Friday, August 26, 2016
I was reading about "Tactical Investing" ... it is interesting and I am very interested to learn more of that.
Inverse ETF : example DOG
So ... I have spent my 2-3 hours tonight to learn a little about these. And I m just sharing what I m doing ...
Thursday, August 25, 2016
FGV : Grabbed her timely at RM2 ... and all my q for lower RM2 not done!! See the support, see the volume ... see the 8% diving rule. BUY. So small lots done ... and sold at RM2.11. It was too fast ... done RM2 ... rebounded to high RM2.19 before closed at RM2.11... all in less than half hour!!
Yesterday, I went for AirAsia ... bought RM2.95 to RM3 ... queued all the way down to RM2.90 ... and sold at RM3.04. It is meant for day-trading ... very fast. Today, RM3 broken and I was queueing RM2.76 and below.
The day before was FLBhd dived 8% .... grabbed at RM1.57 ... but sold at RM1.56 closing as it didn't rebound to my RM1.65 selling point. Too bad. FLbhd went lower yesterday but rebounded a little today. Heard that KYY sold FLBhd?
Maybe I should try OFI if it dives 8% tmr? Issue of liquidity in this one ...
Perhaps AAX ? Just watch which one dive 8% or more, I will consider.
Tired ... and time to rest.
AirAsia : Assuming I have shorted at RM3, I will like to double my SHORT at RM2.50(instead of taking profit). So, at RM2.90 now, do nothing.
Time frame : Till market crash or take profit at RM2 for the RM3 portion and RM1.50 for the RM2.50 level.
By the time it reach RM1 ... we do dollar-averaging AGAIN ... for the LONG position. Continue till de-listed or taken private!!
Note : AirAsia is the BEST trading stock in KLSE as I told everyone. If u can trade well, AirAsia could always fly ... full with news. Haha.
Above is a no brainer way of trading AirAsia .... but I need to find an instrument to SHORT AirAsia and HOLD.
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
AirAsia potentially breaking support RM3 today. Shall wait for closing and check again. When AirAsia at RM2.50, my short-AA will be done ... and I will record it here.
Do you think it will close above RM3? Or the good report is coming ... so, they pressing it down to buy cheap?
I don't know ...
Wednesday morning ... sleepy morning as it drizzled.
Last night, I had an e-meeting with some 40-50 attendees ... regarding the importance of EXIT point. When we buy, we need to plan ... to EXIT. Either cut-loss or take profit. No point holding on to stocks too long as it is 2016, where only certain theme-play ...
So ... I will have one more similar (a repeat for those missed it) perhaps ... when I m 'free'. Yes ... will need to help many to clear their stocks that stuck UP THERE for months or years ... and market not even crash YET.
As I m writing, FLBHD at 1.53 ... what do you think of those bought around RM2 or RM2.50 or RM3? Applying dollar-averaging ... buy RM1.50 next level, then RM1 ... and 50cents next. We don't know ... but make sure we sell if rebound up every 50cents. RM3 to RM1.50 ... it has dropped almost 50% from the peak now.
See FLBHD breakdown the support RM1.68 ... that is technically very ugly. I shall wait for it to dive further ...
"As trader, I do not care much ... but I wont buy FLBhd as it is downtrending and quiet now. Many waiting for the coming report. Good or bad? If bad ... then only I might consider. haha"
Days ago (22nd Aug), I wrote about FLBhd as it is a stock mentioned by EC and he watsapp me again to remind all to cut-loss FLBhd as the 'Taiwanese' cannot be trusted.
If we do not cut-loss ... EITHER we are investors and will BUY MORE at lower price (logically) OR we buy to trade ... we got stuck!!
This is 2016 ... where risk in equity-markets at high level. So, to average down ... I disagree. Not to cut-loss and stuck ... I disagree too. So ... I have an e-meeting for those interested to LISTEN.
Don't worry ... I could reach out to less that 0.001% of those in markets and of that 0.001%, only 20% will LISTEN. Out of those 20% who listen, only small 20% will execute!! So ... we are down to few successful ones.
