Tuesday, September 30, 2008
LionInd at 1.27.
10am : KLCI at 1001 now ... opened below 1000 points just now. Some bargain-buying. Now, the world markets are melting ... BUY today only to sell (NO MATTER WHAT) in matter of days. We cant hold for long ... unless forever? KLCI will go below 980 soon ... we will see more lelong-sales. It is Raya MEGA-sales TODAY only!!
LionInd at 1.24. Scomi at 0.47 at the moment.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Gamuda is in RED and currently active. KNM has been active for 2/3 weeks ... and trading at 1.28 now(up 4cents).
LionInd 1.31 --- ALERT. There is a BUY call by one of the local broker house in their latest report. I m stalking on this one ... somehow still like LION group.
LionDiv 0.565 --- I hv cleared this one 2 weeks ago, and it is still on the way down. Megasteel no more doing business? Banting plant too huge to handle? I dont know the real reasons WHY LIONDIV is at this bottom level. And it is still bottom-ing. DONT TOUCH till it hits the floor, but none in sight?
1. Annjoo - 2.49
2. Hiap Teck - 1.01
3. Kinstel - 0.595
4. LionInd - 1.32
5. Masteel - 0.815
6. SSteel - 1.95
3pm : Some bargain buying and KLSE slightly up. ASTRO at 3.02!!
NO trade this week as all waiting for the FED to rescue the whole US financial situation. B & B of UK is collapsing too ...
p/s: Spin2Win, i dont know you are an Amerian!! Perhaps, i could learn much from you regarding US market, ya? Thanks.
Sunday, September 28, 2008
1. Annjoo-WB @ 0.69(L 0.68) - 2013
2. Cresbld - WA @ 0.30 ( L 0.25) 2016
3. OSK - WA @ 0.215(L 0.205) - 2010
4. Salcon - WA @ 0.165(L 0.16) - 2014
5. TGOff- WA @ 0.85 (L 0.85) - 2106
6. YTLPower @ 0.52 (L 0.52) - 2018
7. YunKong - WA @ 0.15 (L 0.06) - 2013
Well, these are few warrants i will start to monitor. Those expiring soon in 2008/2009, i wont look at it. Let us look into longer term when KLSE recover(someday) ... these warrants might have a huge boost. And the values could appreciate > 100%. Which one?
This KISS - Faith Hill.
Friday, September 26, 2008
SAN MIGUEL AD <-- Chow Sing Chi
WaMu ... please read ...
NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Washington Mutual Inc was closed by the U.S. government in by far the largest failure of a U.S. bank, and its banking assets were sold to JPMorgan Chase & Co for $1.9 billion. ...more
So, if we have enough money(ask Buffet ... he got billions!) at the moment, we SHOULD BUY anything in US now. THe properties, the businesses, some stocks, ... buy the collapsing banks too. Keep till its economics turn, you will be the richest person in ASIA. Hmm ...
If i have 1 million, i wont be even here unless for the fun of it!! I rather ... stay at home, watch ASTRO. Haha. Just kidding.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Tebrau and Equine, two properties counters, gained more than 15% and 28% respectively.
YUNKONG-WA gained 26%. It closed at 0.17. How is that? Cool money?
The BIG question is : HOW do we know WHICH one to trade at WHAT TIME/DAY in one day? Then, WHEN should we sell to take some profit? That is in everyone's mind ... it is a battle of minds.
Faizal Tahir <--- nice voice. Faizal Tahir - Kasih Tercipta - OST Waris Jari Hantu
Lyric is HERE
KLCI closed for lunch at 1025.75.
SunwayWB back to 0.035 as some prefer to profit-take. Q-ing for 0.03 is still attractive but wont know if i could get any today.
Sunway-WC ... hmm ... and extension of the WB?
I dont really have the knowledge just yet. We shall see if i could get for 0.03 then release it at 0.04 or higher, perhaps?
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
AS a result of the recent financial crisis in companies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers as well as AIG, investors have been wondering whether there will be more companies affected by this crisis.
George Soros, in his book published in the early 2008 titled The New Paradigm for Financial Markets: The Credit Crisis of 2008 and What It Means, said that “ .... the current crisis is not merely the bursting of the housing bubble. It is bigger than the periodic financial crises we have experienced in our lifetime.”
According to him, we should expect the current situation to get worse before it can get better.
Hence, investors need to prepare themselves for this downturn. Even though nobody will know exactly when the market will recover again, we must be ready when the market moves.
In order to do that, we need to understand stock market cycles and where we are now.
Stock market cycles can be divided into five phases €“ expansion, settlement, contraction, crisis and recovery.
During expansion, the overall stock market sentiment will be bullish with higher stock market volume and prices.
In every market rally, there is always a main theme. For example, the bull market in 2007 was mainly attributed to positive sentiment in the plantation sector.
During this period, we should buy stocks in the sectors that benefit from the rally. If your portfolio owned a lot of plantation stocks last year, you would benefit from the overall market rally last year. Hence, we should pick stocks that follow the market theme.
Then it will enter into settlement for some profit-taking activities. If the overall market sentiment remains bullish, it will resume its uptrend.
The bullish trend will reach a period where reality can no longer sustain the exaggerated expectations. Then the market will enter into contraction where long-term investors get very uncomfortable with the market situation.
In this period, we should sell poor fundamental stocks as well as stocks in sectors which will be seriously affected in a downtrending market.
There are still some short-term traders who may enter the market at this stage as they believe it may rebound later.
However, when the market drops further, it will enter into crisis where long-term investors as well as short-term traders are selling stocks.
Our market is currently in this phase where long-term investors as well as short-term traders are not willing to commit themselves. This is given the unsettling of the US financial crisis in companies like Lehman Brothers and AIG.
