

I just added 0991.HK to my stalk list, will want to see it breaks the support at 3.25 and retrace below 3.00 before re-considering this POWER play. Hmm ...

2.15 pm : Last night I left a message at RHB-group message board regarding PBBank. Someone holding 2k units of PBBank at average 9.08. To me, it is a SELL. I m a chicken, as KLCI is rather shaky now, it will be hard to see this KLCI's babe to move further. If there is any rebound, SELL immediately, I would say. Of coz, it is merely an opinion from a novice llike me. Hope he don't take my words seriously and to SELL it now and say PBBank jump up to 9.20 next week(dont know HOW?), I will be blamed? No one could tell you WHAT counters will go UP or DOWN, ok? You need to monitor ... it is your money, anyway.

Breaking Benjamin - Dance With The Devil




In page 58, MY SAY by Arifin Abdul Latiff pointed out Price of Crude may go higher. It was at USD125 at that point, and sure to zoom up to surpassing USD140. Minusing off USD100, that is the current level.

Another one MY SAY by Manu Bhaskaran US dollar : The next shoe to drop? Well, we know NOW that USD reaching its peak against most of the currencies of the world!! USD/Yen at 97 level now!!
11.25 pm : DOW up 90 points at the moment. LVS shoot up 20% in first hour trade!! Such a trade could only be seen in US in such volatility of markets!!

TEH

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

DOW rally to go up 200+ points(Bernarke commented that the nationalisation of banks) but it will be only a short rebound before DOW going below 7k. S&P up 4% this morning.

So, basically we might see Hand Seng to rebound today too. Note that Nikkei going into its newest lows, and SET diving to new low too(political turmoil). How about KLSE? If you FAILED to notice that KLSE is the only one standing TALL in green(when all in reds!!) with another LAST MINUTE shoot-up, then you are NOT supposed to be in KLSE. Mind you, I m not in KLSE but I noticed that in the midst of my busy-ness. In short, I m sounding WARNING to those STILL in KLSE(for whatever excuses), be prepare for a dive this few weeks to come!! KLSE could no longer hang on there. They artificially support the KLSE as Najib moving up as PM and he is the finance minister. Need to give him FACE? Hmm ... using MONEY to buy face is plain stupidity to me. Well, it is tax-payers money and our EPF, anyway. Nothing to lose!!

Spot Gold at 960 level, some corrections here. Oil at USD40 level. Shanghai and ShenZhen ... CHINA equity markets has been shooting up while majority of global markets moving south. I m thinking of HKSE ... will the surge in China markets rub some on HKSE? Hmm ...

I read about the over-optimism in STEEL companies in China of over-production for past months(due to gov's stimulus for construction). That definitely will hurt my Ansteel. So, I might want to pull out of it for a while(if there is a rebound later on) and move in again for Ansteel some time later. TIMING becoming crucial as I m still learning ...

By the way, I acquired my THIRD holdings yesterday, bought China Power at 0.345. Hehe. Normally in my shot, I will place only about RM5k. If I need to accumulate more(or average down), I will shoot more. I m looking to grab my fourth HKSE's babe later in MINING. Do you consider this as DIVERSIFYING? I hv Alibaba(e-commerce), Ansteel(steel), China Power(energy) and ... now MINING? Hmm ... That is a total of 4 eggs in 4 baskets!! Haha

听妈妈的话 by Jay <--- my current ringing tone. Haha.

10.20 am : HKSE 100+ up, AB and CP up but not AS.

10.50 am : AB at 7.10, AS at 7.00 and CP at 0.360. TM in KLSE making a noise this morning. I don't know why. LionDiv closed at 0.29 yesterday, stalking on it to go lower. KNM up slightly to 0.41 at the moment.

11.20 am : I was thinking of KNM ... yesterday someone placed 100k units of KNM at 0.40, which is RM40k ... and if the person selling this morning at 0.41o, he could earn a cool Rm1k for one day trade. Perhaps I should focus in such a trade too, but I m lack of funds to do such. BUY at resistance and sell the next days?

1.50 pm : AS touched a low of 6.73, to close for lunch at 6.85. Technically it is a SELL. "Bad news" regarding steel-sector in China two days ago making many fleeing the stock. So, I hv in my mind to average down instead of CUT off. Two main reasons in my belief 1. HKSE will STILL rally upwards before it move lower in coming weeks/months. 2. A positive quarterly report will be expected in coming months, and will spur more buyings into its stock.

Ansteel stock price fell from 9.00 plus in recent peak, and getting it at 6.90 today will be a good buy. I bought it days ago at 7.40, and will average it if it touches 6.00?

4.40 pm : AB at 7.18, AS at 6.89 and CP at 0.35. HSI up 200+ points.

10.40 pm : DOW opens lower ...

TEH

Tuesday, February 24, 2009

2.50 am : DOW down by 140 points to hit 11-year low. S&P 500 will be going below 700 soon, will KLSE move below 700 too? We shall see ...

中国话by SHE



7.50 am : ASX 200 opens lower(by 40 points) as expected. GE at 8.85 now ... I m tracking GE(Buffett bought this one) as my US-wind energy stock. There is no bottom for Charles Dow's index at the moment, and definite GE will move lower, pulling DOW together with it. There are arguements that GE(or GM or those ailing banks) should not be taken into DOW. It does not reflect well on actual US Economies? Someone suggested APPLE. Kraft taken in, but many more have to be taken out!!

How about KLSE? Well, we have about 100 stocks constitute to our KLCI but Bursa reducing it to 30 in July(I think so). I think it is a good idea. Afterall, these 'heavy-weights' are KLCI movers. To support KLCI, they just need to support SIME, IOI, Maybank and such.(Recently I saw AMMB in EPF interest at RM2.50 averagely). These are EPF and local funds fav, anyway. I shared with JL on WHY these funds buying into these counters(and WONT look for better investment opportunities!!) and WHY our pathetic EPF(one of the largest fund in the WORLD!!) not doing well. Are you sure they are INDEPENDENT of those gov's cronies? Hmm ... smell fishy. Perhaps EPF will employ me to invest the money one day? Wait till I get better than their fund-managers. Actually those fund-managers are hand-tied. They are also lip-tied. In fact, they are fully-tied!! Haha. I m imagining them being mummified. Haha. Funny.

Currently I do not have much focus on KLSE, so basically I do not know much what is going-on to comment about. My readings include US financials&banks bailout(nationalisation issue), Obama stimulus package and its distributions, East Europe crisis deepen and highlighted, USD strengthening, China's stimulus with the hike in China's SSEC, plenty of China ecnomics news with many more companies added to my list, O&G news world-wide with an intention to BUY my third HKSE's babe, Gold and precious metals going up and taken as a safe-haven ... and many more than I could not really digest just yet. No ... I m not an analyst, but I m looking into INVESTMENT opportunities. I will view myself as an BUSINESSMAN, just like my idol Buffett said. Yes, I do listen to him.

Focus or Diversify?