EC also said that I m doing GOOD DEED (Yes, EC ... I m a believe in good karma, good deeds too) and God will bless me. He wished I had been writing this blog in 2004 year when he was in market and he could learn so much and not lose so much!! He is my blog-reader!!
There is a young newbie came in the e-meeting last night. He said these days, traders are more knowledgeable .... I disagreed. I know he meant ... INTERNET and information but trading/investing is not who know more or got more information. Not that leh ... otherwise, all librarians are doing well, right? (WB's words).
Time to do my reading .... about CRASH PROFIT and exercise.
Market crash in 1987 ... then in 1997 ... then in 2008 ... are we expecting another crash ... in 2019?
I do not say it will crash ... I hope it will be 2019 as I will have more time to prepare but we never know ... so, I m preparing now.
I have an 1.5hours of e-meeting to talk about CUT LOSS and how important it is not to get STUCK in market ... and yes, using FLBHD as an example we do not wish to fall-in-love with stocks!!
Time to rest ... night
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
FLBhd : Broken support today with huge volume. Must be due to not good reports?
1. Please join my meeting, Tuesday, 23 August, 2016 at 9:30 PM.
Meeting ID: 287-190-941
So ... I will take this opportunity to talk about CUT LOSS (as part of my #1 : Capital Preservation)
Join me tonight ... as I re-wind and re-play the CUT LOSS mantra ... haha
3pm : FLBHD .... breaking the crucial important support of RM1.68 currently.
ALERT to those many still holding at the TOP there ... is the result out? Check it out. Check forums too ... if there is all saying die-die ... or start cursing, time to buy.
Morning song ... to share ...
KLCI down 2-3points ... nothing interesting as I m not into market, except shorted FKLI.
So ... I m doing my 'reading' work ... selected the book titled "Crash Profit" and selected #11 : Winning Minority.
Yeah .. then ... I went to pool-side, lying there ... reading. Mind clearer ... watching the cloud. haha.
There ... my reading area, fyi. Then, I will workout in gym for few minutes ... take bath and back to my desk.
Let me share a little about that chapter-11. First of all, it is about an investor ... a biz-person, who never knew about investing much and placed his money with mutual funds. During crash, the funds were crushed ... and was devastated. So ... he decided to learn about investing by himself.
SHORT SELLING is the idea ... to hedge against our long in stocks (including blue-chips). Another point shared is to check on reverse index-funds. Yes ... these two are in my mind.
Can we short KLSE's stocks ... and HOLD ... then, short in stages? Can anyone answer me? I would be glad to create a fund --- to short some individual-stocks (such as AirAsia).
No ... I m not talking about buying into put-warrants (short expiring period and liquidity risk).
Let me take our darling under-valued AirAsia as example. Remembered when I used AEON as an example for dollar-averaging. Now, we are going to do the OPPOSITE. That is what short-selling about.
Assuming I am allocating RM10k for each level.
AirAsia : SHORTED at RM3 done last week. Taking profit level would be RM2.50 and will update once done.
Queue to short next at RM3.50. Today, AirAsia at RM3.20 level.
Next level to short is RM4 ... and every 50cents up.
Assume : We have RM100k allocated for her.
Level 1 : 3 x 3330units = RM9,990 used.
So ... the chapter basically stating that we should hedge our portfolios with shorting the index.
Will need to go for lunch ... classes and continue to rest at nights (preparing for exams).
Note : Check on reverse index-fund trading in US.
Monday, August 22, 2016
10.25 am : FKLI up 3-4 points, at 1690 ... KLCI flat at 1687.
Besides FGV, DRBHcom ... and some GLCs "undervalued" counters (LOL), nothing much moving. Election-in-play? Hmm ... UEMS, MRCB ... those counters la.
I m at café again ... reading, listening to songs while .... once a while check on markets.
This is the song I m re-playing. Nice catchy music. haha
As I m writing ... KLCI green-ing?
10.35 am : FCPO gapped up 20points.
Last night ... I had an hour e-meeting (I do open to all), talking about the 10-counters written by The Edge ... and wanting to take UliCorp (today up without much liquidity ... how to trade?)
This is a PIE chart (check the chart of PIE la) ... yes, correctly written about writers/bloggers. TIME we spent to write a page ... haha ... 'stare into space', 'watch youtube videos', 'read faceboook posts' .... haha ... so true.