Despite the US government’s plan to rescue banks, not many analysts or fund managers are convinced that we have seen the worst.
Soros applied the theory of reflexivity to explain the current crisis.
According to him, the market participants’ misjudgements and misconceptions affect the stock market prices.
He said that later, these biased perceptions would affect both prices and the fundamentals that those prices are supposed to reflect.
When a market drops in prices, it creates fear. As a result of this fear factor, prices will drop further and later cause panic selling as the fundamentals will also be affected by lower prices. Then it will turn the investors’ perception into reality.
Soros called this a two-way reflexivity connection between perception and reality, which can give rise to initially self-reinforcing but later self-defeating.
Hence, in every stock market cycle, regardless of any stock market, while it may take a long time to reach its peak, when it drops, the drop will accelerate and be followed by panic selling.
At present, most investors will be eager to know when our market will enter into the recovery phase where the market will start to recover. It will be a mammoth job to predict the market bottom.
Nevertheless, we should consider buying some stocks whenever the market experiences panic selling like the recent global market crash on the fallout of Lehman Brothers and AIG.
According to Lauren C. Templeton and Scott Phillips in their book on Investing the Templeton Way, investors need to buy stocks whenever the market experiences panic selling.
They that we should take advantage of problems that are exaggerated in the minds of sellers because of the sellers’ near-term focus.
Even though they agree that buying into crisis may affect your portfolio performance, you will gain in the long term.
However, you need to make sure that you have enough cash to average down your purchases.
Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser licensed by Securities Commission and managing partner of MRR Consulting.
KLCI at 1022.50, closing for lunch.
As I m still learning what warrants/loans is all about, there is warrant-A and warrant-B?
For example, the most actively traded(and gained 60% in ONE morning!!) is SUNWAY-WB. It is priced at 0.04 at the moment(from 0.025). Its mother share is about 80cents. WHY its warrant traded so cheaply? It you bought in AUG 11th at 0.015, today after ONE MONTH you could have profitted 100% return!! WOW. That is warrant trading ... So, should i BUY at 0.04 now and see if it could go UP to 0.06, and earn 50% returns? I m happy with even 10% return in this bearish market.
Well, warrants are known to be easily manipulated due to its cheap prices. But, some warrants are more highly priced than its mother! How is that, then? I will learn more to be able to explain the WHYs, one day.
At the moment, I m monitoring the movements of some warrants vs mother stocks. AnnJoo-wb is also at the bottom(0.68) as AnnJoo at 2.50(nearing bottom). I m stalking AnnJoo, its mother but its baby look attractive too. Cute.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Crude oil price recovering, so CPO will increase too. Those heavy weights going up VERY very fast(and will fall once profit taking in place?) KLK, Asiatic, Sime, IOICorp ... sigh. I still in love with HSPlant. Hmm ...
12noon : KLSE in RED, as expected as HSI down too. DOW downed 370points last night.
Yes, i m starting to look in Hang Seng as HK market is being pushed down a lot too. But looking out of the KLSE window. Politically still unstable ... tho many counters got value.
Plantation after the rebound as at 23 Sept 2008
1. Asiatic - 4.46(L4.20) ---> 4.78
2. BatuKawan - 7.05 (L 6.55) ---> 7.50
3. HSPlant - 1.72(L 1.66) ---> 1.91
4. IJMPlant - 1.68 (L 1.59) ---> 1.93
5. IOICorp - 4.06 (L 3.74) ---> 4.56
6. KLK - 9.30 ( L 8.55) ---> 9.85
7.KMLoong - 1.68 (L1.65) ---> 1.17
8. Kulim - 5.40 (L 5.00) ---> 5.65
9. Kwantas - 2.62(L 2.59) ---> 2.68
10.Sime - 6.05 (L 5.85) ---> 6.50
11.TSH - 1.85(L 1.77) ---> 1.99
6.45pm : I FAILED to buy any plantation counters today as it shot up too fast as i was reluctant to chase.
Monday, September 22, 2008
KLCI is active this morning. UP 10 points and i m still q-ing. It is a BUYing opportunities for many(especially you have been side-lined for weeks/months!!) but BUYING should be done on last THURSDAY when KLCI went below 1000points. Crazy buying is on again, but profit-taking soon and KLSE will be back to its dormant state. YAWN ... it is really a game of emotions.
Anwar court case on WEDNESDAY? We Malaysian should not forget that DSAI still terrifying investors with his dream. PM to step down earlier, some even suggest before Oct 9th, another important date in Malaysia politics. Yup, traders need to keep tap with those playing the political games locally(besides, being haunted by the collapsing of some HUGE financial institutions in US and Europe!). How on earth are we going to get into market to BUY anything??
I m q-ing ... but since it is surging up in fast pace, i think i m too old to chase. Besides, i dont think to i should case. This is my trading adventure ... trying out some of the so-called concepts, techniques, strategies of trading. Trading vs Investing ... for a longer term investors, yes ... with a longer time frame, MANY 'cheap" stocks around. But, should we be optimistic and go in NOW??
BUY BUY BUY ... that is what happening now. I m not really excited, as yet again ... KLCI will be testing the 1000 or 980 level.
Time : 10.45am KLSE losing its steam ... i hv cancelled my queue. Well, KLSE might close RED today, i wont be surprised. So much of the hip-ho of trading rally. Hmm ...
Time : 12.15pm KLCI might be having curry for lunch later and turn RED. At the moment, it is still holding at 1028.65 ... up merely 2.95 points. World will be facing financial turmoil ... many will be jobless as many more companies need to close down. Time to move OUT of equaties and look into buying 'cheap' properties ... next year?
Saturday, September 20, 2008
LionDiv at 0.64 and Scomi jumped up to 0.51. Wow.