Many books asking us to DIVERSIFY. Don't put your eggs in an basket. Look ... I only have 2 eggs, anyway. How many baskets could I place? So, I DO NOT agree with diversifying, tho it surely reduce the RISK. I hv mentioned ... it is only RISKY if you dont know-how. If you are buying a stock like a lottery ticket, and praying that the price will go up!! These are aunties/uncles I called them. They are NOT supposed to be in market but without them, we could not profit from their greediness(or stupidity, rather) and ignorance, right? Markets need them to move up and down!! And 'luckily'(or unfortunately if you prefer) we have 80% of those in KLSE like them!!

For example, many BUYing KNM without knowing much about it!! KNM = O&G? How about its businesses? etc etc ... to comparing its peers. If I mention Dialog, they don't even know much about Dialog!! How about Ramunia or Saag? What are the similarities and differences? KNM at 0.40, Ramunia at 0.35 and Saag at 0.20? Dialog much more expensive?? GOSH ... you don't look at stocks based on their traded-stock prices, do you? I hope not!!

So, do you FOCUS in buying only KNM(as O&G sector) or diversify to buy into AMMB for banking, Gamuda for construction, Proton for auto(must I make fun of Proton?), and Maybulk for shipping? Not forgetting Tenaga for utility-defensive stock, MPHB for its divendend or add in LionInd for steel sector? TELL ME ... how much funds(eggs) do you have to buy all those listed? Are you forgetting Resorts, the KLSE darling? How about Transmile(used to be darling!) or Topglove for rubber-product? Are you forgetting SPSetia in properties or Asiatic/IOI in plantation?

By now, I m confused. What do they mean by diversifying? That is only talking about equity market!! How about FD, Unit-trust, Savings, Investment-linked insurance, Bonds ... and buying into property too? Oh my ... you are so RICH, do you really need to DIVERSIFY so much your funds??

To me, I will prefer to FOCUS. Money in EQUITY market now as equity markets moving into its bottom(not yet, tho). FOCUS only in HKSE(and China) at the moment ... and only in SECTORS in-play with huge prospects. FOCUS as a businessman, to invest into a good counter while continue to look for opportunities. RISKS in equity markets are REAL but we need to know-how, then it is managable.

As an investor, we need to have longer time-frame. To me it is about 3-5 years. So, I m in no hurry to jump into US market or whatever yet. But I started HKSE with a stable Bank of China while playing a PUNT into Genesis Energy. Sold off two, and getting Alibaba and Ansteel while thinking of my third one(Energy or Mining?). I m in experimental stage, actually. Hmm ...

8.45 am : KNM will open lower again. I m still q-ing for 0.39(might think of lower!!)

GoldenAgri at 0.285 now. Can start to look into it when it reaches back to 0.265

KLSE : Besides KianJoo and Transmile to play with, we have EPIC and AZRB joining into the game!! Punters like these counters now.

Hang Seng going to be in REDS today. Seat-belt, we are going down ...

AB and AS at same level of 7.00. Hmm ... HSI losing 358points now.

AB at 6.90 but AS going down to 6.80. Hmm ... HSI losing 500 points now!! Time to BUY.

HSI down 460 points in morning trade. AB at 6.89 and AS at 6.90. I m ready to average down, but at much lower price, of coz.

To JL : Remember "China Power" I told you that I m stalking? It has shoot up more than 10% in two days so far!! Hmm ... too late to buy? Hmm ...

Lunch with my ex-student, DK

This is one very bright student I taught two yrs ago. He is doing his 'doctor' degree and WILL becoming a doctor!! Since he read my blog, he wants to learn about INVESTING. Well, at such a young age, it is GOOD to start!! Being a student, I will prefer if he STUDY to get the degree first, work for experience and security WHILE learning about investing/trading. So, I shared with him that we need to place FOUNDATION in our education!!

For example, we studying 5 yrs to get a doctor degree, and then need clinical practices for years, gaining experience and confidence to become a good doctor!! Ask JL about it. Hehe. To build a tall building, an engineer needs to work on the foundation and ground work!! NO short cut, ok?

Similarly, we are learning to invest. Will you JUMP into the market without any knowledge much about businesses, economies, stock markets etc etc? MANY do, unfortunately. But a good investor should be patient enough to learn, start small ... and yes, experience it along the way. No short CUT unless you want to get cuts!!

So, I advised DK to read Economic books too, read THE EDGE paper, read any books related to MONEY(RDPD too) ... that is one part. The second part is READ about mental strength. How to increase our mental capabilities and also think positive. Books related to positive thinking, menatl power etc etc. These are TWO BASIC related books I will recommend IF anyone(beginners) want to succeed in investing!! Including myself, of coz.

I think it is ALL depending on our purpose being in the market. For those THOUGHT market is a place to get RICH fast, I think in BEAR market they are regretting into markets in the first place.

KNM : Someone bought 200k units follow by 100k units at 0.40!! Did you noticed that?

9.35 pm : Busy ... done with my classes, and time to watch DOW moving lower? HSI lost 376 points with AB at 6.95 and AS at 6.90.Technically AS shown a SELL signal but I will ride this one on and see how are things.

TEH

Monday, February 23, 2009

USD787b stimulus package will be made known to public? http://www.recovery.gov/ Cool ... such transparency will NOT be allowed in Malaysia, as our gov needs to pocket some into their PERSONAL pockets. From a 'small' officer to a top ranked Head/Minister, we have levels of personels to 'eat' into whatever $$$ pumped in, errr ... to revitalise the country's ailing economy(or their ailing cronies who know NOTHING about businesses?). Well, don't worry ... we have BPR to guard OUR public money. Hehe ... yeah, right. THINK again and I will act stupid.

Anyway, I enjoyed reading about the interview with Dr Doom, Marc Faber. Hehe. I think I m greatly influenced by these personalities, DOOM and GLOOM. Or perhaps I see them as much more LOGICAL than many gov officers or analysts, who are expecting those stimulus could REALLY work, and change the economies downturn upside down with immediate effects!! Yes, he mentioned GOLD(precious metal) rush at the moment, he mentioned Asian BLUE CHIPS, commodities to have a STRONG rebound potential. USD is NOT sustainable(more reason that I m NOT going into US market just yet).

Read more from the latest of The Edge(thanks JL) page 37.

In the last interview question they asked : Any particular financial product or asset class that you would recommend for investors?

Faber : Avoid private banking departments. Gradually accumulate high-quality shares in Asia. Don't trust any investment bankers, brokers and investment advisers. They are in the business of making money for themselves, not for you!!

In a way, he is speaking my mind ... and I do listen to him. Yes, I m very selective with those I want to listen to. Then, I will do my own home-work, use my own common-logical sense(Maths people are more analytical) to see if that piece of IDEA/INFORMATION suit me best. We are all different ... so, it is OK to have differing views but it is NOT OK to be in denial. You can't DENY we are in BEAR MARKET. ECONOMIES WILL NOT recover in such a short period of time and MARKETS(KLSE) will move much further down. My bet : KLSE will go below 800 easily "soon".

JL : How do you choose a stock to BUY? What are your criteria?

This is a VERY good question but need much elaboration. There are simply too many criteria which NOT applied equally for different sectors, different stocks!! You can't compare an apple with an orange, so to speak.

For a start, I read A LOT about KLSE and Malaysia biz-news. I have about 200+ companies profile, their AR and businesses, their prices&volume charts, their historical prices(10 years) ... and I do READ about local/regional economic news etc etc.