10.45 am : AirAsia ... the darling of KLSE in red for a while moments ago, below RM3.20 .... yes, it is RM3 plus now. Undervalued. haha.
Ok ... since I m free, let me share a little story ... about this young successful man, in advertising-line.
He is EC. It was kinda impromptu ... just days, he watsapp me, telling me he is my blog reader and which to treat me coffee!! Sure ... but as my list kinda long for to oblige, I have to plan for the date. Well, then ... that week ... my Friday appointment was postponed and since I m free and like to listen to his stories (from Sabah ... so, I give priority? haha).
Anyway ... he was sincere to meet me ... treated me nice dinner, as we chat and talked about our 'past' ... our struggles.
His family was poor ... and his dad failed in biz ... and they shifted to Sabah. During the struggle, the family almost fall apart ... but God helped them. His dad managed to get a job ... in timber-line. It changed their fortune .... and now he & brothers are doing very well ...great story to listen and to know how STRONG humans could be ... and while they succeeded, they are still humble.
Yes ... kayu-balak ... there are many timber-tycoons in Sabah-Sarawak. They are very rich ... as our country is a rich country ... but both states are one of the poorest in Malaysia due to co##uption ... and illegal logging is common there.
Anyway ... he lost a lot in KLSE punting at the year 2005-2006 ... and luckily went out before the crash! And he missed the whole opportunities during 2008 crash. We were talking about how we could prepare for the coming crash ... and yes, I asked him to join me during crash (keep the cash now ... as he is reading these lines, perhaps).
Now ... there is something very interesting came out from him. His father knew FLBhd's boss well as they have biz-deal .... yes, they supply the logs to Focus-Lumber and he said he will never buy the stock!! He grew up ... playing in the factory and surrounding area. So ... I told him ... FLBhd reported good profits and also a strong cash-positive counter now and KYY is promoting her!! Well ... he is adamant that ... FLBhd is not a stock for him to buy!!
Interesting ... his perception on the company is not well, I guess.
As trader, I do not care much ... but I wont buy FLBhd as it is downtrending and quiet now. Many waiting for the coming report. Good or bad? If bad ... then only I might consider. haha
Time to go ...
Sunday, August 21, 2016
8.15 pm : I m resting at home now ... Sunday is a rest day. I brought my family to National Library (after since 2011)
I m glad as I managed to borrow few books related to market-crash books!!
This will be my one-month reading ... need to wake up 5am to read these and do some homework --- preparing for exams!!
Click the chart above to enlarge. This is a chart for BULLISH camp ... crushing those gloomy-bear camp .... nailed it. haha.
In 2012(I think), I attended TTB's invest-talk at KLCC during the InvestFair ... and he was very bearish ... stating that market is not cheap and the economies are in bad shape. I disagreed to him and still fully invested in KLSE and in fact started my trading group!
Today is 2016 ... I will slowly read Icap's newsletter again ... yes, I m using some common-sense ... then, it tells me that it is time to be cautious. Take 50% off from market.
Rest ... read ... and prepare.
Ok ... will have an e-meeting tonight since I m 'free'. My one hour is still very precious ...
I will share this article online and show some of the charts related to the stocks.
Please join my meeting, Sunday, 21 August, 2016 at 10:00 PM Malay Peninsula Standard Time.
click here to join : https://global.gotomeeting.com/join/167283413
Meeting ID: 167-283-413
Not at your computer? Click the link to join this meeting from your iPhone®, iPad®, Android® or Windows Phone® device via the GoToMeeting app.
See you online ... later.
Good Morning ... LCW lost but made all of us proud of his achievements. Liverpool lost to Burnley is to show how inconsistent their performances are .. for past years. Nevertheless, I will always support Malaysia and ... Liverpool.
Yesterday I have another coffee-date with a new-found friend ... yes, I have many and didn't have the time to write about many of them ... but I will. Since yesterday's date is still fresh ... let me share what we discussed about.
Note : A reader does not necessary believe that I really meet many investors/traders ... it is just my wild imagination-lah .. but at least could bring back some pointers or experiences shared hear. It is meant to share experiences on HOW many of us ... went through market-crashes.