Market overall is still bearish ... but many becoming attractive. Unless you are ready to play contra or hold forever game, better stay away.
I like to write more when the market dives down ... more opportunities to bottom fish. Currently, it is only temporary BULLish, some technical rebound ...
See you on MONDAY ... come on, KLSE ... you surely can go down below the intra-day low of 965 which registered on Thu morning!!
Friday, September 19, 2008
Posted Jan 16th 2008
Analysis Type: Fundamental
Markets are really bad. As I said yesterday, stay out of the market. Whole world is going down, although we want to go up, it is an artificial rally. So , it would be wise to wait for the rebound and get out. True there may be a mini election rally which is being propped up by the goverment, however, it will not last and is designed as an ambush. Use the rally to sell and get out instead of to buy.
At least Malaysia markets will be going down for a few months before seeing any optimistic signs. In those times, might want to look at a counter like Lion Industries, to monitor to accumulate at much lower than present levels.
Lionind is now trading at RM2.40. However I expect it to go down much much lower in the next few months. Aiming to get it at RM1.70 level. So don't go in yet.
Looking to the future, despite the half a year world slowdown, Lionind has great long term fundamentals.
Steel Business : Value RM1 billion
High demand from high growth countries like India and China will buoy their steel business for a long time. Pegging a 6.4x PE with a normalised PAT of RM151 million, the value of its steel business would be RM1 billion
Parkson : Value RM1.7 billion
Parkson, a powerhouse shopping business in China is the jewel in Lionind's crown. It has been undergoing a rally in recent months and at RM8.5, has a market cap of RM8.2 billion. Lionind has a 21% stake in it which would be worth RM1.7 billion.
Lion Diversified : Value EM0.3 billion
Lionind also has a 21% stake in Lion Diversified. At a market cap of RM1.4 billion, Lionind's stake would be worth RM0.3 billion
The sum total of its steel businesses plus its stake in Parkson and Lion Diversified is RM3 billion where as Lion Ind's market cap is only around RM1.6 billion which is a 46% discount to its entire value.
The value is definitely there in Lion Industries. However, for the next few months world markets will most likely go down because of the slowdown in the US and the sub prime and housing downturn. As a result the value of Lionind's stakes will go down also.
However, Lionind's fundamentals are still there, might be a good buy when it corrects significantly to around RM1.50-RM1.70.
Posted 15th Sept
Analysis Type: Fundamental
Apologies for not posting for a week. Was on leave and what's more, there was some programming done in the charting and database of hotstocks.com.my. Hope readers have been safe from the recent crazy markets.
Things are really bad now. Lehman is declaring bankruptcy and according to Malaysiafinance.blogspot.com, other banks like Washington Mutual and Wachovia may be in a deep hole as well.
Times are indeed tough. The USD was just walloped 2% vs the JPY in just one night alone. But this may be as worse as it gets. Things are bad, but tis the best times to buy, when times are bad. What's more, Bank of America's acquition of Merrill Lynch represented a 70% premium over its Friday closing price. So there is still value in banking stocks. And I think it might be a good time to buy only selected long term strong fundamental stocks. Tomorrow morning might be a good entry point I would reckon.
My pick would be Lion Industries at anything below RM1.30. Right now it is trading at 1.42. I think this is a great stock for the steel play as well as the China consumption play. Steel play in the sense that it is one of the biggest steel players in the country and would benefit from great demand for construction products of China.
Besides that, Lion Industries also owns Parkson which is a gigantic consumer presence in China. Lion Industries' steel and China consumer play makes it a great fundamental stock to pick up during these distress times.
At RM1.30, you'll be buying this stock at 2-3x PE and 67% discount to NTA. Not a bad deal for a solid long term play.
LIONIND was traded 1.28 before lunch, but up 8cents after lunch to close at 1.36 yesterday. ALERT!!
Thursday, September 18, 2008
NOting that KLSE will up into buying spree today, human emotions(GREED) in play here. The politics still unclear locally, US crisis and its effects just about to show ... WHY would ANY investors BUYING? Well, these are punters, BUY only to sell at rebounds for quick money. The risk is there but these are veterans ...
1. Asiatic - 4.46(L4.20)
2. BatuKawan - 7.05 (L 6.55)
3. HSPlant - 1.72(L 1.66)
4. IJMPlant - 1.68 (L 1.59)
5. IOICorp - 4.06 (L 3.74)
6. KLK - 9.30 ( L 8.55)
7.KMLoong - 1.68 (L1.65)
8. Kulim - 5.40 (L 5.00)
9. Kwantas - 2.62(L 2.59)
10.Sime - 6.05 (L 5.85)
11.TSH - 1.85(L 1.77)
Oil and Gas (15th Sept) ---> 18th Sept
1. Dialog - 0.90(L 0.86) ---> 0.905
2. Kencana 1.32 (L 1.20) ---> 1.34
3. KNM - 1.14 (L 1.08) ---> 1.17
4. Sapcres - 1.26 (L 0.98) ---> 1.26
5. Scomi - 0.48 (0.475) ---> 0.475
6. Wah Seong - 1.43(L 1.43) ---> 1.34
7. Ramunia - 1.43(L 1.39) --->1.48
KLCI at 1011.49, up 2% this morning. More GREEN but dont think it could go any further. KNM at 1.19 and the most active counter again. Someone is speculating on this counter, and many will be sucked in. I was tempted to BUY yesterday morning at 1.09 but hesitate as i hv promised myself to BE PATIENT. Wait till end of the year, wait for next year ... or even wait till BADAWI step down. Wait till Anwar FINALLY make a stand. Wait till we see TRUE picture of recession in US and Japan. Wait ... just wait and see how FED baling out a few more financial institutions that collapsing at the moment. Wait ... for the next RALLY? I dont know ... wait for next election?