Then, I will zoom into SECTOR. Let me take "Plantation" as an example. When CPO went down from 4000+ to 2000, I started to cover plantation-sector. I listed in my blog HERE stocks that I m stalking. Stalking to me means = Get to know their businesses(AR), who own the company, their subsidaries,profit and cash-flows, % of foreign funds and local funds ... right to comparing of their PE values with their peers. Say, SIME, IOI, KLK and Asiatic!! I done these one or two months BEFORE I even bought into any of them!!

So, IOI reported to be losing $$$ thru forex, its price zoom down. Time to grab some!! Obviously it rebounded. I bought IOI the second time ... sold 2-days later for 20cents gain!! Both are of DIFFRENT situations and different strategies!! I bought IOI-cj in Nov/Dec with totally different play!!

Asiatic ... I like this babe. I gained some 20cents before and it is STILL in my stalk-list tho I m out of KLSE! Yes, I m still looking into PLANTATION as it will rebound once the demand starts to show. If there is one counter for my plantation play, I will but Asiatic. Another will be HSPlant.

SECTOR-play is my first answer. Money moves from a sector to another. Mind you, many foreign funds do NOT like KLSE. Bursa failed to attract more foreign investors(also Thanks to our clowning politicains).

Next ... it is NOT randomly any stock from the selected sector, of coz. "Popular" stocks that attract buyers!! Yes, VOLUME is the fuel. It is to buy/sell without much problem. You will not hear me speak about "L&G" or ASB? (By the way, ASB is a listed company, not Amanah Saham Bumi).

It is a BEAR market, but we might see rebounds and short rallies. So, to play into such rallies, we may want to use some TA. That will be my third point. If say KLSE in short-rally from 800+ to 900+ level, this will be the time to BUY with a readiness to CLEAR. Take profit and run. Hide till next rebound(unless you are day-traders or play-contra). Then, you are actually applying a different strategy here, ok?

The fourth point will be NEWS. Some stocks play on news --- for example privatisation news(Halim the latest). Astro at rm2.00 ... say, RUMOURS spreading that AK going to take it private and willing to pay RM2.50, then BUY at 2.00+ ... and take profit when it moves up 10-20%, irrespective whether the rumours are true or not. Another example is that WATER in news -- from my 200+ stalk list, I could point out 3 to 5 counters which might be in play. Yes, I do play into such 'rumours' or news before. Hehe. It is risky, tho ... we are playing someone who have the similar motives. It is becoming a testing ground!! Privatisation news of Airasia (RM1.32?!!) still fresh in our mind.

If you have stalked "enough" companies, you have widen your choices. Also, if you have learnt "enough" strategies and apply it correctly, you could 'play' more trades using diffrent strategies. If you could UNDERSTAND the whole mechanism of the market, definitely you have the edge to fight another day. No crying over spill milk, no BUTs or IFs. I m reminding myself ... don't worry, who am I to remind others, right?

p/s : To JL ... do start small, BUY a stock soon. Ask yourself many questions before you get a counter. Ask WHY. And continue to READ. Honestly, you are doing much better than me when I was a beginner! Haha. HINT : Let KLSE to go down a few days, then grab a GOOD high-volume stock which go down with KLSE, and wait to clear during the rebound!! If you gain small, that will be a good start!!

8.55 am : Q-ing for KNM at 0.39, and KNM will open in RED this morning.

10.05 am : SGX was in red in the opening but going up slightly now. HKSE will be mixed, with O&G and Mining poise to go up, others will open slightly lower. We shall see ...

10.20 am : HSI up 200+points but my AB(6.90) and AS(7.10) in reds.

11.20 am : HSI up 300 points now. AB at 7.05(green) but AS at 7.20(red). HKD vs MYR at 0.4735, up again from last week.

2.50 pm : STI up 14 points now. I did not get my Capitaland at 1.90 as it touches the low of 1.96. I hv cancelled my queue for KNM too. JL, I told you that the queue for KNM at 0.40 will be EXTREMELY high last night, remember? So, no point placing at 0.390 as I won't get it anyway. These are punters!! KNM is a betting ground now, nothing to do with FA, ok?

Yes, I do observe that LionDiv moving to 0.30 too. But currently I do not have fund(and focus) in KLSE anymore. So, I shall give others a skip.

5.35 pm : I was so busy today to monitor the market and saw Transmile surged up!! Hmm ... such a move is what a day-trader will like. Too bad that I was away most of the time.

HSI up and breached 13100 level. AB at 7.12 and AS at 7.19 ... hmm ... the surge in Hang Seng didnt help my babes much, tho. STI up 35.75points. G13 was at 0.41, but closed higher at 0.43. I was q-ing at 0.39 in the morning! haha.

KLCI at 887 ... in red!! Need to remind that trade, not HOLD. KLSE will move much further down once Najib go up. Genting at 3.54, moving lower. So, my advice NOT to average down just yet(if u r so-called STUCKED) should be heeded. WAIT till Najib go up, as WAIT patiently for KLSE to move below 800 will pay off. Genting will be around Rm3 by then? I don't know.

TEH

Sunday, February 22, 2009

China : The internet usage in China has increased in such a high rate. Imagine if one billion people have an access to internet, many internet-related companies will boom. E-commerce has increased in China and Taiwan too.

2.15 am : Sam's Blackburn just equalised against MU. I m looking into charts. One of it is G13, where it is reaching its support at 0.410. With weaknesses around, it might go below 0.40 level and looking for 0.38 for next immediate support. Hence, I will place a queue at 0.375 tmr.

C31 moving to its low too, and queueing at 1.90 will be a good level. So, these will be my two queues in SGX on Monday.

2899.hk to be queued at 3.80-4.00, while I m still looking at AB and AS. I might accumulate more of AB at 6.00, instead of cutting it off. There are still downside in HKSE(and AB too), so I might be taking a higher risk than I should. We shall see about the trade on Monday. Will there be any technical rebound anytime soon?

AB : Share buybacks of 5millions units at HKD6.94 to HKD 7.45, according to HKEx.

Learning Corner : Trading vs Driving

I like to equate Trading as Driving ... we learn to read road signs, then we go to driving-school and use their 'old' cars for a test drive with a 'guru'. We learn about changing of gear and some basics around at an empty open space, before we are allowed to drive out into main roads. Even that, we will be driving cautiously and slowly. We are LEARNERS ... some may be too adventurous and ended up in the other side of the road or ravine!! On the other hand, we have some EXTRA cautious that they have fears written all over their face!

Try to recall HOW you first time on the wheel ... you took your on-the-road(with a standard $$$ to be given to the driving school and JPJ if you want to pass one-go. It is a standard package in Malaysia. Everyone of us KNOW these practices, except BPR or JPJ or Transport ministry. Our Datuk Ling answered in an interview some donkey years ago 'live' in Tv3 news "IS IT? I never know of such practices. But I assure you that I will ask my officers to investigate the validity of such claims!!". Haha ... ) test ... then, OK ... you passed finally!! Yippee ... your 'rich' father bought you a car as you 21st birthday gift. You started to show-off to your friends and to IMPRESS them, you pushed you driving skills further ... you know you are RISKING your life, others lives and you precious new car!! Don't scratch my car, u idiot! Hmm ...