He is Mr DY .,, seen his parents lost their fortune in 1997-1998 crash but they manage to survive. A strong young man who just came out from Uni then ... and he said during that time, it was very bad and harsh. They have to struggle as ... the crash almost tore the family apart.
He worked hard ... an engineer in profession. Then, he opened his own company ... and managed to pull the whole family together. I admired such successful person ... strong in characters while maintained being humble. Mr DY ... I know you are reading this line, I do mean it that I respect your characters ... and thanks for sharing long strong about 1997-1998 what your family went through. Most people would like to forget about those painful moments, their struggles ... but you managed to make me felt so humbled. Yeah ... market-crash will humble all of us.
DY ... went into stock-market around 2004-2005, and initially he was an investor. He buy good stocks (such as Genting and BAT) and hold ... but moving into market for 1-2 years, due to bullish market ... he got little carried away and started to buy into HOT-stocks ... and listened to recommendation of his remisier. As he got busier ... he does not time to monitor closely or read about news related to those hot-stocks. Some of the stocks he bought/punted going lower but he thought they will rebound ...as it was at end of 2007, where market was bullish .. but his stocks not recovering well ... and one of the stock in his portfolio is down by 50%.
We talked about cut-loss ... why didn't sell? I asked.
He knew "BUSY" was just an excuse ... but refusal to lose is more exact. Well, the ghost of 1998 haunted him ... seeing his parents crushed by market. So ... he was kinda lost.
Note : Example ... market is bullish now, some thought Sumatec will recover to 50cents?
He continued to buy a few more stocks, ignoring the few stocks in his portfolio which he failed to dispose. Indeed, it is like collecting more ... hot-lousy stocks. He is trapped into his own mindset ... and asking around doesn't help him much.
Why didn't you cut-loss?
He was lying to himself ... he told me. He was in denial ... and no one guide him to cut-loss ... or someone waking him up, to make him do something different!! FEAR of losing gripping us.
Lessons : ALWAYS know why we buy a stock ... place a CUT LOSS point (say minus 10%, sell).
DY said that he wish I would blog during 2006 period of time and write about the importance of CUT LOSS. Well, somehow ... remisiers asking many to buy, only few good remisiers teaching their clients to CUT LOSS. Why?
In 2008 ... most of his counters tanked badly. By then, he has collected more than 10 counters!! Market started to show weaknesses in Mac 2008 ... then in Nov 2008.
Lessons : Do not keep buying other counters without dealing with the existing ones in our portfolio.
He missed the whole 2008 crash as he is stuck in many ... and most of his funds allocated for stocks are inside. At least he could still laugh it off and shared with me his experiences ... recalling how painful 1997-1998 crash was and ... he himself inside the crash in 2008 ... and yes, I see such a strong personality. Perhaps, that explained why DY done well in his biz ...
I will not talk about other things we shared (haha ... you are funny too!) but focus in stock-markets and what I could share with my readers here our experiences of 2008-crash.
Yes ... there are many of them said that they will join me during market-crash. Seriously, I do not know if I could really capitalise well in coming crash, but at least I know I have tried to prepare ... at least I would not blame myself for being ignorant and didn't CHANGE. I would not want to lie to myself ... living in denial like many out there. DY, you are right ... there is NO ONE out there who will guide others ... to get out of their losing stocks and NO ONE to be blamed.
We have to CUT LOSS ... and he did cleared all his stocks in 2008, painfully lost a lot.
I do believe we all need to make that PAINFUL decision ... and LEARN from our mistakes, learn from others mistakes. It is never easy ... as we all know how difficult it is to CUT LOSS many of our stocks during market crash. Then ... we will be in FEAR ... fear of losing. Many quit and gave up (which is good too ... if they could not take the pain further).
DY ... I could not promise you or anyone that we could MAKE IT well this coming crash. But, yes ... we shall meet again to discuss further what we would be doing DURING crash. No worry, market will not crash yet ... and it wont recover in days. We will have time to do our homework ... just make sure you do not BUY MORE into stocks now. As you will want to join my trading-workshop (no plan for next one, end of year .... perhaps), we will be in touch.