BUY and you need to HOLD ... forever?
LATEST : 9.15am ... KLSE opened 15 minutes ago and zrrooom ... at 985 NOW. Killing field and brace it as 1997/98 history repeating?
Oil and Gas (15th Sept) ---> 17th Sept
1. Dialog 0.90---> 0.925 (L 0.86)
2. Kencana 1.32 (L 1.20) ---> 1.38
3. KNM - 1.14 (L 1.08) ---> 1.15 (L 1.05)
4. Sapcres - 1.26 (L 0.98) ---> 1.22
5. Scomi - 0.48 (L 0.475) ---> 0.475(L 0.465)
6. Wah Seong - 1.43(L 1.43) ---> 1.36 (L 1.35)
Everyday we will find NEW LOWS ... and yes, many more will be going to that direction soon ... As crude oil at US97 at the moment, and with bad market sentiments in KLSE, these so-called favourited counters badly hit. There is some new interest in Sapcres and Kencana at the moment, but i feel those news could not sustain ... FEARS is too great. RUN.
Steel Sector - 17th Sept
1. AnnJoo 2.57 (L 2.37)
2. HiapTeck 0.97 (L 0.97)
3. Kinstel 0.635 (L 0.615)
4. LionInd 1.35 (L 1.25)
5. Masteel 0.81( L 0.75)
6. SSteel 2.05( L 1.63)
Steel is another sector that was moving up in such a fast rate when the ceiling price taken off. But due to the slow-down overall, and the retractment of its price, steel conuters have been tumbling down, zrroommm ... it is free fall. The graphs look like waterfalls.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Today will be GREEN? And LionDiv will rebound? Hmm ...
1. Asiatic - 4.70 (L 4.70) ---> 4.50(L 4.40)
2. BatuKawan - 7.25(L 7.25)--->7.10(L 6.80)
3. HSPlant - 1.77(L 1.73) ---> 1.74(L 1.68)
4. IJMPlant - 1.75 (L 1.74) ---> 1.69(L 1.65)
5. IOICorp - 4.22 (L 4.06) ---> 4.04(L 3.08)
6.KMLoong - 1.69(L 1.68) --->1.68 (L1.68)
7. Kulim - 5.35 (L 5.30) ---> 5.30 (L 5.10)
8. Kwantas - 2.83 (L 2.70) ---> 2.66(L 2.60)
9. Sime - 6.00 (L 5.95) ---> 5.95(L 5.85)
10.TSH - 1.80(L 1.80) ---> 1.90(L 1.77)
KLCI in REDs and nearing 1000 points soon. RUN ... the Pakatan GOV still pending. More than 31 MPs will jump over, according to DSAI. Here in Sabah, Yong Teck Lee openly support Pakatan yesterday. Lim it Siang was here. Front page of local Sabah paper. So, it is knee-jerk fears all over in KLSE ... RUN, my man.
KLCI closed for lunch at 1007. Some bargain buying going on and LionDiv at 0.635 at the moment. LionInd at 1.41. Both are in GREEN. Hmm ...
Scomi remains at 0.485 ...
In USA, AIG, Lehman, F & F, Washington Mutual ... i m reading these financial crisis faced in US, which will affect the whole WORLD markets ... i dont really understand many of the terms used. Also, HOW these things go so bad. I m learning world finance/economics by myself. Macro economics.
If these financial issues are unsolved, we will see BEAR markets for a long long time ...
Locally, we have Maybank issue(with BII). Maybank share price shed 40cents today.
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
KLCI 1010.2 ... nearing the psychological level of 1000, and next support at 980.
I hv pulled myself OUT with losses ... I will be back.
In the mean time, KLSE coloured RED everywhere and OIL below US100 now. Incredible ... today is 9:16, mind you. Besides the financial crisis in US, we hv to content with local uncertainties. With CPO retracing further, there is no green light at this loooong tunnel. We are in huge bear market. Some analysts pointed out that Malaysian companies' fundamentals still in-tact and it is overly sold. Heck ... no one is listening to anyone at the moment. RUN ... i m badly bruised. Well, my naivety clearly shown ... and licking my wounds, i vowed ... I WILL BE BACK, stronger than ever! Hmm ... watched movies recently? It is like a script in a movie ... some never learn their lessons. RUN ... everyone yelled.
Pondering on what to do next, and the best ... i hv to hold on to whatever i have, re-collect somemore funds in the mean time ... for the NEXT round. Are we still optimistic that KLSE will recover? When will that be? In four years time when the new GOV legally formed?
Or shall we look beyond local .. say, STI or Hang Seng? Asia markets badly hit too due to US crisis. Many things to consider before we could migrate ourselves. I will seriously look into that possibilities by end of this year.
Cash is still the best, at the moment. I know i need to learn my lessons, also to analyse further my mistakes in trading. For example, WHY am i buying LIONDIV at 0.82,in the midst of BEAR MARKET and with reports painting losses for the quarter? With 9:16 lurking dangerously, isnt it OBVIOUS KLSE will retrace further??
LionDiv at 0.60 now ... the price i sold.
I still have the liking for LionInd. Steel play ... or perhaps look into many plantation counters that badly battered. These are cyclical sectors. The demands are still strong and it will rebound back again. NOT KLSE at the moment, with our political pictures being tainted.
Monday, September 15, 2008
KUALA LUMPUR AmResearch is retaining its Underweight stance on the plantations and it believes that the stocks had come under heavy selling recently, it was too early to bottom-fish for value.
It said in a note to clients on Monday that the downside risk potential in this previously over-owned sector is still significant due to three factors.
Firstly, the collapse in the crude palm oil (CPO) pricing was steeper and swifter than expected.