Think again ... you started to know how to change GEARs without even think about it. It is AUTOMATIC ... you don't think about the clutch or even looking into your rear/side mirrors. You drive comfortably. Ever wonder WHY?

We learned to park our car, side-parking ... rear parking, illegal parking, double/triple parking. we learned NOT to pay parking tickets(many donkeys in KK do not pay parking tickets and PROUD to announce it to others!!). We learned all we can learn about driving a CAR.

Then, we plan to change our CAR. WHY? Our reasons(or excuses) varied from showing-off to more comfort. We can even drive faster, we claimed(stupid human, you can't drive 150-200km/h in KK road, ok?).

For safety purposes, we should check the 'health' of our car. The battery, water, tyre... etc etc ... especially if we are planning to travel long distance. Besides the car, we need to check on the DRIVER. Is the driver under influence of alcohol, sleepy or ?? Next, we will look into the weather -- is it heavy down pour? Should we postpone our trip or should we be more careful when we are driving under such situation?

Well, if we are going to a place, we more or less know where we are heading to, right? Which roads should we be using? WHY? Is that road will jam-up during that hour? If it is heavily raining, will that particular road be flooded? Many things LOGICALLY in our mind IF WE KNOW-HOW to drive. We will plan, we will think LOGICALLY base on our driving experience. Are we driving in the dark? Is our headlights working well? Get what I mean?? Nothing can replace experience and knowledge!!

FEARS and RISKS

When we started to drive, without a licence we will be in GREAT FEARS. Afraid of police, afraid that our parents found out, afraid of accidents due to our lack of experience in driving, afraid of ... FEARS as we don't know-how and supposed to be NOT driving!!

The RISKS were very high, and it could be too high for you to take. You could be blaming anyone at all for your 'faults'.

If you know-how, the risk will be managable. You drive without FEARS, tho the risks are still there. We are insured, anyway. Without EXPERIENCE, HOW are you going to learn to drive safely even in bad conditions?

Take trading/investing as a WHOLE proocess of driving. If you are a new driver, THINK logically what you SHOULD do, rather than what you WANT to do or what others tell you to do. If you are an experienced driver, then THINK whether you have done the best for your driving and is there any more room for improvements? THINK as a driver!!

Happy driving. Hope you will reach your destination safely.

TEH

Saturday, February 21, 2009

Chinese Temple and Garden : A place I will love to be.

Chinese Painting : Being a Chinese, I see these painting as most artistic and beautiful.


Chinese Girl : Being a chinese, I see Chinese girls are beautiful. Hehe

3 am : DOW losing 160 points, hitting 11-year low. Will it be too late to pull out on Monday? Hmm ...

5.55 am : DOW lost another 100 points and GE at 9.19, so attractive.

10.30 am : As I was looking at the global equity charts, I could see most showing weaknesses and moving down, gradually. Perhaps it is time to move out of market soon, I thought. So, I m looking at HKSE at 12,700 level at the moment descending from the recent high of 15,000+. My holdings(AB and AS) ae slightly below my purchase prices, but with the further weakening of MYR vs HKD, I could cut off with a slight bruise. That is playing in my mind at the moment. Yeah, I m STILL perssimistic about equity markets. I will keep my money in HKD, instead of changing it back to MYR which expecting to depreciate further.

At times, we really need to be realistic. We can't expect a bull-run when economies and businesses are not doing well. Recession deepen and investors fleeing the equity markets(hiding in GOLD ... it touches 1000 now). Silver up too. So, exposure to equity markets are quite risky at the moment. If you are in KLSE, you are kinda 'safe'. But, from what I hv observed in HKSE, the volatilities are so high that you really need a strong-heart to look at its movements. You could gain 20% in a week or lose that amount too in that short period of time.
Generally, US market is a high-risk for investors at the moment. Confidence-crisis is much more devastating than economic crisis in markets. Many companies are filing for Chapter 11

JPMorgan raises holdings in Ansteel

Feb. 19, 2009 (China Knowledge) - JPMorgan Chase & Co has raised its shareholding in Angang Steel Company Ltd (Ansteel)<000898><347>, a subsidiary of Anshan Iron and Steel Group Corp (Ansteel Group) to 11.16% from 10.96% on Feb. 12, according to the bourse operator Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEx)<388>.

On Feb. 12, JPMorgan Chase acquired 2.152 million H-shares in Ansteel at an average price of HK$8.57 apiece. Earlier, on Feb. 5, JPMorgan Chase bought 2.158 million H-shares in Ansteel for HK$7.51 apiece on average.

Meanwhile, Ansteel plans to issue no more than RMB 10 billion in corporate bonds to replenish working capital and to repay bank loans. The plan has been approved by the company's shareholders, and is waiting for approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC).

8.oo pm : Another Mad-off case? Stanford? Hmm ... This is another billionaire(with 6 private jets!!) living on others greed and keep their monies for his spending!! Cool ...

Yes, as a key word ... i will say "IF YOU KNOW-HOW", then you could reduce the RISK tremendously. Seriously, it is matter of CONFIDENCE. If we don't know anything much about markets BUT you are in markets, then you think the RISK is very high. During the looong bull-run, when even aunties/uncles were making money from market and if they are NOT GREEDY ... then, they should have been VERY relieved that they do not live the day to see such a huge BEAR taking away the profits. BUT, unfortunately to say ... many of them are still STUCK in markets as they THOUGHT their profits could go much further.

Many stocks are cheap in valuation ... those coming in the market this year or next(JL, u r lucky as market in BAD conditions and you are NOT exposed yet!!) could be at the best of opportunities to pick some GOOD investments. BUT, still .... IF YOU KNOW HOW. You can't be serious to shoot all your bullets NOW, say buying GENTING at 3.60?

Many dividend-yield companies might cut their dividends this year or so. That was written in THE STAR today. So, which stocks should we park our money in KLSE? Almost NONE at the moment. WHY? HEY, I am saying again ... 890 level is ARTIFICIALLY supported, and in the bear rally at the moment, BEAR could come back soon to take over. Are we ready for the dive?

While I know roughly most of the listed companies in KLSE main-board(due to daily readings of biz-news for full one year!!), I can't say the same for the HK's babes. It is about 20-stocks in my stalking list, but mostly on the surface. There are simply TOO many around(and you don't know which one worth looking into : Thanks RU for giving me few hints) ... also, many prices have moved 50-100% since NOV 2008. These companies are REALLY very huge comparing to Malaysia's companies. And since HKSE is an international global market, the fluctuations and its volatilities are expected. I m still testing the water there, and to learn to pick a good stock to invest in. With limited funds, I could NOT diversify into different sectors. So, logically I m choosing those I hv read and look into its prospects. Few more good signs giving me confidence with the company.

Alibaba and Ansteel are two very good companies. At 7.00+ level at the moment, it could easily doubled its value once the economy(China in particular) recovers. Stimulus going into SME(where Alibaba's businesses are related to) and STEEL industry is in demand now as the stimulus going into constuctions. Cement-companies too, of coz.