Reduce your position ... keep 50% cash is my advice. Be patient ... let the craziness on and glad we have got over our painful 2008-crash experiences. Looking forward to the coming one ...
Thanks for the coffee ... and yes, my pleasure to meet you too.
Note : Will write another 1 or 2 of my coffee-date later.
After the losses ... time to look into market-crashes clip ... and remind myself to be prepared.
This clip is easy to understand (tho over-simplified)
Note : Lee Chong Wei tried his best and we all supported his courage. great.
Now ... I will rest.
Saturday, August 20, 2016
This cocky young fella caught my attention as he criticising Marc Faber (many out there talking about TTB who still keeping cash ... and been negative about equities since 2012!!) ...
He might got a point that those 'bearish' gurus getting things VERY wrong to keep playing the crash-music ... but he is VERY arrogant due to he WANTS to promote himself .. as a technical-guru and if you have an hour to waste, you may want to listen to the clip above.
These are those many ... out there, who trying to promote themselves. He is doing it in extreme by way by de-meaning Marc Faber ... and as we knew Soros buying into 'puts', he must be laughing as Soros registering some paper-loss.
Look ... those hedge-fund managers and investment fund-managers are being entrusted to keep their investment 'safe' ... so that they could survive any un-foreseen circumstances ... they managed BILLIONS of dollars.
If anyone could do better ... apply in. Get the hot-seat ... and show the world how the technical-analysis could profit the funds in huge way.
He is creating GREED ... similar to many PROMOTERS of software, trading-courses, trading-platforms, newsletters, products etc etc ... if you attend some talks, you will know what I mean. Especially those forex-gurus (from spore) who shown you their fast-cars.
Marc Faber : http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
By calling others 'stupid' ... he lost the respect, even if he is 'right'.
How many times we heard of those into technical-analysis profit HUGELY in stock-markets? Another modern Jesse Livermore?
How many people do you REALLY know who earn millions ... trading?
I will rather listen to Warren Buffett while learning technical-charting. I would remember what many successful investors told me about INVESTING ..
Uncle Ben said that Fundamental Analysis come first ... must combine with Technical Analysis (use simple candle-sticks, volumes and ONE indicators ... support-resistance). If anyone use complicated indicators ... then, they are PROMOTERS of indicators as it gives contradicting signals. Also, Uncle Ben does not believe WAVE THEORY, FIBO-retracement and more ... which is very similar to my belief.
So .. we want to listen to what we want ... I do prefer to listen to those EXPERIENCED ones rather than the young-promoter (and alike) above.
When there are more people believe in these promoters, then ... we might see euphoria(which we need very much) .. prior to crash.
Note : I still do not agree with him de-meaning Marc Faber or whoever as we all have our own rights to believe what we wanted to.
The Edge giving us few of the stocks held by RHB Asset Management ... to check on the SELLDOWN of few of their counters. We shall check on the charts rather than speculate on the "WHYs".
Some of the counters are illiquid ... so, when a fund wants to exit, they have to SELL at any price lower due to lacking of buyers! That is the RISK of buying into illiquid counters. As traders, I will always advised my members to buy into LIQUID stocks so that we could exit ... easier. If we are buying HUGE position into a counter, we have to make sure it is liquid(high and consistent volume) ...otherwise, we are INVESTING (buy to hold) and these SELLDOWN could be seen as opportunities to collect more once it hit the floor.
Esceram : That engulfing candle looks good ... will check. I have traded Esceram few times when it was uptrending. So ... now, time to re-lok for any trading opportunities.
I m creating a new watch-list for these counters .... for next week trading-idea.
I will try to find time ... to share ''The Edge" ... my opinions. It is hard to find time these days (due to my laziness too. haha)
Also ... I have few coffee-dates notes and pointers to share, especially from Uncle Ben.
Tmr I will have another coffee-date with an experienced person who has been in market for years(longer than me). We shall hear from his point of views about his preparations ... for the coming market crash. Thanks for treating me coffee ...
Have a nice weekend and hope LCW could bring back the cheers. He beat LinDan, what a game to watch. Our mens double brought back another silver. great!!