Secondly, the sharp sell-offs had also caught many plantation companies by surprise.
Thirdly, the price-to-earnings (PE) de-rating was expected to persist as plantations companies were still trading on lofty multiples.
In its analysis, AmResearch said the recent collapse in the CPO pricing cycle was admittedly steeper and swifter than its already bearish expectations.
It said the decline was accentuated by the collapse in crude oil price and an adverse change in bio-diesel policy in EU where lawmakers voted to effectively cut the biofuel target for 2020 from 10% to 6%.
The price of CPO had already fallen by some 37% off the monthly high of RM3,680 per tonne to RM2,300 per tonne currently.
AmResearch said in the last three down cycles, the peak-to-trough price correction ranged between 35% and 72%).
The research house said 4Q08 was expected to be seasonally stronger due to stronger demand from the festive period but any meaningful price recovery might be capped by rising production.
“We believe that CPO is just at the mid-point of a pricing down cycle. Against this backdrop, we are cutting our average CPO price assumption from RM3,000 per tonne to RM2,200 per tonne for 2009, and to remain flat at best in 2010,” it said.
AmResearch added that it believed the sharp sell-offs have also caught many plantation companies by surprise.
“Our discussions with a few plantation companies have revealed that they are still selling mostly at spot prices. An added drag on earnings may come from the high cost of fertiliser.
"Although crude oil prices have weakened, an industry player has indicated that fertiliser costs may only soften in 2H09 due to the lagged effect,” it added.
The research house said it was cutting its earnings estimates for FY09F by some 7% to 44% across the board to reflect its new CPO price assumption.
Tradewinds Plantation would be most affected by the CPO pricing downcycle given its high exposure to the upstream segment, followed by Sarawak Oil Palms and TH Plantations.
However, the earnings impact for Wilmar was more muted, cushioned by its relatively large downstream earnings (67% of group earnings).
It said following its earnings revisions, it now expected the earnings of the plantation sector to decline by 11% in 2009F (2008F: up 17%). It had also cut its dividend assumptions.
On the valuation standpoint, it said plantations companies we still trading on lofty multiples.
It cited that during the CPO price downturn in 2001, IOI’s PE valuation dropped to a low of 10 times. In comparison, based on the current CPO price assumption of RM2,300 per tonne, IOI’s fully diluted FY09F PE would be 16.6 times.
On IOI Corp’s new realised net asset value (RNAV) based target price, it decided to use the mean PE of 13 times. This coupled with its CPO price assumption of RM2,200 per tonne translated into a target price of RM3.65 per share for the group.
For Kuala Lumpur Kepong, the group’s FY09F PE would be 15.9 times based on the current CPO price of RM2,300/tonne. KL Kepong’s PE at its seven year low was about 11 times.
“We estimate KLK’s target price at RM8.25 per share assuming a 13 times PE on FY09F plantation earnings, underpinned by an average CPO price of RM2,200 per tonne,” it said.
KNM at 1.13 still the most actively traded stock this morning as KLSE in REDS ... tmr is 9:16. Knee-jerk fears ... The only active and in green counter is M3nergy(up almost 20%)!! I m not so sure about this one, perhaps benefiting from the abolishment of the IPP tax?? Poor Tenaga at 6.85 losing its energy.
IOI reaching for 4.00 soon ... at 4.08 now. Good trading opportunity here.
Asiatic at 4.72. HSplant at 1.76.
Sime below rm6 and Genting going below rm5 soon. Resorts back to 2.55 level.
SCOMI at 0.48. Going in .... soon?? ALERT
Kinstel at 0.68 ... WOW. LionInd at 1.43 and AnnJoo at 2.62.
UMW at 5.70. Wow ... long time didnt look into this 'strong' conuter and finally it gave way too. Droping below rm6 and still in good value. Support at 5.50
Pelikan reaching its support level 2.30 too.
1. Asiatic - 4.70 (L 4.70)
2. BatuKawan - 7.25(L 7.25)
3. HSPlant - 1.77(L 1.73)
4. IJMPlant - 1.75 (L 1.74)
5. IOICorp - 4.22 (L 4.06)
6.KMLoong - 1.69(L 1.68)
7. Kulim - 5.35 (L 5.30)
8. Kwantas - 2.83 (L 2.70)
9. Sime - 6.00 (L 5.95)
10.TSH - 1.80(L 1.80)
All plantation counters in RED and NEW LOWS created every week.
Saturday, September 13, 2008
DOW closed 100points lower and crude oil at 101.
Here is my long stalk list at the moment ...
1. Asiatic - 4.90 (L 4.80)
2. BatuKawan - 7.45(L 7.35)
3. HSPlant - 1.80(L 1.75)
4. IJMPlant - 1.83 (L 1.78)
5. IOICorp - 4.38 (L 4.34)
6.KMLoong - 1.71(L 1.68)
7. Kulim - 5.90 (L 5.80)
8. Kwantas - 2.79 (L 2.70)
9. Sime - 6.10 (L 5.95)
10.TSH - 1.95(L 1.95)
Oil and Gas (15th Sept)
1. Kencana 1.32 (L 1.20)
2. KNM - 1.14 (L 1.08)
3. Sapcres - 1.26 (L 0.98)
4. Scomi - 0.48 (0.475)
5. Wah Seong - 1.43(L 1.43)
Friday, September 12, 2008
LionInd at 1.46, KNM at 1.12, Scomi at 0.515, HSPlant at 1.75 and WCT at 2.58.
My LionDiv at 0.665 ... and still waiting for it to move further down before thinking of averaging down.
Many more in attractive prices but it seems that investors are running away from KLSE. Understandable, with 9:16 nearing ...