As precious metals are in higher demand, those mining companies will benefit for the rally. So, I hv 4 mining companies in my stalk-list. How about O&G, a sector i do like? Petrochiina? Cnooc or Sinopec?

I hv not gone into any property stock yet. Will start with what "RU" mentioned(Thx). Unless I could find another good stock to HOLD, I m 'happy' with AB and AS at the moment.

TEH

Friday, February 20, 2009

DOW downed about 100 points, going lower each day, waiting for a huge DIVE. Then, the whole massive dives of global equity markets going to materialise. It is like a 'time-bomb', and taking a risk if you are into markets. I m 70% expose at the moment ... might need to clear AliBaba soon. One day it is TECHNICALLY a buy-call, the next day it is TECHNICALLY a sell-call?? That is TA, a confusing way to look for a buy/sell signal. I m still trying to grasp its concepts. But, I m not good in it(I m majoring in Maths and ...err ... one of the better ones in Maths in Malaysia, u know).

Wilmar at 2.86 now. GI at 0.425. KNM at 0.415(I m q-ing at 0.390, lowering it as I m NOT serious of getting it, anyway). KLCI in REDS, with low volume.

Peter Schiff said "If you are small people, buy daily ITEMS ... like shaving cream, tooth-paste, non-perishable food ... stock-up!!" Well, USD going to collapse and things will get very expensive. Putting MONEY IN BANKS will de-value the value(currency depreciation and inflation too). Get yourself OUT of USA. He likes ASIA ... mentioned Singapore, Hong Kong, AUZ and NZ, Japan. Guess that is WHY I m not in US market, just yet. I will certainly be patient to WAIT for the time to come. In the mean time, China market is shooting up(30% + now) as many more pouring their monies into China markets. GOLD rush is on too ... 1USD = 3.65MYR now. Notice that? Supports for USD could NOT hold for long, so I m on Peter Schiff side.

HSI support at 12,400-12,500. HSI is pointing to lower

Peter Schiff Feb03 09 CNBC - The Kudlow Report pt 1/2



Peter Schiff Feb03 09 CNBC - The Kudlow Report pt 2/2

HSI opens 300+points lower!! Wow. We shall hold tight to our seats.

AB moving below 7.10 now and AS at 7.40.

HSI losing 240+ points but AB supported well at 7.25 and AS at 7.35.

Genting going below 3.60 now. I will look again when Genting go down below 3.50 in few days time. Or will it be sooner? Then, look into Genting at 3.20.

KNM moving to 0.410 vs 0.415 level now. We shall see it inching down too ... while support at 0.395. So, I will continue to queue at 0.390. Take it or leave it? Hmm ...

HSI lost 321points in the morning trade. Most in REDS. Any rebound later? Hmm ...

Ab at 7.18 and AS at 7.27, both below my purchase prices. SELL SELL SELL!! No no ... BUY BUY BUY??!! That is markets! Hehehe

2.50 pm : GI is at 0.415 vs 0.420 now. I shall look into it IF it goes below 0.39(like KNM). STI losing almost 30 points and HSI losing 300 points. AB at 7.20 and AS at 7.30.

3.45 pm : KLCI lost 10 points(shorting it could gain Rm50 x 10 = Rm500?), while HK's babes in my stock list(about 20+ now) are all in REDS. Terrible ... AB at 7.10 level now.


4.35 pm : Terrible ... HSI lost 324 points to close near to 12,700 level. AB at 7.02. I 'lost' 7.5% so far.
TEH

Thursday, February 19, 2009

DOW unchanged(up only 3points) ... US currency strengthen further with Obama announcements to 'save' the housing crisis(with 270b). Crude oil at USD34 and Gold up to USD978 now.

China Power Investment Corp(CPI Corp) : I spent about 2 hours reading about China's Energy and Power companies and related stocks that listed in HKSE. I m still 'struggling' to find TIME to read such a huge data and tonnes of development news. It could drown anyone with its scale. I m trying to breathe above the surface level. Go to : http://eng.cpicorp.com.cn/

Yes, I m doing my research of Green-Power, trumpetted by Obama. China, the up-coming power house in global economy, will be all to watch. Its consumption(non-domestic) of energy has increased exponentially over the past 20 years!! The transfer of technologies(solar, wind, waves, nuke, hydro ...) from the western to CHINA has been in its fastest rate over the decades.

WHY would I be so interested with it? I m NOT an engineer, looking for opportunities(but I have suggested to some of my students to take up green-power related engineering courses!!) ... I m not an analyst or am I working for a power-research company? I m an INVESTOR!! So, i seek opportunities and could see HUGE potential for GREEN energy concepts and its implimentations in near future. CHINA(and US of coz ... once the global economies recover) ... the fast developing country, with huge population(and exodus of rural populations to urban area) ... could self-sustain their consumption of energy through integrated power-energy plans. Billions are being invested in this industry!!

So, I believe for a long-term investor ... we should be looking for future POTENTIAL, to invest into a 'tiny' company that will make a HUGE impact in the industry. That is my main focus at the moment. It can be a company listed in HKSE, NYSE or ASX. I will be glad once I learn how to go to China stock-exchanges(Shanghai or ShenZhen). Welcome to the world of POWER. Military power, Economic power, Nuclear power ... stock-exchange power?? Am I em-powered? Hehe

KLCI holding on to 897-level while STI moves 20points lower in early trades. HSI is pointing down too ... hmm .... BTW, GI at 0.425 vs 0.430 now. PHEW!! I sold at 0.445 days ago. #sweat#

I m accumulating more AB later IF it moving lower ... while thinking of my ENERGY stock for my new BUY. Hmm ...

KLSE : What??! Alam closed at 0.685 yesterday! Another PHEW!! I bought 0.70, sold 0.715 just days ago, u know. I m seeing weakness in KNM, and brace yourself for it to go below 0.40, as I m still q-ing for 0.395. Hmm ...

HSI losing about 100+ points and I just bought more of AB, bringing my average to 7.20 now. AS surging up at the moment to 7.45. I hv been monitoring 2357.HK for some time now.

10.20 am : AB moving down to touch 7.30 but AS up to touch 7.60.

11.20 am :AB moving up to 7.40 and AS up to 7.65 level.

12.40 pm : AB move down to 7.25 and AS stay at 7.60 level.

Peter Schiff on USD : A potential collapse of USD?

Peter Schiff on the Stock Shotz pt 1/3



Peter Schiff on the Stock Shotz pt 2/3

Peter Schiff on the Stock Shotz pt 3/3

12.50 pm : Do listen to this man(part 2/3). Interesting and I like him, man. Hehe. Americans borrowed TRILLIONS from Saudi, China, Russia ... everywhere in the world to BUY Plasma TV and SUV. Haha. He is cool ... yes, US gov is POSTPONING the PAIN. Generally, being HUMANs, we like to POSTPONE pain, that is WHY we are in deeper trouble!!

WHY postponing the pain? Sell at a loss is painful.

I could give you ONE good example of postponing PAIN in markets. Take KLSE as example : Many bought "expensive" stocks last year(JAN08 ... you are in the deepest water, APR08 ... you are drowning and OCT08 ... I hope you could hang-on there). MANY STILL HOLDING to them.

So, the question to these INVESTORS will be : How long could you POSTPONE the pain?

It is like you are NOT having much a choice. I chopped off my limbs last April(when I bought a few in Jan and Feb).OUCH!! It was VERY painful, of coz. I was licking my wounds while still 'exercising' for quicker recovery. Then, I chopped-off a few more fingers in AUG08. OUCH!! OUCH!! Can I postpone these PAINS, please? I yelled. But, I cut-off ... anyway. I was limping for months, honestly. Then, when I see myself recovering well(I was very discipline to follow doctor's advices, frequenting the theraphy sessions, etc etc) and started to join in the competition again in NOV/DEC08. The short rally helped me to recover faster and by JAN09, I m fully recovered!!

I left the playground, to go into international competitions. I might get some cuts here and there, but I know my recovered limbs are stronger ...

So, going back to the MANY still REFUSING to accept that they are still HOLDING on to the papers!! What are they waiting for, actually? A BULL-RUN in this year of OX? Come on, I was joking, ok?

Today, KLCI at 900 level ... been days KLCI artifically supported in the last hour of trading!!. Did you all watch THAT before you even think of market is bullish now? Many are punters playing with contra and day-traders swarming the platform. MRCB, UEMLand, Landmark(??), Equine etc etc. Look ... are you going to BUY KNM at 0.42 now to HOLD(forever? I hope so).

KLSE is going down SOON in March(Najib go up, KLSE go down, ok?). We have headlines like 'nude pictures' or sex-DVD. We have frogs being bought over to JUMP JUMP for millions(under the nose of BPR), we have Sultans trying to exercise their power, also we have serial-rapist in a prowl? My goodness!! I did not read local news for months and that is what I got to hear? Hahaahaha ... I m laughing, cynically.

MYR will depreciate vs SGD or HKD. That is also one of the reason I m moving away from KLSE. I posted the HKD vs MYR yesterday to be shared. What do you see? You NEED to know economics, know WHERE the money is moving before you decide to go into equity markets. GOLD up to 980 now. Do you know WHY? Are you following these movements and see them as indicator?

US market have NOT reach the bottom. KLSE certainly(IN MY OPINION) have not reached the bottom. At 900-level, Tenaga at RM6, SIME at RM5.50 ... to KLK at RM10 are expensive. I know I have to remind you that you are STILL holding to those stocks that you bought 20-70% above the current level. TOO PAINFUL to release, right? Brace yourself as BAD NEWS ... KLSE will go below the support level of 800 points!! Guess the price of Tenaga, Sime or KLK then? Do you think KNM is safe at 0.42?? Hmm ... Genting at 3.60 and Resorts at 2.25 level now. CHEAP? Be patient as it will go CHEAPER(I m still stalking Resorts, on behalf of my bro-in-law. I m going to charge him 20% rate of his profit for timing for him!!). Those STILL BUYING and HOLDING, sorry to say ... we are in total opposite direction!!

To an e-mail : Genting at RM3.60 is NOT cheap. I don't wish too elaborate further. Learn to look at KLSE as a whole rather than eat-n-sleep with Genting. So, DO NOT average down just yet. Many bought much more expensive than your RM4.80, ok? If I were you, I will CHOP it off. That is ME. I do not like to delay pain ... I take PAIN. Then, I want the scar as a reminder. I want lessons. And take it from there to be stronger. Again, that is ME. Many prefer to delay PAIN. That is what Peter Schiff said!!

AB closed lower(intrady low) at 7.25 ... not so good for my AB. Hmm ... but AS up and closed higher at 7.58. Hmm ...

TEH

Wednesday, February 18, 2009

BUSH ---> OBAMA

12.05 am : DOW recovers a little but still negative 250points. AIG at 0.80 level. Anyone PUNT into this cheap stock?

12.50 am : Gold up to 970 now, Crude Oil below 35.

1.15 am : DOW down 260points ... we shall see markets falling. Brace yourself. Night.

7.10 am : DOW finally lost around 300 points, testing the NOV low. In KLSE, its NOV low level was at 800 ... so, will it dive down 100 points later in panic-selling? Hmmm ... If you noticed for the past few days, KLCI was PUSHED-UP it the last half hour of trading!! Some invicible hands are supporting the KLSE, NOT allowing it to drastically move lower, but you surely could see weaknesses in almost every counters(except some punters counters!) and yes, the warning to SELL is over. It is up to us to gauge how bad KLSE will re-acts towards the current political unstability(quoting Bloomberg), how BAD the 1Q reports will be and seeing Malaysia going into recession, officially.

Shanghai index was down yesterday too, as many shivering in fears as more BAD economic data are OUT. Japan finance minister resigned. Will China cut the rates again soon? Hmm ... many things clustering up in my mind, that I could only imagine what will happen later on HKSE. HSI lost 300 points yesterday but mining stocks hold up well. REDS all across the board.

GoldenAgri lost its glitter yesterday to closed at 0.275 ... I will consider it again if it touches 0.25.
OSK : Charges from HK is HKD100 per trade(or 0.1%) and local is 0.6% vs CIMB : Charges from HK is HKD150 per trade(??%) and local is 0.4%. I don't really know which one is cheaper! Well, I m least affected by these rates but tho they are 'tiny', if could come up to few hundreds if I trade often!!

KLSE : I m missing KLSE and my contra-trading. At the moment, I need to be patient and get my trades RIGHT in HKSE as it will be more rewarding(and 'riskier'?). So, I narrowed a few counters for my contra-play in KLSE. Well, when you played at a playground for long, you grew fondness with the surroundings.

I m queue-ing for KNM at 0.395 and Genting-cm at 0.040. KLSE poised to move downward. Brace yourself ... I will get in IF there is a panic-selling. I noticed that ASTRO moving below RM2 now. Resorts will be back to RM2.20 level while Tenaga may be testing RM6 now. Among the FBM30, MMC is the cheapest? It has moved up so strong, but losing its steam.

湯寶如 - 感冒



10.15 am : AS moves lower to 7.10 level now. I will be collecting more once it moves below 6.90(my AB level). At the moment, AB at 7.25 level with HSI losing 100+ points.

10.25 am : HKD strengthen against MYR. It is above 0.472 now, in a way it a good news since I bought into HKSE. Assuming it is at 0.50, a 2k units = 1k units in my mind. So, buying 2k units of AS at price HKD7.41 = RM7,400 and 2k units of AB at HKD6.90 = RM7,000. That is how roughly I calculate my trades, never getting into too much of details about brokerage fees, currency exchange rates etc etc. True .. I do try to look into such too, but the price appreciation of the stocks is my most important concern.

10.45 am : AB moves up to 7.40 level while AS stays at 7.10 level. The energy and mining stocks I was looking into moving higher another 5% each at the moment.

12.00 nn : Hmm ... KLCI at 892. Call me LUCKY as I cleared Alam(now at 0.695) and Sime-cg(now at 0.11!! WOW) higher yesterday. Call me UN-LUCKY to buy into AS as is it still moving down. That is part-and-parcel of stock-markets. It is irrational and not for faint-hearted person.
HSI losing another 200points today so far ... hmm ... will there be any technical rebound tmr? For the past one week, HSI has lost almost 1000points now. It is at 12700+ now, testing 12500+ level soon, if tmr it didnt recover. Breaking that support level could trigger a strong SELL in most of the counters.