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Scomi at 0.54. Wow!! (-9.2%) ---> 0.515 (-4.6%)
Wah Seong at 1.54. Wow!! (-4.9%) ---> 1.54(unchanged)
LionInd at 1.64. Wow!! (-5.2%) ---> 1.46(-11%)
Hiap Teck at 1.14. Wow!! (-6.6%) --->1.13
HSPlant at 1.84. Wow!! (-5.6%) --->1.75(-4.9%)
WCT at 2.66. Wow!! (-5.7%) ---> 2.58 (-3%)
Muhibbah at 1.78. Wow!! (-4.8%) ---> 1.69 (-5.1%)
And my stalk-list is on ... REDS everywhere. If i have bullets, i will get ready to shoot ALL the above. But, even so .. these counters may go further down, KLSE from bad to worse ... will be worsen. Watch out!
Need to be patient ... not time to get in yet, but trading opportunities are surely there. Hit and Run or else, hold "forever". Ask Buffet, please.
12.15pm : Market VERY red this morning ... it is like a KILLING FIELD, no mercy. SAAAT-SAAAT.
KLCI at 1047, drops 15points!! Get your bullets ready to SHOOT. Now with many new lows, it should be easier to get the target, right? Be aware ... 9:16
Wednesday, September 10, 2008
Falling costs of input will help them maintain profit margins.
PETALING JAYA: Lower steel prices are not seen as having a serious impact on the earnings of steelmakers, given that input costs are likely to fall too.
According to an Aseambankers report yesterday, Kinsteel Bhd has the flexibility of changing its input mix between direct reduced iron (DRI) and scrap for the billet-making process, which currently stands at 60:40.
When scrap prices are lower, it will be more cost effective to use higher proportion of scrap vis-a-vis DRI.
Similarly, Ann Joo Resources Bhd would still be able to keep margins at 18% to 20%, as lower selling prices usually corresponded with lower costs for input like scrap, coke, iron ore and freight charges, Aseambankers said.
OSK Investment Bank analyst Ng Sem Guan told StarBiz steel companies were unlikely to see much earnings erosion in the third quarter, as “they would have forward sold with delivery lagging six to eight weeks”.
The current weak share prices were due to “overdone worries”, no thanks to the slower summer season collection, correction in steel prices and uncertainty over the supply-demand chain in China post-Olympics, he said.
Besides summer, the slower demand is also due to the Ramadhan month, which postponed buying interest from the Middle East.
Middle Eastern countries imported about 6.6% of world steel supply last year and that was likely to rise to 10% this year, Ng noted.
Meanwhile, steel prices had come off their peak following a surge late last year, he said, adding that steel demand from China was expected to recover after the Paralympic Games.
Prices would start to stabilise towards the fourth quarter of the year, he said.
Even with the current weaker prices, steel players are still enjoying profitable margins, although these may not be as lucrative as in the first-half year.
Ng noted that billets were selling at about US$800 per tonne while scrap now hovered around US$400 per tonne, which were still an attractive “spread balance”.
A Bloomberg report yesterday said Posco, the largest maker of stainless steel in Asia, was cutting output for the third consecutive month on weak demand.
Ng believed it was only natural for steel makers to shift from volume game to protecting margins. “Tight supply will eventually move prices upwards,” he said.
Aseambankers said the current weak value of steel stocks would provide some trading opportunities as third-quarter results, due in November, should be stronger quarter-on-quarter to reflect the sales booked at the peak of steel prices in the second quarter.
By then, the seasonal lull would also be over.
“While steel prices are unlikely to resume their euphoric levels of US$1,200 per tonne as seen in second quarter, prices would still be higher year-on-year in the fourth quarter at US$850 to US$900 a tonne.
“This could potentially filter into next year and lift first quarter of 2009 earnings,” it added.
Yesterday, Kinsteel share price lost 5 sen to 75.5 sen, Perwaja Holdings Bhd declined 9 sen to RM1.82 and Ann Joo dropped 8 sen to RM2.68 while Lion Industries Bhd shed 10 sen to RM1.73.
Oil moved down to 102 level ... and if it goes below 100, our GOV should cut the retail price of petrol. At RM2.55/liter, it could be reduced to 2.20 next month.
FCPO downed too ... and plantation stocks being battered kau-kau.
SIME 6.25(L), IOI 4.80(L 4.66), Asiatic 5.25(L), KLK 10.50(L),
HSPlant 1.95(L), IJMPlant 2.09(L), KIMLoong 1.80(L), ... Kwantas 2.85(steady)
Bottom-fish for plantation stocks? It is everwhere BUT is it really at the bottom NOW? Not till 9:16 should anyone get some ... ALERT.
O & G counters bearish too ... KNM(with its Borsig issue) at 1.38(L) and Dialog 0.92(L) were heavily traded yesterday, downed 5.5% and 7.5% respectively. Kencana 1.43, Sapcres 1.32, Ramunia 1.66. SCOMI 0.695
Steel Sector : Kinsteel 0.755(L), Perwaja 1.72(L), LionInd 1.73(L 1.35), Huaan 0.42(L), HiapTek 1.22(L), AnnJoo 2.68(L 2.37), Masteel 0.85(L), LionCor 0.42(L 0.40) ...
by Ooi Kok Hwa
MOST stocks sell at a certain price level influenced by the companies’ future income, the overall market conditions as well as the assets owned.
Three factors – income, market and asset approach – can be individually used to value a company.
Income approach: Under this approach, a company’s value is dependent on the present value of its future cash flows, which can be in the form of dividends, profits or cash movements.
In Malaysia, we can use this approach on companies that are paying good and consistent dividends or companies showing strong future revenue and profits.
In most times, these will show stable stock prices regardless of market conditions.
The overall condition may be weak, but these companies will be selling at high value due to the potential of their future businesses as well as the certainty of future dividend payments.