4.30 pm : HSI closed slightly higher (70.6 points) with AB at 7.46 and AS at 7.40. A rebound from DOW tonight might see a strong rebound from HSI, and time to sell? Hmm ...

5.45 pm : The last hour rally was incredible ... I think I m more suitable for such jumps! Haha. AS touched a low of 7.02 and I was thinking of getting more of it at 6.50 level(support level) but it managed to climb back to my purchase price level. Phew!

11.00 pm : DOW is very volatile at the moment, but in green. Expecting some rebounds tonight, giving the positive rebound in HK-market. I m looking into my third babe.

HKSE's babe so far:

1. Bank Of China : Buy 2.15, Sell 2.20
2. Genesis Energy : Buy 0.31, Sell 0.355
3. Alibaba : Buy 6.90, Sell 8.80?
4. Angang Steel : Buy 7.41, Sell 8.50?
5. Mining vs Energy

SGX's babes so far :

1. GoldenAgri : Buy 0.265, Sell 0.29
2. Genting Int : Buy 0.42, Sell 0.445
3. To be considered.

TEH

Tuesday, February 17, 2009

HKD vs MYR

12.35 am : Using TA, I need to check whether there is a sell-confirmation on GI and buy-confirmation on AB. I m still new with TA, so it takes me TIME to look into the charts and candle-sticks interpretations.

I may need to focus only on TWO stocks in HKSE, swing-trade it and be patient. BOC has been hanging at 2.08-2.22 level for quite some time. So, I cleared it and hoping to channel the funds into the TWO stocks I m targeting. Focus rather than diverisfying!!

Alibaba will be one of the stock I m holding. The other one will be confirmed to BUY tmr(today actually). I m tired. Night.

7.40 am : Ok ... I m going to BUY another China's energy counter later on tho I m interested with a steel-related counter. I only have funds to buy ONE. Energy vs Steel? Hmm ...

9.30 am : I hv sold Sime-cg(BUY 0.12, SELL 0.125), Resorts-ci(BUY 0.0875, SELL 0.075) and Alam (BUY 0.70, SELL 0.715). Clearance sales going on but I m still stuck with Genting-cm. I m moving out totally of KLSE(only funds for FKLI which NOT activated yet). I m clearing GI too later as I want to focus fully on HKSE for the time being.

9.50 am : Queueing to clear GI at 0.45 now. Decided with 2k units with my steel-counter for the start. Yes, only two counters to swing-trade. My third will be the mining vs energy, but that needs me to clear my GI first. Pulling all the funds from KLSE to HKSE(except Genting-cm ... will CUT off soon too). Welcome to Hong Kong, the city of entertainment. Hehe

10.30 am : HSI diving down 400+ points. Bought 0347.HK at 7.41 ... wow, it is NOT even shown in my screen(at 7.50 now) but I bought market value at 7.41?? Hmm ... Lagging of 20 minutes!

BOC dived back to 2.12 level, don't say I m LUCKY to clear at 2.20(yesterday's intraday high) as yes, I admit I m lucky with that BUT I do take a lot of my time planning. I bought Angang at 7.41 just now, it is shown in my screen now! LUCKY or UNLUCKY? If it dives further down, will you CLAIM i m unlucky? Or If it move up to 8.00+ in fews days time, will you say i m LUCKY? My gosh!! Change your brain, please. Markets go up and down. There are elements of LUCK(I know) but most of the part is trading-plan with strong courage. Enough said. OK.

12.40 pm : HSI losing about 400points. I hv cleared my GI at 0.445. Gained enough to pay my broker fees and free lunch and dinner today. Hehe

AB at 7.20 and AS at 7.50 level.

2.15 pm : STI losing 25 points at the moment. Don't know WHY markets going down, as they are supposed to move up(due to gov's stimulus??). I don't know but I do know China market ignored general global markets!! HSI losing 390+ points, ok?

2.55 pm : HSI getting lower, losing more than 400+points now. Zoommm

AB at 7.25 and AS at 7.35. HSI losing almost 500 points now. But there are a few greens in my stalk list. Hmm ...

4.15 pm : AB climbed back to 7.40 level but AS at 7.30 level.

4.30 pm : AB closed at 7.39, while AS at 7.27. HSI lost 510.48. Note that GI at 0.43 now, I sold 0.445 this morning. Look at GoldenAgri at 0.275 now!!

5.10 pm : STI lost 42.78 points. KLCI below 900.

10.50 pm : DOW down by 200+points now. Oh boy ... what will happen to markets in Asia tmr? Hmm ...

TEH

p/s : I could NOT add pictures/diagrams ... don't know WHY.

Monday, February 16, 2009

As we are expecting regional markets to rally, I m eyeing to clear my holdings in KLSE and making more commitments towards HKSE. Yes, I m spending more time reading China-HK economic news while gathering more HK's stocks to stalk. If this rally could last, many in equitiy markets could smile or at least gaining back some lost 'capitals'.

Well, I m seeing these rallies as temporary, so I hv no intention to hold for too long. We need to see how US market re-acts towards the latest stimulus and also certain sectors are doing. Crude oil price is still below USD40, but yes ... once the demand picking-up(with OPEC making commitments to CUT CUT CUT), crude oil WILL appreciates. It is a matter of WHEN and HOW much. Some analysts putting crude oil at USD60+ by year end. We could take it as an indication of the health of the global economies, generally.

US market is in high risk at the moment. The speculation of the possible of the collaspe of US-currency. Or even the de-valuing of USD, will make many investors scare of getting into US-market at the moment. Some companies are facing Chapter 11. Look at GM at USD2+ ... cheap but too cheap for comfort!! Good stocks don't come cheap? AIG is much cheaper, going below USD1. Unbelivable ... we are talking about the 'largest' insurer collapsing.

Will you BUY ... say, AIG in USD (1USD = MYR 3.60 now) at USD1? FEARS are written all over. For those 'gamblers', it is a chance of the life-time!! BUY AIG at USD1, and it could easily fetching USD3-5, and that is hundreds of % profits!! But, if AIG going down(or USD collapse), you stand to lose only 100% of your funds!! A good bet will be placing ... say USD10k with it, and PRAY that things work out ... you will be a richer man next month or so!! Interesting BETTING, right? Hehe ...

相思風雨中 - 張學友 & 湯寶如 <--- Nice classic from Hong Kong.

10.15 am : STI down a little, by 2points. GI at 0.45 vs 0.455. Buying GI at 0.41 last week or so is a good trade? Hmm ... I m NOT releasing yet, ok? Buut will monitor closely, of coz. I m busy acquiring for my next HK's babe.

AB went down to 6.60 just now as HSI losing about 100+ points. It is back to 6.80-level now. I m looking at 0390.HK and 0753.HK currently.

AB is moving erratically ... I m queueing at 6.50 to buy more into it, it only touched 6.60 and now up strongly to 6.90 level. Wow. Interesting roller-coaster. Haha

AB moving strongly up and at 7.15 now. Interesting moves but I didnt get to BUY more just now. I m finding these as very exciting. Haha. BTW, HSI down by 250points now, mind u.