Investors will hold them for the long term and will be quite reluctant to sell these stocks as they always reward them with handsome dividend payments.
In Malaysia, these companies normally have repetitive consumer needs with products that wear out fast, are used up quickly as well as have strong brand appeal.
Examples include powdered milk, instant noodles, condensed milk, infant formula, soft drinks, canned milk, dairy products, toiletries or healthcare products. Most of these products are consumed fast and have strong brands.
Given the present weak economic environment, despite higher operating costs, especially high raw material prices, these companies still enjoy good turnover and sales, as they are able to pass the higher costs to consumers.
Even though retailers need to fork out more money to pay for their products, it is necessary, as the products have already formed part of the essential items in most households.
As a result, their financial results may not be much affected by the weak economic environment. In fact, they will still be able to reward their shareholders with good dividends.
Hence, such stocks can be purchased any time, depending on the future outlook of their businesses rather than the overall market conditions.
If these stocks’ outlook is promising and able to generate high turnover, profits and cash flows, retailers may buy them now even though the future remains bleak.
Market approach: Under this approach, the companies’ value depends on the market prices of similar types of companies. In most instances, the fluctuation of the overall market sentiment can affect their stock prices.
For example, the stock prices for companies like Telekom Malaysia Bhd, Tenaga Nasional Bhd and Malayan Banking Bhd will fluctuate based on the overall market risks and returns. Even though these stocks do pay dividends, their price movements tend to follow the overall market fluctuation.
We use price-earnings ratio or price-to-book to value these stocks, which will depend on how many times the current market price is above their earnings or book value.
Then we compare these ratios with companies in the same industry. The timing to purchase this type of stocks is important, as we need to catch them when the market touches the bottom.
Unfortunately, predicting the market bottom is a very difficult task in view of the uncertainties of the market outlook.
Asset approach: We use asset approach on companies that own a lot of assets, like land banks, buildings or other fixed assets. Under this approach, the companies’ value will depend on the types of assets owned by the companies.
Among the three approaches, this is the least important in evaluating any ongoing concern companies because they will not liquidate their assets.
When we buy into these operating companies, we are more interested in how much future cash flow that can be generated rather than to expect any cash proceeds from the disposal of their assets.
Ooi Kok Hwa is an investment adviser and managing partner of MRR Consulting
Tuesday, September 09, 2008
With recent BAD news out, Ranhill is still moving down ... at 0.76 now and i think it would go below 0.50!!
Sunway at 0.835 ... one of the few in construction sectors that i m monitoring. WCT at 2.85 and IJM at 5.10. Gamuda gained the most, +12cents, to 2.63 now. Zelan still bottoming at 1.60 now. Muhibah at 1.91.
IGB at 1.34(up 3cents), SPSetia 3.30, YNH 1.61, Suncity 2.40 and Sunrise 1.50.
LionInd 1.83, Kinsteel 0.805, Masteel 0.90, SSteel 2.26, AnnJoo 2.76, HiapTek 1.24, Mycron 0.53, CSCStel 1.28.
O & G
Dialog at 0.995, Kencana 1.47, Sapcres 1.31, KNM 1.46, Scomi 0.615, WahSeong 1.67
HSPlant 2.01(ALERT!!), Kwantas 2.86, Asiatic 5.40, IOI 4.86. Sime 6.45
Steel, O & G and Plantation are bearish at the moment. ALERT.
Monday, September 08, 2008
HSPlant at 2.01 now. ALERT.
LionDiv at 0.705, Scomi at 0.615, LCL at 1.60.
Perwaja 1.83 and Kinstel at 0.83. AnnJoo 2.80 and LionInd 1.85. All in REDS.
Saturday, September 06, 2008
Damasutra - Sesat dalam Rindu. One of my fav bands. Many more nice songs by them.
MEGA - Takdir dan Waktu. Rahmat and band with many cool hitz.
HeadWind - Kita Serupa. Such a classic song by Zainal's band.
Ella - Sembilu. Very few Malay rock ladies who really make it in Malay rocks. She is considered as the ROCK QUEEN. Yeah. She is my age!
KNM traded most actively yesterday, closed 7 cents lower at 1.43. ALERT.
Huaan 0.445, downed >9% in one active trading day. It is in financial trouble? Yet to check.
Kinstel 0.84, also downed about 9%. The listing of Perwaja at this moment might be a great mistake?
HiapTek at 1.21 now. RED ALERT.
AnnJoo 2.84 ... watch her closely, k?
Dalam Gerimis by VISA
5 top next BUY for me is : KNM, HiapTek, IGB, SIME and HSPlant. Which one will reach its bottom first and rebound the fastest?
All i need is to be patient and WAIT ...
Enjoy one of my many fav Malay rock songs : Penantian by Blackrose (translated as WAITING oleh Mawar Hitam).
Friday, September 05, 2008
Now, a decision to make ... if LionDiv going much lower soon, should i SELL at a loss NOW and buy back when it reaches its bottom? The question is WHY buying into it last week in the first place? Wrong strategies again? I really need to learn ...
Looking into strong counters for stablity. Even so, nothing being spared in the killing field. No BUYING again till i clear my system. Others i hv to hold "forever". Salvage whatever i have got and ... sit on it.
Looking at the brighter side, some counters will bounce-up strongly when the market recovering. But, WHICH one will be your pick?
So many counters reaching for bottoms and you never know when exactly they will recover, if ever. If LionDiv is not a safe place, the i dont really know where else i should hide.
May be KNM ... or IOI? Genting or Resorts still people's fav?
Talk is cheap but the mistakes can be painful, especially when you are making the similar mistakes. Remember HSPlant that i was so convinced it has reached its bottom at 2.48, buying at 2.50 only to throw it away the next day at 2.40? And it went all the way down to 2.25, before rebounded to 2.45 ... staying there for a while before zrrooom down to NEW lows!! It was closed at 2.13 yeserday!! Yes, i m still stalking at her with an aim to BUY when it bottom-out. Easier said than done ... WHEN and WHERE is it bottom??
So, by selling off LionDiv ... i could only watch it moving further down before BUYING again once the downtrend halt.
10.30am : LionDiv at 0.715 and Scomi at 0.60. HSPlant at 2.09. Dialog 1.04
AnnJoo 2.86. KNM 1.48. Kinstel at 0.87. LionInd 1.89
Asiatic @ 5.53. IOICorp at 4.90 and Sime at 6.45
3pm: KLCI at 1071 and still going south.
LionDiv 0.70, LionInd 1.87, Scomi 0.59, Hiaptek 1.22, KNM 1.46, WCT 2.86, Alam 1.77, Dialog 1.03, IGB 1.32, MPHB 1.39, Kinstel 0.86 ... and the list of REDS in my stalk-list continues ...
Lesson : Never try to time the bottom and never to buy stocks that in downtrend. Ride the high tides, not the low tide and you never know how low it could go.
Thursday, September 04, 2008
HSPlant shed >7% to closed at 2.15!! Yes, below the lowest of 2.20 recently.
LionDiv at 0.76 ... still moving down every bit, everyday. So, watch out. I admit that i went in too early ... wonder WHY i like Lion so much? Hmm .. how about getting LionInd instead? LionInd at 1.95 now. Another babe i m stalking ... Anyway, will LionDiv get more when it reaches <0.70 color="#cc0000">Huaan at 0.50
AnnJoo at 3.04(-14cents) and worth looking into it ... another steel player, Kinstel at a low 0.94
One of the most heavily traded counter for past weeks is KNM. It is at 1.52 at the moment, downed 5cents.
KLCI at 1085.38 (-1.61) ... and i guess it will be another inactive week with KLCI hovering around 1080 level. Everyone is anticipating anxiously the SEPT 16th date. Will Anwar becoming a new PM(with as many as 30 running dogs jump ship)? Will that shake the whole KLSE or will the investors see that Malaysia political scene is OVER? Stablising and back to business?
For every investors/players of KLSE, we all hope we could get KLSE moving again ... it is almost 'dead' ... and if one could not hold on, just take the LOSS and get out of KLSE. That is the whole game ... for the brave, it is seen as opportunity to collect good stocks and HOLD till it recover, if ever.
12.15pm : LionDiv at 0.75 ... Scomi still at 0.63. Huaan 0.495. Hiaptek 1.28. HSplant 2.11.
Kinstel at 0.915 with Perwaja trading below rm2 now, at 1.98. Much below its IPO at the moment. I read about Perwaja proposed IPO value at around rm4-rm5? Who was that analyst? Should shoot them for getting it so wrong? Hmm ... unpredictable, in the world of trading.
Ten Market Rules - from Merill Lynch.Why reinvent the investment strategy wheel?
Rule #1: Markets tend to return to the mean over time. If you go back in history, every market is mean reverting. Asia Pac, today is trading at the mean.
#2: Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other. Oil is the classic example.
#3:There are no new era's, excesses are never permanent. Remember "peak oil" and the "new economy".
#4: Exponentially rapidly rising and falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. Chinese equities and home prices!
#5: The public buys the most at the top, the least at the bottom. Emerging markets!
#6: Fear & greed are stronger than long term resolve. Markets bottom, when the public throws in the towel.
#7: Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names. China looked liked Cisco last year.
#8: Bear markets have 3 stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. We appear now to be in stage 3.
#9: When all experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen. Short $ and long Euro.
#10: Bull markets are more fun than bear markets."In business the greatest compliment is a referral "
Wednesday, September 03, 2008
DOW closed slightly lower yesterday and Oil at US109.65 now, below 110 for the first time in months. Will it retrace further down below US100? Plantation counters will be affected by this drop.
Sept will not be a good month, so we shall wait for SEPT 16th. Perhaps, DSAI becoming primere, the KLSE will be shaken harder ... dissshhh ... RUN RUN RUN ...
Market Cap : Scomi 679.4m(#93), LionDiv 604.5m (#97).
12.30pm : LionDiv at 0.775 and Scomi at 0.625.
HSPlant downed to 2.18!! New low. ALERT!! Told you i m going to get you back, but you need to go much below, k? Hmm ...
Huaan @ 0.51 Hiaptek @ 1.33.
KNM @ 1.53. Alam @ 1.77. MPHB @ 1.42. Titan @ 1.02
Ruberex @1.02 and Supermx @ 1.05 ... going to bottom. Kossan 2.51. Topglove @ 4.00.
Tuesday, September 02, 2008
It is still NOT time to go in .. perhaps, I should consider to cut-loss and clear my positions. Or just let it be ... wait patiently while accumulating more funds to average down the LionDiv. Hmm ...
10.45am : Well, LionDiv going down below 0.8 and at 0.79 vs 0.795 now. ALERT. I wont go in this week but need to monitor and to see if i should buy more into it.
11am : Wow .. LionDiv stil moving down ... 0.775 vs 0.78 now. Stop loss at 0.75 or as planned, BUY when it goes below 0.75!!
3pm : KLCI downed 13+ points so far ... KNM reaching for 1.60(at 1.57 and most active counter today). GLC counters are vunerable ... Ranhill ran down the hill and at 0.885(-14.5 cents). It reported huge loss in the recent quarterly report.
Monday, September 01, 2008
Kinsteel is also worth looking into now.
Linkin Park - Leave Out All The Rest. My fav from their album "Minutes to Midnight".