12.30 pm : Alibaba still moving to new intra-day high, breaking 7.20 now. Hmm ... at what price will I release? I m releasing my hold on BOC soon, actually.

2.20 pm : SGX and HKSE in reds. GI still at 0.450 vs 0.455. AB closed for lunch at 7.24. BOC at 2.14.

3.05 pm : AB surging up to touch 7.32 just now. I will like to see it go up above 7.50 first.

5.10 pm : AB closed higher at 7.45. GI unchanged at 0.445. I sold my BOC at 2.20, enough to cover my brokerage fees. So, it is not really a win/loss. JL was here to witness the closing of HKSE at 4.30, saw the jump of AB and my sale of BOC. Hehe. When a person shown great interest of learning, the 'teacher' also will be motivate to teach. :-)

6.05 pm : STI lost 22.33 points, HSI lost 98.79 points while KLCI at 907.19. All in reds, so the expectation that Asia markets will rally due to the Obama stimulus may not be true. FTSE also going down as banking stocks dragging it down.

TEH

p/s : This is my 250th post. Hehe

Sunday, February 15, 2009

I woke up about 4.15 just now, to read on the reports that I downloaded for the week, and many are HK's babes.

The Click Five - Empty <--- I noticed that I was too busy and did not put any of nice songs up here for some time now. hehe. Enjoy this one as I still do(old song now). :-)

A reply to an e-mail by lithium.

1.FEAR ALL OVER
Make sure the market environment is gloom and doom, bad news all over the media, nobody knows when is the economy is going to recover, nobody wants to buy stocks!

TEH : Yes, I will look into these as a indicator for bottom-fishing. BUT, the FEAR is REAL. So, it might be easier said than done. Let us say, Najib went up, political unrest erupted with Sultans involved, more politicians found to be involved in money-politics and more quarterly reports stating BAD companies losses. Add in BNM announcing Malaysia officially in recession in April, a perfect storm created? What will happpen to KLCI? Will you go in an BUY?

Me? I will be glad to short FKLI, and BUY one/two stocks I m stalking, which I think will rebound once stablise. YES, I will. That is WHY I m getting ready my future a/c and also some CASH to shoot, IF such a scenario happen. It will not be such a bad situation. I exaggarated, of coz. Hehe

2.SELL OFF STABLISE
After market have a panic sell and plunged like nobody’s business. And then start to stable, with more bad news but do not plunge like crazy anymore.

TEH : Yes, look at China or HKSE recoving now since DEC. So, it has slowly trying to find its ground. That explain WHY I m into HKSE now. But, we still need to be alert as DJIA still an important indicator. Never under-estimate US market impacts.

3.PICK THE BLUES
Pick only blue chips. Top 5 largest Market Cap companies of each sector.

TEH :This one depending on your strategies ... currently, most BLUE chips giving investors the blues. From GE to Genting, you could see it is no longer blue? But once the economies recover, these stocks will recover first, comparing to second liners. Also, these stocks dont come cheap!! Apple at USD100 or PPB at RM10.


4.ESTIMATE WORST EPS
Get earning reports of the company which you think might be one of the worst quarter. In this case, I think 4Q2008 earnings is fine.

TEH : Generally, it depends on sectors and also particular stocks. Some are cyclical but some are just the opposite. I dont really compare quarterly EPS but just look into the EPS as one of the many points for a company's performance. Look into US stocks, many EPS are in NEGATIVE range.


5.PE less than 9
Use the worst quarter EPS x 4 and current share price to calculate PE. PE must be at least around 8 or less.

TEH : Yes, generally the lower the PE value, the better of coz. Now, different sectors different PE valuation. So, I could not really rely on PE value to BUY into a stock. Scomi or Ranhill PE are so low. Look at LionInd. Or perhaps in US/HKSE, many PE value is less than 5.0 ... yet, certain sectors surely have higher PE than others, right? If you compare PE valuation of KLSE, it is HIGHER than SGX or HKSE. Does that mean KLSE's stock over-valued? YES ... generally, compared to SGX or HKSE but ...some stocks in certain sectors are NOT. I guess you get what I mean here.


6.HIGHEST PE
Find out the highest PE ratio the company ever had in history. This case, using 2007 EPS and 2008 highest share price to calculate.

TEH : Now, if I m going to calculate such for all the stocks I m stalking, I need 24 hours full-time doing such. I hv only about 4 hours per day ... so, generally, I will only compare its PE with peers and its sector.

7.POTENTIAL RETURN
With this highest PE(item6), calculate what will be the price with the worst EPS (item4). This will be the potential % return you can expect. Ask yourself if this return can be met in 10 years, does it meet your expectation?

TEH : Are you an analyst? Hehe ... sorry, I do not look into such a detailed FA, but I do place an estimation for its stock-price to be considered as 'over-valued'. Buy those stocks(strong profittable) 30% under its 'fair-value' will be a good buy, in my opinion.

8.PICK YOUR BEST
Compare with other companies in the same sector, even in different exchange e.g US, HK, Sing
TEH : Agreed but lots of work. Surely a smarter way of comparing companies. Many regional companies are related, for example steel companies.

9.SOLID BALANCE SHEET
Check the company’s balance sheet. Make sure the current asset (cash) > than current liabilities. Total asset > total liabilities.

TEH : Of coz we will prefer to look into counters with positive cash-flows. Higher gearing companies are at the risk(especially during the credit crunches at the moment). So, yes ... one of the main criteria an FA should look into. I will place this one much HIGHER up the list.

10.SURVIVAL
Check any recent news of the company and analyst reports. Bad news doesn’t mean not good (even better because you can get cheaper price for it). Find out if the company is able to survive these news and not go bankcrupt.

TEH : Yeah, FEARS will be all over if the company filing for bankcrutcy. Those strong ones will survive. Look into some gov bailing-out some sick companies too. So, these political linked companies somehow SURVIVE eventho it is ailing.

11.LAST PICK
Find out current PB ratio. If you are really scared, buy only if PB less than 1.

TEH : Never learn this one. No comment.

12.DIVERSIFY
Diversify! Don’t buy only 1 stock. Split your fund to 10. Buy at least 10 or any amount that you think you can monitor.

13.PLACE YOUR BETS
BUY BUY BUY!

14.MONITOR AND TAKE PROFIT
Periodically compare PE with other companies in the same sector. If PE of your company goes much higher than its peers, make sure it’s justifiable, otherwise take profit!


15. RUN!
When everyone think the economy is fantastic, pasar ah sou also buy stocks! PE breaks all time high. SELL SELL SELL!

TEH : Yes ... if u hear those aunties selling vege talking about stock market, it is about time to SELL. Agreed.

1.30 pm : I m listening to local biz-news @ channel 512 while scanning through Peter Lynch's Beating The Street. And typing these lines making it 3-in-1. Hmm ... it is written there that KLSE expected to move HIGHER this week!! Yeah, time to SELL off my ALAM? Hehe. Tmr will also see me buying my third HKSE's babe!! Hehe.


TEH